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207 posts

Master Geek


  #2436087 11-Mar-2020 00:11
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Good web site on different strains of coronavirus can be found here https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=radial


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Uber Geek


  #2436088 11-Mar-2020 00:53
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debo:

 

 

 

Good web site on different strains of coronavirus can be found here https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=radial

 

 

Yes - but note that unless there's evidence that observed difference in genotype means anything useful in how the disease works if you're infected, then that's only really useful for tracing disease spread. Most (all?) of the mutations identified so far do not mean that there are different "strains" - they're just random mutations of junk RNA.


 
 
 
 


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Uber Geek


  #2436100 11-Mar-2020 07:30
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Anything more complicated than a Haynes manual is too complicated for me. If biology books were written more like them I'd probably have been a doctor. 

 

Seems like this is now slowing down a bit? I think we'll have a better picture of whether we're heading for Italian-style meltdown by this time next week. 


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  #2436102 11-Mar-2020 07:42
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GV27:

 

Anything more complicated than a Haynes manual is too complicated for me. If biology books were written more like them I'd probably have been a doctor. 

 

Seems like this is now slowing down a bit? I think we'll have a better picture of whether we're heading for Italian-style meltdown by this time next week. 

 

 

I can understand it all, just not the bits after "Hi"

 

We wont get like Italy, not even close, but if it goes from 5 in AKL to 15 in AKL and others scattered around the country, its spreading easily, slowed down by less population and less density. Thats when uber panic will set in for cautious NZ, when any town may have it, allowing for the fact that if its spreading steadily, there will always be cases that exist that arent reported yet. Hard to know. We allow so many into the country from affected countires including non North Italy/Europe, its hard to know


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  #2436107 11-Mar-2020 08:04
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Fred99:

 

... because as far as we know, that's where seasonal flu (still H1N1) started, it's all descended from that pandemic.  

 

 

Seasonal flu was present before 1918... "Spanish" flu was noted because of its much worse virulence than regular flu. This from a program on Sky last night about 1918 pandemic which referenced contemporary documents.

 

Incidentally, that program suggested that the Spanish flu actually originated in the USA (from wild ducks to farmed poultry to humans) and was transported to Europe by American troops, where it spread from France to Spain. In countries other than neutral Spain, reporting on the flu was suppressed. I was surprised that it spread quite quickly to Germany, presumably via neutral Holland.

 

 


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  #2436111 11-Mar-2020 08:17
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Read this today in the Herald:

“Large-scale public events can proceed, but it's up to organisers to ensure people can practise good hygiene at the event, and up to everyone who attends to ensure they don't put others at risk by attending if they are unwell," the ministry said in a statement.”

Seems overly reliant on nobody making a wrong decision and everyone doing what they should which somewhat flies in the face of human nature!





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  #2436113 11-Mar-2020 08:23
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Geektastic: Read this today in the Herald:

“Large-scale public events can proceed, but it's up to organisers to ensure people can practise good hygiene at the event, and up to everyone who attends to ensure they don't put others at risk by attending if they are unwell," the ministry said in a statement.”

Seems overly reliant on nobody making a wrong decision and everyone doing what they should which somewhat flies in the face of human nature!

 

Yep.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120124594/uber-driver-says-he-will-work-unless-very-ill-despite-coronavirus-outbreak

 

 


 
 
 
 


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  #2436114 11-Mar-2020 08:27
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Geektastic: Read this today in the Herald:

“Large-scale public events can proceed, but it's up to organisers to ensure people can practise good hygiene at the event, and up to everyone who attends to ensure they don't put others at risk by attending if they are unwell," the ministry said in a statement.”

Seems overly reliant on nobody making a wrong decision and everyone doing what they should which somewhat flies in the face of human nature!

 

We are a nation essentially in denial, but will change when we start getting confirmation of regular community transmission. Likely to be occurring now but not identified.

 

Expect significant social distancing to become the norm within weeks.


74 posts

Master Geek


  #2436116 11-Mar-2020 08:34
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Tinkerisk:

 

robocat:

 

Germany’s 0 deaths might be due to a different strain, or it may be that it has been incubating there for less time and/or the health systems haven’t been overwhelmed yet.

 

 

It's 2 fatalities since yesterday and (currently very critical) more to be expected for today or tomorrow (unpublished). So it seems we enter the hot phase now.

 

 

 

 

I Believe Germany is being ultra aggressive in their testing for the virus, much more so than any other nation. This means they are picking up most of the mild/asymptomatic cases. 

 

They are also picking up cases earlier than other countries.


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  #2436119 11-Mar-2020 08:35
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dafman:

 

Geektastic: Read this today in the Herald:

“Large-scale public events can proceed, but it's up to organisers to ensure people can practise good hygiene at the event, and up to everyone who attends to ensure they don't put others at risk by attending if they are unwell," the ministry said in a statement.”

Seems overly reliant on nobody making a wrong decision and everyone doing what they should which somewhat flies in the face of human nature!

 

We are a nation essentially in denial, but will change when we start getting confirmation of regular community transmission. Likely to be occurring now but not identified.

 

Expect significant social distancing to become the norm within weeks.

 

 

Agree. I know people who says its pointless as not everyone plays ball. If it spreads here, you're right, many will keep clear of others, and the Uber example I just gave will have few rides


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Uber Geek


  #2436120 11-Mar-2020 08:39
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Someone may find this interesting:

Viral evolution

Viral evolution refers to the heritable genetic changes that a virus accumulates during its life time, which can arise from adaptations in response to environmental changes or the immune response of the host.

Because of their short generation times and large population sizes, viruses can evolve rapidly.

Latest Research and Reviews

https://www.nature.com/subjects/viral-evolution

207 posts

Master Geek


  #2436121 11-Mar-2020 08:41
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Fred99:

 

Yes - but note that unless there's evidence that observed difference in genotype means anything useful in how the disease works if you're infected, then that's only really useful for tracing disease spread. Most (all?) of the mutations identified so far do not mean that there are different "strains" - they're just random mutations of junk RNA.

 

 

They are mapping where in the genes the mutations are occurring.  They also know what some of the genes do. So in the graph below, the 'S' gene is responsible for producing the protein that binds with the ACE2 receptor. So mutations in this area may change how effective the virus binds to the ACE2 receptor.

 


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  #2436128 11-Mar-2020 09:15
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dafman:

 

 

 

We are a nation essentially in denial, but will change when we start getting confirmation of regular community transmission. Likely to be occurring now but not identified.

 

Expect significant social distancing to become the norm within weeks.

 

 

I believe this is largely due to muppets saying its just the Flu.





Mike
Change Management Consultant
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

He waka eke noa


2068 posts

Uber Geek


  #2436135 11-Mar-2020 09:18
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MikeB4:

 

dafman:

 

We are a nation essentially in denial, but will change when we start getting confirmation of regular community transmission. Likely to be occurring now but not identified.

 

Expect significant social distancing to become the norm within weeks.

 

 

I believe this is largely due to muppets saying its just the Flu.

 

 

Never got this argument. If you have a real flu, like proper influenza, you should not be going to work either.  


328 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2436139 11-Mar-2020 09:29
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Geektastic: Read this today in the Herald:

“Large-scale public events can proceed, but it's up to organisers to ensure people can practise good hygiene at the event, and up to everyone who attends to ensure they don't put others at risk by attending if they are unwell," the ministry said in a statement.”

Seems overly reliant on nobody making a wrong decision and everyone doing what they should which somewhat flies in the face of human nature!

 

 

 

Another typical Jacinda decision, or rather lack of.


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