2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2436415 11-Mar-2020 17:43

neb:
Geektastic: It’s a factor of a system where sick leave is defined in days rather than something you take when sick until the illness passes.
Yeah, but it's obvious why you need that, a certain percentage of people are going to take sickies all year long unless you set a hard limit. So you need some sort of limit between "have as many paid days off as you like" and "no sick leave, ever".

consider us lucky, I am told in the USA there is no requirement to provide leave. no annual leave, no sick leave. just work. no work no pay.

tdgeek

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#2436437 11-Mar-2020 18:14

frednz:

From the same article:

But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision.

Note the reference in the same article to the "entire world". I'm glad this doesn't include NZ, thanks for pointing that out!

Of course, there are lots of positive articles around which reassure us that things won't be too bad after all, such as this one, which is directly referring to NZ:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/03/coronavirus-doctor-estimates-half-of-new-zealand-s-population-could-become-infected.html

Dr Samantha Murton, the head of the Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners (RNZCGP) told Magic Talk's Ryan Bridge on Tuesday that estimates show half of all New Zealanders could contract the illness.

"At the moment, what we are sort of looking at is that at least 50 percent would probably be infected. What the measures we are putting in place are trying to do is reduce the extreme nature of that, so we can get a reduced number," Dr Murton said.

So there you go, only half of us will probably be infected, that's better than all of us now isn't it!

Ok, fair enough. Thats, as you say, scary. As to the Kiwi part, that's more alarming, and stupid. On here or elsewhere, Iv never seen anything remotely close to that. I scan the news, I skim it, but not seen this bizarre and inaccurate article form Newshub. That is alarming for sure. If puny and remote NZ had half infections, then the rest of us are in long term lockdown and the rest of the world already has it. That is ridiculous. "what we are sort of looking at" ???

You win, that is plainly alarmist, to the extreme.

tdgeek

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#2436438 11-Mar-2020 18:16

kingdragonfly:
GV27: Does DMT kill coronvirus?

Are you asking if DMT, dimethyltryptamine, the psychedelic drug used in South American shamanic rituals, kills a virus?

It's a ... different ... line of inquiry. Where can I get a research grant?

Plus you will need samples... :-) I'm free Friday lol

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#2436439 11-Mar-2020 18:17

neb:
Geektastic: It’s a factor of a system where sick leave is defined in days rather than something you take when sick until the illness passes.
Yeah, but it's obvious why you need that, a certain percentage of people are going to take sickies all year long unless you set a hard limit. So you need some sort of limit between "have as many paid days off as you like" and "no sick leave, ever".

Yes. The law is 5? I get 10. Ive had 1 maybe 2 in the last 3 years.

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#2436480 11-Mar-2020 18:19

Batman:

consider us lucky, I am told in the USA there is no requirement to provide leave. no annual leave, no sick leave. just work. no work no pay.

My ex American gf said she can get personal days. I.e. sick leave without being sick. No idea if it was paid or not. Nurse.

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#2436481 11-Mar-2020 18:21

Australia: Travel ban on visitors from Italy.

NZ: "Please self isolate if you wouldn't mind? Cheers"

I'm thinking I know which will be more effective.

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#2436482 11-Mar-2020 18:23

tdgeek:

You win, that is plainly alarmist, to the extreme.

I mean....is it? Seems like up to 20% of all people everywhere got Swine Flu in 2009. Something that taps out at 50% of all people (ranging from death to asymptomatic) doesn't seem that far fetched.

Hatch

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Hatch (affiliate link).

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#2436488 11-Mar-2020 18:49

GV27:

tdgeek:

You win, that is plainly alarmist, to the extreme.

I mean....is it? Seems like up to 20% of all people everywhere got Swine Flu in 2009. Something that taps out at 50% of all people (ranging from death to asymptomatic) doesn't seem that far fetched.

It could do, if left unchecked. probably easily in fact. China has 1.6B population. At the peak they had circa 90,000 cases. They self isolated. Italy has 60M, they are 10% cases of China, they isolated too late. South Korea and Germany seem to be super early and doing well. Yes it can blow out very easily, but we can also cut it off at the pass, to give Cowboys and Indians parlance.

NZ? Too slow, too late, but as we are remote and tiny, maybe we are lucky or maybe these low numbers (population and density) help us.

I see China as the base point. It started there, was heavily virulent and deadly (In Hubei) spread like wildfire as many got out of Dodge. Italy did the same, they fled the virus but probably also took it with them. is NZ concerned about this in non North Italy? Not yet . Dumb.

I feel the most of us realise that isolation works. It does. So on that, I dont see a massive global issue. Apart from the US, as they are stupid, or at least 1/300 million of them is

robocat

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#2436489 11-Mar-2020 18:53

tdgeek:
frednz:

From the same article:

But in 2–4 weeks, when the entire world is in lockdown, when the few precious days of social distancing you will have enabled will have saved lives, people won’t criticize you anymore: They will thank you for making the right decision.

Note the reference in the same article to the "entire world". I'm glad this doesn't include NZ, thanks for pointing that out!

Of course, there are lots of positive articles around which reassure us that things won't be too bad after all, such as this one, which is directly referring to NZ:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/03/coronavirus-doctor-estimates-half-of-new-zealand-s-population-could-become-infected.html

Dr Samantha Murton, the head of the Royal New Zealand College of General Practitioners (RNZCGP) told Magic Talk's Ryan Bridge on Tuesday that estimates show half of all New Zealanders could contract the illness.

"At the moment, what we are sort of looking at is that at least 50 percent would probably be infected. What the measures we are putting in place are trying to do is reduce the extreme nature of that, so we can get a reduced number," Dr Murton said.

So there you go, only half of us will probably be infected, that's better than all of us now isn't it!

Ok, fair enough. Thats, as you say, scary. As to the Kiwi part, that's more alarming, and stupid. On here or elsewhere, Iv never seen anything remotely close to that. I scan the news, I skim it, but not seen this bizarre and inaccurate article form Newshub. That is alarming for sure. If puny and remote NZ had half infections, then the rest of us are in long term lockdown and the rest of the world already has it. That is ridiculous. "what we are sort of looking at" ???

You win, that is plainly alarmist, to the extreme.

Alarmist? The first cases of the coronavirus in Italy were confirmed on 31 January 2020. 6 weeks later, 600+ deaths later, health system in crisis (even though the North is not poor) and the whole country is on lockdown.

That's the problem with exponential growth - everything seems fine and "suddenly" a few days pass and everything is custard. It's happened in multiple other countries: any rational person expects the same in NZ.

Wait a few weeks and many will regret being blasé.

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#2436490 11-Mar-2020 18:54

GV27:

Australia: Travel ban on visitors from Italy.

NZ: "Please self isolate if you wouldn't mind? Cheers"

I'm thinking I know which will be more effective.

Yep. Its not relevant that MANY scarpered from North Italy to rest of Italy.... They did that in China. Fled the virus, good plan. But many of you carried it FOB in your lungs. NZ MoH doesn't see that. Nor does WHO probably.

Ironically, right now, we can probably heavily relax travel bans from China. They are plummeting down the total cases daily tally. Still 14 day self isolate. Brownie points galore there :-) And validly so.

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#2436493 11-Mar-2020 19:01

robocat:Alarmist? The first cases of the coronavirus in Italy were confirmed on 31 January 2020. 6 weeks later, 600+ deaths later, health system in crisis (even though the North is not poor) and the whole country is on lockdown.

That's the problem with exponential growth - everything seems fine and "suddenly" a few days pass and everything is custard. It's happened in multiple other countries: any rational person expects the same in NZ.

Wait a few weeks and many will regret being blasé.

I agree, but not to the point of the whole world being locked down in 2 weeks, or NZ. That is alarmist. China proved a solution. Italy was late, they let the quiet exponential period pass, but now they are all locked down. Germany, Singapore, South Korea on top of it sooner.

You are right, BUT exponential is plenty of time to react, Italy failed there, those three countries I mentioned, learned. You can be more cautious, you have time, but you need to be ahead of uncontained exponential growth. NZ needs to take heed. If we "only" got 20 cases, spread from Kaitaia to Bluff, then its everywhere.

robocat

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#2436496 11-Mar-2020 19:04

tdgeek: I feel the most of us realise that isolation works

Isolation spreads the infections over time, it doesn't prevent infections, and it only works for individuals and not an entire country...

Question: imagine we all isolate ourselves for a month, shutdown all industry. That would definitely slow down new infections. What is the next step?

Remain in shutdown for longer?

Pray for a cure?

Go back to work until infection rates hit the roof again?

I feel that everyone thinks 2 weeks isolation for everyone and then we'll be fine! Nope.

Handle9

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#2436502 11-Mar-2020 19:14

tdgeek:

Batman:

consider us lucky, I am told in the USA there is no requirement to provide leave. no annual leave, no sick leave. just work. no work no pay.

My ex American gf said she can get personal days. I.e. sick leave without being sick. No idea if it was paid or not. Nurse.

The US has the concept of Paid Time Off in many jobs. Basically they lump all your leave (sick, vacation, personal etc) together and say take it as it suits. When you run out that's it.

tdgeek

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#2436505 11-Mar-2020 19:26

robocat:
tdgeek: I feel the most of us realise that isolation works

Isolation spreads the infections over time, it doesn't prevent infections, and it only works for individuals and not an entire country...

Question: imagine we all isolate ourselves for a month, shutdown all industry. That would definitely slow down new infections. What is the next step?

Remain in shutdown for longer?

Pray for a cure?

Go back to work until infection rates hit the roof again?

I feel that everyone thinks 2 weeks isolation for everyone and then we'll be fine! Nope.

Who said 14 day isolation solves everything?

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#2436507 11-Mar-2020 19:33

Our local [Wellington suburban] medical centre has sent out this very practical email to all patients:

The *** Medical Centre has taken a number of actions to protect patients and staff:

Signs on entry to the building about what to do if you think you have Covid-19. DON'T COME IN. Phone us and we will arrange to meet patients in the carpark.
We have ordered perspex screens to go on the reception desk.The receptionists do get coughed on, so we need to protect them.
We have ordered a transportable building to go in the car park. We hope to have this soon. This will be our assessment area for patients with potential Covid-19
The sanitizing of the waiting room has increased throughout the day.
We have an infectious side of the waiting room and have removed some chairs to remove close contact.
We have put more hand sanitizer around the clinic

But there are things you can do to help us!

Please sanitise your hands before and after you leave the medical centre.
If you are coughing, please cover your cough. Cough into your elbow, or if you feel you are infectious, or acutely unwell, please use a mask [provided].

Sideface

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