2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2676408 18-Mar-2021 10:49

Batman:
Reanalyse:

One real scary issue is where entire countries such as Tanzania get locked into "Covid19 does not exist because it has been prayed away", and refuses vaccines. This could mean a large number of Covid19 sufferers and virus mutations that could render vaccines less effective. But what can be done about this ?

He's dead.

Officially from heart issue but he'd apparently been flown overseas for treatment of severe covid Recently.

Got link now https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/17/africa/john-magufuli-tanzania-death-intl/index.html

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Fred99

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#2676417 18-Mar-2021 11:03

The longer we wait for agreement for terms for a "bubble" the better IMO. Convince me otherwise.

1101

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#2676431 18-Mar-2021 11:28

On a lighter note , Its good to see a conspiracy spoofer taking a stand & saying Covid is not a joke (and is real)

https://youtu.be/gle1L_9stvQ

Fred99

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#2676444 18-Mar-2021 11:55

FWIW, there's been a new suspected "variant" discovered in France. Only things that seem to be known so far is that 7/8 known cases tested negative by PCR using nasopharyngeal swab. PCR diagnosis confirmed by bronchoalveolar lavage, the variant seemed to infect the lower respiratory tract rather than the upper tract, so the "gold standard" swab/PCR wasn't much use. (bronchoalveolar lavage isn't ever going to be a practical mass-screening method).

So it's a small number of cases, total number of cases not known - so infection fatality rate not known, transmissibility not known and could (and IMO probably will I hope) turn out to be nothing new to worry about.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03-france-hard-to-detect-covid-variant-brittany.html

wellygary

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#2676504 18-Mar-2021 14:31

Fred99:

FWIW, there's been a new suspected "variant" discovered in France. Only things that seem to be known so far is that 7/8 known cases tested negative by PCR using nasopharyngeal swab. PCR diagnosis confirmed by bronchoalveolar lavage, the variant seemed to infect the lower respiratory tract rather than the upper tract, so the "gold standard" swab/PCR wasn't much use. (bronchoalveolar lavage isn't ever going to be a practical mass-screening method).

So it's a small number of cases, total number of cases not known - so infection fatality rate not known, transmissibility not known and could (and IMO probably will I hope) turn out to be nothing new to worry about.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-03-france-hard-to-detect-covid-variant-brittany.html

Although to be honest the biggest question that needs answering is whether it is preventable by the current vaccines..

mattwnz

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#2676507 18-Mar-2021 14:36

Fred99:

The longer we wait for agreement for terms for a "bubble" the better IMO. Convince me otherwise.

IMO It all depends on how fast we do our vaccine rollout. We have barely started, while some countries have over 50% of their population vaccinated. SO we are vulnerable and risk lockdowns until he have a good percentage vaccinated.

My suggestion previously about giving everyone $100 voucher to spend when they get vaccinated, isn't to get those that are against vaccination due to thinking it is unsafe. It is to get those who just can't be bothered, or are the type to put this sort of thing off. I know many who are like that.

freitasm

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#2676509 18-Mar-2021 14:40

Capital Gateway, Wellington:

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wellygary

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#2676516 18-Mar-2021 15:11

freitasm: Capital Gateway, Wellington:

The wording on the QR code says "Community Vaccination Centre", I'm guessing its for Border/MIQ Households/Families... ( at the moment)

Fred99

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#2676517 18-Mar-2021 15:16

freitasm: Capital Gateway, Wellington:

...that photo has it looking a bit like a pub with no beer.

alasta

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#2676531 18-Mar-2021 15:28

mattwnz:

IMO It all depends on how fast we do our vaccine rollout. We have barely started, while some countries have over 50% of their population vaccinated. SO we are vulnerable and risk lockdowns until he have a good percentage vaccinated.

My suggestion previously about giving everyone $100 voucher to spend when they get vaccinated, isn't to get those that are against vaccination due to thinking it is unsafe. It is to get those who just can't be bothered, or are the type to put this sort of thing off. I know many who are like that.

The problem is that the vaccine requires two doses, so you would have to incentivise people twice. I have a bad feeling that a lot of people will get the first dose but the motivation will have worn off three weeks later when they are supposed to get the second dose.

KrazyKid

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#2676544 18-Mar-2021 15:40

That's an easy fix. You get the voucher upon receiving the second dose..

chatterbox

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#2676554 18-Mar-2021 16:10

wellygary:

chatterbox:

There’s actually sort of 2 rollouts underway in Australia. State government with border workers and healthcare and second, Commonwealth government doing aged care first then general public. They want the credit for rollout. State governments have offered to help Commonwealth government. Seems difficult when states aren’t sure how many vaccines are being delivered to them or if they’re showing up. Makes planning difficult but then again the same goes for the commonwealth. Italy blocked the AZ vaccine to Australia. They’re also trying to divert some to Papua New Guinea. Challenging really.

This article points to a few interesting wrinkles in the OZ rollout of the AstraZeneca Vaccine , such as now having a 12 week gap for the 2nd injection,

But basically Australia is hanging out for the end of March when they are expecting large scale local production to come on stream producing upto a million doses a week...

Although I do like the way they have given the Australian finger to the EU after having a shipment of 250K from Italy blocked, they have simply gone back to the EU yesterday and said we now need 1 million doses, so we can administer them in PNG :)....

https://theconversation.com/australias-covid-vaccine-rollout-is-well-behind-schedule-but-dont-panic-157048

I expect wrinkles. Current wrinkle is people calling their GPs wanting the vaccine but they don't have enough doses or they haven't been delivered. There were issues with wasted doses with other countries also. Will be interesting to see how they ramp up. Apparently the Morrison government are famous for making announcements..... They did say they changed their predictions though once AZ changed to 12 week interval dosing. Basically October hoping for 1st dose delivered.

But from a people point of view I wish them all the best and hope they ramp up well. There are some challenges that exist in Australia that don't exist in NZ so will see how they tackle those issues.

As for the EU, they're not even listening to their own experts, the EMA. The individual country experts say they're just checking, just making sure it's safe, meanwhile providing fodder for antivaxxers or those vaccine hesitant. Meanwhile the UK has administered millions of AZ without need to suspend the vaccine.

For our own country I'd like to see as many people vaccinated in as short a time as possible, mainly for the cities that have MIQ as they're the higher risk, from an already low risk country.

DS248

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#2676617 18-Mar-2021 17:27

tdgeek: This isnt bad, and up to date

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccination-doses-per-capita

Not up to date for NZ data. That site and the Financial Times Covid-19 vaccine tracker show NZ data as at 10 Mar.

NZ Herald Vaccine Tracker website has more up to date NZ data (updated to 17 Mar data yesterday shortly after the figures were announced by Hipkins).

chatterbox

155 posts

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#2676618 18-Mar-2021 17:29

Fred99:

The longer we wait for agreement for terms for a "bubble" the better IMO. Convince me otherwise.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300255592/transtasman-travel-bubble-why-its-the-right-time-to-start

From the article, since the original 40 exports to NZ in the first few months there have only been 2 exports that time from Victoria and 1 from NSW. Even Sydney with a high tolerance shut to Victoria then.

This means Western Australia - 1 border case since the 1st wave, Northern Territory - never had a locally acquired case, South Australia - the November Parrafield cluster which peaked to 33 and back to 0 in 3 and a bit weeks with a 3 day lockdown, Tasmania - not sure they've ever taken a repatriation flight but had almost zero cases (couple of expected Melbourne positives in hotel quarantine during that outbreak), ACT - despite being surrounded by New South Wales had a couple of law abiding diplomats positive but no community transmission in forever, Queensland - their first border failure this year and a more recent 2nd border failure leading to a single doctor being positive (are we including the returned traveller that infected another returned traveller in hotel quarantine?) could have been open to New Zealand since last year without exporting cases to each other.

If facts don't sway people nothing will. Basically the border will open and people will whinge and then after a month go "oh, nothing happened, hooray Labour" without looking at recent facts because it became political for some people. Or at least irrationally driven.

I see people post irrational fears about opening to Australia. One was concerned Australians wouldn't download the tracer app and scan in when Australia has 8 different tracer apps for their states & territories. Each of the states and territories have their own apps among others and businesses are more likely to make you scan in than in NZ which relies on displaying the QR code at the door and literally praying people scanned in. I prefer a system that asks you to show your green tick or points at the QR code or sign in register. Neither system is perfect but NZ appears to have a false sense of security above that which exists in Australia.

Regardless the public health in both countries seems adequate to squash any tiny clusters.

I'm pro - Australian bubble. I'm not necessarily pro opening to the rest of the world just yet! The excuses from Labour government don't seem public health related? If you get caught in a snap lock down it's 3-5 days. Whoopee. Welcome to Covid Normal. I've never seen a social media post blaming a government because they were caught in a snap lockdown. 3 days is nothing. 5 days is a PITA. 7 days is ......

I find the NZ public fear driven and no longer science driven when it comes to bubbles.

Fred99

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#2676619 18-Mar-2021 17:37

The excuses from Labour government don't seem public health related?

I think they are, you've increased the "local" population in NZ from 6 to about 30 million, and by removing the requirement for quarantine opened up the border MIQ then quarantine facilities to far more visitors/returnees from countries where infection rates are high. Both are increased risks to NZ.

Manageable? It seems that consensus is that it is - if there's no CT before April.

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