2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2672406 12-Mar-2021 18:55

tdgeek:

antonknee:

Australia travel bubble - yes it's time. Obviously there are risks but I think we can manage these. It's quite right that if we do get a case from AU there were be a massive media upheaval, but that can't be helped when a significant quantity of journalists in this country are little more than hacks.

Use that as an opportunity to reduce overall MIQ numbers and free up some hotels to be used as hotels again. If we kept the same overall number of MIQ places we increase our risk exposure massively, simply because it will mean more people coming from Covid hotspots rather than the current 40% from effectively Covid-free Australia. Ultimately reducing the number of people coming here from Covid hotspots reduces our risk and the likelihood of a case leaking from the border.

Our response to the pandemic has hardly been perfect but overall it has been very, very good. I think a lot of people simply want to complain because they don't like the colour of the current government, and are not actually pointing out valid criticisms of our response. That said, there are some aspects of our response that deserve to be challenged and should be improved - but I would also say some commenters (not referring to GZers) don't do this constructively.

100%

Ive not been in favour of the bubble, I saw too may risks on both sides. But it can't stay like this forever. Outbreaks will happen as long as we freely and happily bring back Kiwis, but the recent recoveries from an outbreak on both sides have been acceptable. That's the turning point. Its time to push that button. The Govt will lag on that Im sure, and the recent AUS-NZ deportation issues aren't a great help either.

Won't Australia be far more progressed with their immunistaion? NZs economy is very venerable until we get the builk of our population immunized, which is going to be months away. I see South Auckland is a priority area. But I think Auckland in general should also be a priority, because it is were most MIQ cases are held. Otherwise we are at very high risk of another lockdown. Where as countries like the UK which started immunization earlier will be able to get back to normal far earlier than NZ, and Australia will also likely get back to normal faster than NZ, as they have CSL making vaccines

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DS248

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#2672412 12-Mar-2021 19:06

floydbloke:

DS248:

Anyone know of a local site with a running total of vaccinations for NZ?

eg. similar to this one for AU

https://covidlive.com.au/vaccinations

DS248 Something like this maybe:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=~NZL

Shows data up to 3 March so can't vouch for its accuracy/update frequency sorry.

More up to date

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/vaccine-tracker-how-many-kiwis-have-been-vaccinated-and-how-do-we-compare-with-the-rest-of-the-world/ENMCOHM5QW6W3UN6MRMCOQKO2U/

tdgeek

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#2672501 12-Mar-2021 21:17

mattwnz:

Won't Australia be far more progressed with their immunistaion? NZs economy is very venerable until we get the builk of our population immunized, which is going to be months away. I see South Auckland is a priority area. But I think Auckland in general should also be a priority, because it is were most MIQ cases are held. Otherwise we are at very high risk of another lockdown. Where as countries like the UK which started immunization earlier will be able to get back to normal far earlier than NZ, and Australia will also likely get back to normal faster than NZ, as they have CSL making vaccines

Lets say vaccines aren't a thing yet. NZ and Australia have done well. I'm acutely aware that Australia is far ahead of NZ as far as Covid response is concerned. And Australia is happy to have MIQ free travellers entering Australia from NZ. That math tells me we should too, just treat the two countries as one country.

Immunisation, that doesn't seem to matter as we haven't and Australia have, and they are happy to have us arrive, MIQ free.

South Auckland is not a priority area as we would be allowing people in from a safe country. And they even are already happy to have us in with no MIQ, in fact that started weeks ago. So we are apparently safe, and Australia is apparently safer.

We are not a high risk of lockdown. Australia has had more, but they apparently have a better record than us, as often stated here.

NZ is already back to normal, so is Australia. UK , no thanks.

- Little of the above is my exact personal opinion, its just incessant "facts" stated here repeatedly. So Ive used them as basis for my reply to you.

My opinion is that its time to form an Australian bubble. Both sides are under as much control as can be expected. Both sides have managed outbreaks well, so any further outbreaks and there will be, can be managed as one combined nation. But we have the benefit of tourism each way, and family interaction.

Scott3

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#2672514 12-Mar-2021 21:49

tdgeek:

Lets say vaccines aren't a thing yet. NZ and Australia have done well. I'm acutely aware that Australia is far ahead of NZ as far as Covid response is concerned. And Australia is happy to have MIQ free travellers entering Australia from NZ. That math tells me we should too, just treat the two countries as one country.

Immunisation, that doesn't seem to matter as we haven't and Australia have, and they are happy to have us arrive, MIQ free.

South Auckland is not a priority area as we would be allowing people in from a safe country. And they even are already happy to have us in with no MIQ, in fact that started weeks ago. So we are apparently safe, and Australia is apparently safer.

We are not a high risk of lockdown. Australia has had more, but they apparently have a better record than us, as often stated here.

NZ is already back to normal, so is Australia. UK , no thanks.

- Little of the above is my exact personal opinion, its just incessant "facts" stated here repeatedly. So Ive used them as basis for my reply to you.

My opinion is that its time to form an Australian bubble. Both sides are under as much control as can be expected. Both sides have managed outbreaks well, so any further outbreaks and there will be, can be managed as one combined nation. But we have the benefit of tourism each way, and family interaction.

The issue with vaccine's and the travel bubble is as follows.

Current Aussie is projecting to get everybody who wants vaccinated well before NZ is projecting the same. This means it is likely that Aussie will get to a vaccination level where they are willing to re-open to quarantine free (for vaccinated passengers) travel globally. Likely they would proceed with this without waiting for our blessing.

Leaves NZ (especially the politicians) with quite a tough decision:

End the travel bubble, hopefully the diplomats give us warning, and we can have a two week window for people to get back to NZ, without needing a MIQ slot. Politicians will face public wrath for our vaccination program being slow. The fact that beating Aussie (who have domestic vaccine manufacture ability) is not realistic and that we have opted not to use the less effective AZ jab here will only deflect some of the wrath.
Keep bubble alive and accept that we will let covid-19 into our community earlier than we are ready. Take steps like requiring a minimum of 14 days in aussie for people transiting from the rest of the world, pre departure testing & full vaccination for miq exemption. Again could be quite unpopular with New Zealanders especially if we need more lock-downs or if we have a bunch of people die.

tdgeek

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#2672531 12-Mar-2021 22:19

Scott3:

The issue with vaccine's and the travel bubble is as follows.

Current Aussie is projecting to get everybody who wants vaccinated well before NZ is projecting the same. This means it is likely that Aussie will get to a vaccination level where they are willing to re-open to quarantine free (for vaccinated passengers) travel globally. Likely they would proceed with this without waiting for our blessing.

Leaves NZ (especially the politicians) with quite a tough decision:

End the travel bubble, hopefully the diplomats give us warning, and we can have a two week window for people to get back to NZ, without needing a MIQ slot. Politicians will face public wrath for our vaccination program being slow. The fact that beating Aussie (who have domestic vaccine manufacture ability) is not realistic and that we have opted not to use the less effective AZ jab here will only deflect some of the wrath.
Keep bubble alive and accept that we will let covid-19 into our community earlier than we are ready. Take steps like requiring a minimum of 14 days in aussie for people transiting from the rest of the world, pre departure testing & full vaccination for miq exemption. Again could be quite unpopular with New Zealanders especially if we need more lock-downs or if we have a bunch of people die.

Appreciate the detail.

1. Is the bubble dependent on vaccination? Australia are taking Kiwis with no MIQ and no vaccine.

2. Why would the rest of the world entering Australia (and then here) need 14 days in Australia before they come here? If there was a 14 day bedding in period for the vaccine, surely they would have to have had the vaccine 14 days prior to entering Australia?

Not disagreeing, just asking

Scott3

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#2673518 12-Mar-2021 23:03

tdgeek:

Appreciate the detail.

Is the bubble dependent on vaccination? Australia are taking Kiwis with no MIQ and no vaccine.
Why would the rest of the world entering Australia (and then here) need 14 days in Australia before they come here? If there was a 14 day bedding in period for the vaccine, surely they would have to have had the vaccine 14 days prior to entering Australia?

Not disagreeing, just asking

No. We were talking about setting up a bubble well before vaccines were available. With minimal covid-19 in each country we could do a bubble without requiring vaccines (like the north island and south island at the moment, or as you say, how aust is treating arrivals from NZ).I suggested adding the requirement of being vaccinated for MIQ free Aussie to NZ travel, could be added when aussie opens up to global tourism (and hence will start to get a lot of cases arrive), to reduce the number of cases coming into NZ.
Precise detail on vaccine effeminacy at stopping transmission are not known, But from preliminary stuff I guess about 50% for sinovac, 70% for Oxford, 95% for Pfizer... So plenty of people who are fully vaccinated can carry the virus. The 14 days in aussie is to give time for any infection they picked up prior to entering aussie to show on the pre-departure test.

Really I think a bubble with Aussie is well overdue

DS248

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#2673522 12-Mar-2021 23:16

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

Won't Australia be far more progressed with their immunistaion? NZs economy is very venerable until we get the builk of our population immunized, which is going to be months away. I see South Auckland is a priority area. But I think Auckland in general should also be a priority, because it is were most MIQ cases are held. Otherwise we are at very high risk of another lockdown. Where as countries like the UK which started immunization earlier will be able to get back to normal far earlier than NZ, and Australia will also likely get back to normal faster than NZ, as they have CSL making vaccines

...

Immunisation, that doesn't seem to matter as we haven't and Australia have, and they are happy to have us arrive, MIQ free.

...

Apart from the issue of whether AU reaching 'herd immunity' well(?) before NZ will be an issue, let's put the vaccination rates into perspective ...

As at 10 Mar:

Total doses given in NZ = 18,000 = 3,521 per million population (NZ Herald Vaccine Tracker)
Total doses given in AU = 106,200 = 4,123 per million population (https://covidlive.com.au/vaccinations)

That is a whole 17% higher vaccination rate in Australia. Hardly 'far more progressed'.

Of course both countries are only just ramping up their vaccination programmes so it is early days.

It is not necessarily a given that they will rapidly move ahead of the NZ vaccination rate. They already appear to be well behind their original schedule, with suggestions that the programme will be more likely be pushed out to the end of the year; eg.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/11/end-of-december-more-realistic-target-for-all-australians-to-get-covid-vaccine-ama-says

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-11/covid-19-committee-health-australia-vaccine-rollout/13238062

Also as their programme relies in significant part on the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine, recent reports of blood clots possibly could have an impact, at least in terms of public acceptance. Already at least three European countries have suspended use of the OAZ vaccine while investigating the issue https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/11/europe/astrazeneca-vaccine-denmark-suspension-intl/index.html.

gzt

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#2673532 13-Mar-2021 00:51

Some American companies are paying employees $100 or so to vaccinate. I kinda like the idea.

nX% of people will do it without the incentive. Some may do it a bit faster with an incentive. A small number of people will make a marginal decision to do it based on the incentive.

I expect the improvement is marginal but it all helps in a critical situation like USA with unknowns like mutation on the horizon if it's not sorted. Financially a very sensible decision for large companies too.

mattwnz

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#2673576 13-Mar-2021 01:23

gzt: Some American companies are paying employees $100 or so to vaccinate. I kinda like the idea.

nX% of people will do it without the incentive. Some may do it a bit faster with an incentive. A small number of people will make a marginal decision to do it based on the incentive.

I expect the improvement is marginal but it all helps in a critical situation like USA with unknowns like mutation on the horizon if it's not sorted. Financially a very sensible decision for large companies too.

It does make a lot of sense to pay people to get it. If the NZ government did this, and the payment was a prezzi type card, that must be spent within a certain period of time, maybe even locally with businesses, this could be a minor form of helicopter payment to help local businesses affected by the lockdowns. Who is going to turn down a free $100 to get immunized. It will probably pay for itself.

floydbloke

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#2673607 13-Mar-2021 08:39

mattwnz:

gzt: Some American companies are paying employees $100 or so to vaccinate. I kinda like the idea.

nX% of people will do it without the incentive. Some may do it a bit faster with an incentive. A small number of people will make a marginal decision to do it based on the incentive.

I expect the improvement is marginal but it all helps in a critical situation like USA with unknowns like mutation on the horizon if it's not sorted. Financially a very sensible decision for large companies too.

It does make a lot of sense to pay people to get it. If the NZ government did this, and the payment was a prezzi type card, that must be spent within a certain period of time, maybe even locally with businesses, this could be a minor form of helicopter payment to help local businesses affected by the lockdowns. Who is going to turn down a free $100 to get immunized. It will probably pay for itself.

I don't get this.

I'm all for the vaccine, and if someone wants to give me some money to take it that would be an added bonus.

However, if I was concerned about its safety, or that it might cause side-effects or whatever other reasons people have for not wanting it, getting a $100 wouldn't suddenly change my mind.

Boss:"will you be getting the covid vaccine?"

Employee:"no, I don't believe it's safe"

Boss:"I'll give you a hundy if you get the shot"

Employee:"oh, ok then" *rolls up sleeve

After I was born, I didn't talk to my parents for two years.

tdgeek

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#2673610 13-Mar-2021 08:45

floydbloke:

I don't get this.

I'm all for the vaccine, and if someone wants to give me some money to take it that would be an added bonus.

However, if I was concerned about its safety, or that it might cause side-effects or whatever other reasons people have for not wanting it, getting a $100 wouldn't suddenly change my mind.

Agree, seems a waste of $400 million, especially when most are gagging for the vaccine.

hairy1

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#2673611 13-Mar-2021 08:47

Money is a great driver for a lot of people.

After reading peer reviewed medical reports of the safety of the pfizer vaccine it has very very few side effects. One report had 2 million vaccinated with 20 anaphylatic reactions of which 60% had previously had similar reactions to other medication.

I am far more concerned about long Covid than the vaccine.

My views (except when I am looking out their windows) are not those of my employer.

tdgeek

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#2673620 13-Mar-2021 08:52

Getting Covid which you can pass to your family and can have lifelong effects (I assume thats still the potential case) is a great driver. After all everyone has gone through and is going through, do we still need to give motivations??? It's free.

Ge0rge

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#2673627 13-Mar-2021 09:12

floydbloke:
I don't get this.

I'm all for the vaccine, and if someone wants to give me some money to take it that would be an added bonus.

However, if I was concerned about its safety, or that it might cause side-effects or whatever other reasons people have for not wanting it, getting a $100 wouldn't suddenly change my mind.

Boss:"will you be getting the covid vaccine?"

Employee:"no, I don't believe it's safe"

Boss:"I'll give you a hundy if you get the shot"

Employee:"oh, ok then" *rolls up sleeve

Boss: "Need you to climb down into that confined sewer just quickly and dig out the blockage"
Me: "yeah, I'm not too sure how safe that it is, I'll pass"
Boss: "We'll throw you an extra hundy, call it hazard pay"
Me: "Where's that shovel?"

Do not underestimate how effective even a small payment can be to motivate people.

kiwifidget

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#2673628 13-Mar-2021 09:17

@hairy1 , I was online with a lady in the UK whose sister has long covid and was in a bad way.

Since getting her vaccine her health has improved immeasurably.

I don't know what if any trials have been done in this area, but wouldn't it be amazing if it worked for all long-haulers.

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