Another gem from the country that keeps on giving -

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/02/us/miami-centner-academy-coronavirus-vaccine.html

Fred99:

 

mattwnz:

 

I saw there was an interview with Fauci about concerns with Australia and the vaccine rollout , which would also apply to NZ. We should be making the rollout the top priority.  https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/apr/14/australia-should-make-covid-vaccine-rollout-top-priority-anthony-fauci-says  

 

 

I didn't click though to the interview on youtube, but the article indicates that Fauci's concerns are about vaccine hesitancy and antivaxxers, not slow rollout due to low availability of vaccine, or other reasons why things are going too slowly.

 

The thing that worries me is that Covid is largely out of sight and mind in NZ.  For a lot of people here life is back normal, and we do not have the sense of desperation that other counties have to get out of long lock down periods.  We will have the anti-vaxxers and people with hesitancy - each country does, but we will also have the people who won’t prioritize getting the vaccine if it interrupts everyday life for them.  For example, if joe blogs is still working his job as normal, has never travelled abroad and has no intention of travelling, he will probably see going to get the vaccine as an inconvenience. 

tdgeek:

 

mattwnz:

 

Some of the leaks and cases in Oz are a bit of a concern, especially as some people don't appear to be following the rules. This is what caused NZ to go into it's first lockdown last year costing billions, as some people returned didn't do what they were required to to and self isolate at home. In terms of cost to NZs economy if an Auckland  lockdown resulted, I don't think the trans-tasman bubble makes financial sense.  I would be far more comfortable if we weren't so far behind many countries with our vaccination program, so there is some immunity in the community. 

 

 

???

 

Some of their leaks? Its been almost daily in Australia. I thought from reading here that NZ was a shocker. Did NZ first lockdown cost billions? Is that ok? You would prefer no lockdown?

 

...

 

These assessments seem to be based more on emotion than on facts. 

A recent joint Otago-Melbourne University evaluation of the two countries MIQ facilities found the risk of quarantine failures to be 7.8 per 100,000 travellers in New Zealand compared to 5.5 in Australia. 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/covid-19/441594/nz-s-miq-system-three-times-more-likely-to-be-breached-than-australia-s-report

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.17.21251946v3

Yes, there have been missteps, and likely there may be more, but by and large the bubble seems to be working to the benefit of families on both sides of the Tasman.  

==

Edited: to provide a more relevant statistic (failures per 100,000 travellers)

DS248:

 

These assessments seem to be based more on emotion than on facts.  A recent joint Otago-Melbourne University evaluation of the two countries MIQ facilities found the risk of quarantine failures to be three-fold higher in New Zealand compared with Australia. 

 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/covid-19/441594/nz-s-miq-system-three-times-more-likely-to-be-breached-than-australia-s-report

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.17.21251946v3

 

Yes, there have been missteps, and likely there may be more, but by and large the bubble seems to be working to the benefit of families on both sides of the Tasman.  

 

 

 

Based more on very soon after this travel bubble, literally almost every day there is a new issue. I have no issue with NZ's response, with  12 or 15 leaks or whatever it is over well over 100,000 returnee's. If that is three times more than Australia then we are indeed poor, as is mentioned often here. Whats the stats since April 19th, travel bubble day?

Multiple mis-steps over there, that's ok ? When its' here the world ends

tdgeek:

 

DS248:

 

These assessments seem to be based more on emotion than on facts.  A recent joint Otago-Melbourne University evaluation of the two countries MIQ facilities found the risk of quarantine failures to be three-fold higher in New Zealand compared with Australia. 

 

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/covid-19/441594/nz-s-miq-system-three-times-more-likely-to-be-breached-than-australia-s-report

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.17.21251946v3

 

Yes, there have been missteps, and likely there may be more, but by and large the bubble seems to be working to the benefit of families on both sides of the Tasman.  

 

 

 

 

Based more on very soon after this travel bubble, literally almost every day there is a new issue. I have no issue with NZ's response, with  12 or 15 leaks or whatever it is over well over 100,000 returnee's. If that is three times more than Australia then we are indeed poor, as is mentioned often here. Whats the stats since April 19th, travel bubble day?

 

Multiple mis-steps over there, that's ok ? When its' here the world ends

 

"literally almost every day there".  Fact or emotion?  Perhaps you can list them to confirm that the statement is factually based?  Now 14 days since the start of the TT bubble, so I imagine "literally almost every day" must mean 10 - 12 independent breaches in AU?

That said, taking one 14-day sample is a rather debatable basis for assessing the failure risk.

Here's the data re above paper.  Some of the news articles seem to be misrepresenting the results:

DS248:

 

 

 

"literally almost every day there".  Fact or emotion?  Perhaps you can list them to confirm that the statement is factually based?  Now 14 days since the start of the TT bubble, so I imagine "literally almost every day" must mean 10 - 12 independent breaches in AU?

 

That said, taking one 14-day sample is a rather debatable basis for assessing the failure risk.

 

 

 

When it started it was literally each day almost. Perth, Brisbane, Melbourne. Perth disable twice now. I guess when you are used to hearing all the incessant complaints here, over our leaks, its quite noticeable when a string of failures in Australia is no issue.

Personally I have no real issue, as I know human error will always happen, but the change in attitude for a NZ leak is quite stark.

tdgeek:

 

...

 

NZ is behind the rest, why is that? We are low priority. We also booked 10 million doses, but they haven't been delivered, why is that?

 

AFAIK vaccinations don't provide immunity. They mean that you and I wont get sick, but we can transmit, as we can still get infected. Transmission is 1/3 to 1/2 less as we wont be coughing, but at the end of the day, vaccination is not a cure, its a "dont get sick" solution and that's all it is.

 

....

 

 

 

Regarding vaccination's. In short:

• NZ ordered mid last year vaccines from 4 different groups: Pfizer, AZ, J&J & Novovax. 750k, 4.25k, 5m, 5m courses respectively.
• Turned out that the Pfizer is the best from that list, due high effectiveness (and having completed trials some time ago so there is lots of real world data. NZ made the call early this year to exclusively use Pfizer, and placed a 2nd order for 4.25k more pfizer courses.
• First Pfizer doses (2 dose course) started being delivered some time in feb I think. roughly 60k doses a week, so will take roughly 6 months for that entire first order to be filled.
• Second Pfizer order has not yet started to ship. I don't know the start date for the 2nd order, but think June or July. Given our target is 90% of the population by the end of the year (would require approvals for kids to come through), the order should be filled by the end of the year. Once this order starts to ship, we should be getting cira 340k doses a week (on top of the approx 60k doses a week from our first order, until all 1.5m doses are supplied).

Current situation is that we have used about 230k doses and have about 300k in storage. Government strategy was to start slow and build a stockpile so we could run a smooth ramp up in vaccination rates timed so that our stockpile was near exhausted just prior to our first big shipment landing.

Personally I feel there should have been more of a rush for border workers and medical front liners, but most of those groups have at least their first dose done, so the urgency has now gone out of that.

Note

• We gave up shipments of other brands of vaccines we were entitled to incl AZ vaccines in order to wait for our pfizer order to be filled. This is a luxury of not having lots of community cases, meaning we can afford to wait for the best.
• Despite the promises of a politician, NZ was never going to be first in line for the vaccine. Unlike many locations we aren't desperate, and we couldn't justify emergency use approvals. Nor did we have enough covid-19 to be a science experiment like Israel...  Nor do we domestic manufacture ability like Aussie.

The Pfizer vaccine is a bit better than you portray. A real world study out of Israel suggests it is 94% effective at preventing asymptotic infections and 97% effective at preventing symptomatic infections.

Not perfect, but it will cut down transmission a lot... This new mRNA vaccine tech seems to be awesome.

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/pfizer-covid-vaccine-cuts-transmission-coronavirus-new-real-world-study-n1260542

As long as we have reasonable uptake and no vaccine resistant variants emerge, we can realistically get herd immunity via vaccination in NZ, meaning covid-19 will no longer spread out of control if it gets into NZ, meaning we no longer need border isolation etc.

Thanks very much Scott for the detail, appreciated.

I'll try to locate the 1/3 to 1/2 article, those are transmission numbers, not infection numbers. I.E. 94% may not get sick, but that 94% can transmit, at rates of between 1/3 and 1/2. IIRC that was mainly due to no sneezing/coughing. The article also talked about covid being everywhere globally, based on everyone can still get infected (but not get sick) so it can wander around society potentially forever. As distinct from vaccinations causing it to run out of hosts and it then dies out

tdgeek:

 

Thanks very much Scott for the detail, appreciated.

 

I'll try to locate the 1/3 to 1/2 article, those are transmission numbers, not infection numbers. I.E. 94% may not get sick, but that 94% can transmit, at rates of between 1/3 and 1/2. IIRC that was mainly due to no sneezing/coughing. The article also talked about covid being everywhere globally, based on everyone can still get infected (but not get sick) so it can wander around society potentially forever. As distinct from vaccinations causing it to run out of hosts and it then dies out

 

If enough people get vaccinated, and that 1/2 to 1/3 transmission rate is right, then the R value will fall below 1, and the virus *should* disappear. 

Of course, this depends on enough vaccines being put into arms.

tdgeek:

 

Thanks very much Scott for the detail, appreciated.

 

I'll try to locate the 1/3 to 1/2 article, those are transmission numbers, not infection numbers. I.E. 94% may not get sick, but that 94% can transmit, at rates of between 1/3 and 1/2. IIRC that was mainly due to no sneezing/coughing. The article also talked about covid being everywhere globally, based on everyone can still get infected (but not get sick) so it can wander around society potentially forever. As distinct from vaccinations causing it to run out of hosts and it then dies out

 

My understanding is no infection (not even asymptotic infection) means no transmission.

Scott3:

 

My understanding is no infection (not even asymptotic infection) means no transmission.

 

I thought that too, so herd immunity would theoretically eliminate the virus. I'll look for that article now

Edit: Later, dont want to see some news till I watch a sports event!

Cook Island bubble May 17

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/300291166/live-pm-jacinda-ardern-has-announced-cook-islands-travel-bubble-to-begin-from-may-17

Press release:

 

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown have today announced that, pending final confirmation by New Zealand’s Director-General of Health and the Cook Islands Secretary of Health, two-way quarantine-free travel will commence between the two countries on 17 May (NZT).

 

“Two way quarantine-free travel is a significant step in both countries’ COVID-19 recovery, and a direct result of both New Zealand and the Cook Islands’ successful response to the pandemic,” Jacinda Ardern said.

 

“It will mean families can reconnect, commercial arrangements can resume and Kiwis can take a much-welcomed winter break and support the Cook Islands’ tourism sector and recovery.

 

“That we can take this step in our recovery so soon after opening the trans-Tasman bubble highlights the benefits of our COVID-19 management, and the opportunities it is now providing New Zealand and our neighbours.

 

“This is a world-leading arrangement and it’s important to remember many other countries still have bans in place on travel for holiday purposes.”

 

Jacinda Ardern said a huge amount of work had gone into ensuring the two-way bubble was safe and that the Cook Islands was set up and ready for it.

 

“The health and safety of the people of the Cook Islands has at all times been paramount.

 

“Vaccination, while not an answer on its own, will provide an added layer of protection once rolled out, and we continue to advance these plans alongside the Cook Islands,” said Jacinda Ardern.

 

“The confirmation of 17 May for the commencement of two-way quarantine-free travel between the Cook Islands and New Zealand is the result of our uncompromising commitment to ensuring all necessary health and border measures are instituted to the highest standards of protection against COVID-19 prior to commencement,” Mark Brown said.

 

“Since my visit to New Zealand at the end of March, and various engagements with Prime Minister Ardern and members of her Cabinet, we have jointly elevated effort towards bolstering readiness and response capabilities against COVID-19 in preparation for the safe resumption of two-way quarantine-free travel between our countries.

 

“The learnings from the trans-Tasman arrangement have informed further bolstering of response capabilities by both Governments in preparation for commencement of the Cook Islands - New Zealand quarantine-free travel arrangement.

 

“In close partnership with New Zealand, we are continuing to work through final details for the deployment of vaccines to the Cook Islands and expect to provide further details on the vaccine roll-out within the next week few weeks.

 

“I acknowledge with deepest gratitude our people’s continued trust in our leadership and whole of society endeavour to keep our people safe from the virus, and the incredible work of a steadfast team of committed officials working in close partnership with our community and industry and their New Zealand counterparts.

 

“Today we start our journey of recovery. Today we get back to business. Today with our joint confirmation of the 17 May, we give our people, and particularly our industry, the certainty necessary to institute remaining preparatory steps to once more welcome visitors to our shores.”

 

Commencement of the bubble is subject to a final set of criteria being met, including airline and airport preparedness, all necessary protocols and frameworks being in place, and final sign off from the New Zealand Director-General of Health and the Cook Islands Secretary of Te Marae Ora – Ministry of Health.

 

Further information

 

Full information about quarantine-free travel, including eligibility, what travellers should expect, and updates to requirements, are on:

 

• The New Zealand Government COVID-19 website: www.covid19.govt.nz
• The Cook Islands Government COVID-19 website: www.covid19.gov.ck
• Quarantine-free travel applies to all travellers in New Zealand and the Cook Islands who meet the eligibility requirements to travel.
• Travellers will have to have been in either the Cook Islands or New Zealand for at least 14 days before travel. This means anyone wanting to travel between Australia and the Cook Islands would need to spend at least 14 days in New Zealand in the middle.
• No one should travel if they are unwell, if they are waiting on a COVID-19 test, or if they have been in contact with anyone suspected to have COVID-19.
• There will be no requirement for a pre-departure COVID-19 test, but travellers will have to complete a travel declaration, provide a health declaration and there will be random health checks at airports.
• Normal immigration rules for entry into each country will continue to apply. Travellers will need to check what that means for their individual situation.
• From 17 May travellers in both directions will not have to enter managed quarantine facilities.
• Flights will be operating as ‘green’, with measures in place through the traveller journey to keep travellers separate from ‘red’ flights in and out of New Zealand where passengers need to enter MIQ.

 

tdgeek:

 

Scott3:

 

My understanding is no infection (not even asymptotic infection) means no transmission.

 

 

I thought that too, so herd immunity would theoretically eliminate the virus. I'll look for that article now

 

Edit: Later, dont want to see some news till I watch a sports event!

 

Nope.  We'll never get herd immunity globally, so those who are vulnerable because the vaccine won't protect them will continue to be at risk, even if we could eliminate it locally.  Best chance is to get maximum community immunity by high uptake of vaccine, so it won't rage through when inevitably cases do arrive in the country.

Even if we reach the theoretical herd immunity level based on R0, it'll be like measles - with pockets of lower immunity.  Some of those will be groups of anti-vaxxers, some will be the elderly or unwell most at risk already.  As for groups of anti-vaxxers, I'd expect them not to front up for testing if they do get C-19, nor take precautions to not transmit it to others.

As for emerging escape variants, it's too early to know.  Needing booster shots seems likely, when there's countries with hundreds of millions of active cases and some impossible timeline to vaccinate everybody, it might be inevitable.