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  #2437570 13-Mar-2020 15:23
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tdgeek:

 

I think she got confused. Stuff reported "Banning more flights into NZ is complicated by the fact medicines are transported on passenger planes, PM says."

 

You can't ban more flights unless we aready banned flights. I think she meant travel bans like from China and Iran. People not planes?

 

 

 

 

I just watched the actual press conference. I think our prime ministers words were not directly quoted, instead poorly paraphrased.

My take of the press conference was that it has been decided that there will be more travel restrictions, but because of the magnitude of the potential impact we need to take a couple of days to get the detail right before announcing.

When put that way, it sound quite reasonable (although I would prefer it be done in a hurry).


 

Also mentioned was the "flattening the curve" that was posted on here many times, stating that we do not expect to keep cases out, but the goal is slow down the rate of cases to keep it under our hospital's capacity.


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  #2437571 13-Mar-2020 15:29
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DS248:

 

A concern?  Apparently recovered patients later returning multiple positive tests.  Small numbers but well studied.  And being medical professions likely receive better treatment than average?

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762452

 

 

 

 

My understanding is that the problem is that if you get COVID 19 , apparently you don't build up any immunity to it after you have recovered. So you can then get it again. Is there any point in having Covid 19 parties, like people often do with chickenpox. 

 

I came across this 60 minutes from Oz, that was made a few weeks ago. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7nZ4mw4mXw

 

They are interviewing the person that headed the SARS outbreak. He is worried about this, and a lot of the stuff he says makes a lot of sense. The iceberg theory is also a good one. Also if he death rates are a lo higher than they should be vs the confirmed cases, it is likely that there are a significant number of other people who have it who haven't been diagnosed. They also look into wet markets, and how this  type of virus was just a ticking time bomb. Apparently there are still wet markets in other asian countries  being run today. I can't believe they haven't all been banned and stomped out. IMO we should put travel bans and refuse to trade with any countries that run these wet markets. 

 

You know it is very bad when they close Disneyland !


 
 
 
 


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  #2437574 13-Mar-2020 15:33
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Scott3:

 

 

 

I just watched the actual press conference. I think our prime ministers words were not directly quoted, instead poorly paraphrased.

My take of the press conference was that it has been decided that there will be more travel restrictions, but because of the magnitude of the potential impact we need to take a couple of days to get the detail right before announcing.

When put that way, it sound quite reasonable (although I would prefer it be done in a hurry).


 

Also mentioned was the "flattening the curve" that was posted on here many times, stating that we do not expect to keep cases out, but the goal is slow down the rate of cases to keep it under our hospital's capacity.

 

 

Yes, agree, the magntitude is a US ban, which would be 14 day must self isolate. Trump will take that as an insult to good ol America. Europe ban must happen, again they can self isolate here

 

Not sure why she says our bans are so stringent, as if we are tough. other countries ban more than us


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  #2437575 13-Mar-2020 15:35
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Scott3:

 

 

 

Also mentioned was the "flattening the curve" that was posted on here many times, stating that we do not expect to keep cases out, but the goal is slow down the rate of cases to keep it under our hospital's capacity.

 

 

 

 

That is very risky IMO, because you only need a spike in cases to overwhelm the health system, like what has occured in Italy, and they will need to make the decision on who to treat, and not to treat.

 

I thought the intention was to keep it out. IMO it is going to cause less economic damage not having it in NZ, vs having it here, when at some stage there is likely to have been a travel ban anyway, and people wrund the resty of the world wont be travling much anyway. It seems everyone is now cancelling their overseas trips this year.


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  #2437579 13-Mar-2020 15:47
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mattwnz:

 

My understanding is that the problem is that if you get COVID 19 , apparently you don't build up any immunity to it after you have recovered. So you can then get it again. Is there any point in having Covid 19 parties, like people often do with chickenpox. 

 

 

I think it's too early to say that's true - and hope it isn't.

 

You must develop some immunity - otherwise you'd never recover - it's more a question of how long that lasts. 

 

 

 

 


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  #2437580 13-Mar-2020 15:51
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Justin Trudeau's wife has been tested and confirmed positive.  I understand she self-isolated when she began to feel unwell. 


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  #2437582 13-Mar-2020 15:55
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Fred99:

 

mattwnz:

 

My understanding is that the problem is that if you get COVID 19 , apparently you don't build up any immunity to it after you have recovered. So you can then get it again. Is there any point in having Covid 19 parties, like people often do with chickenpox. 

 

 

I think it's too early to say that's true - and hope it isn't.

 

You must develop some immunity - otherwise you'd never recover - it's more a question of how long that lasts. 

 

 

 

 

I think that is probably what they meant. How long it lasts after you recover. I also wonder if it is due to it mutating and apparently there being at least two strains of it. It seems we are in a bit of a waiting game until a vaccine is produced.


 
 
 
 


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  #2437584 13-Mar-2020 16:09
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Interesting read on how Singapore was ready for this.





 

 

These links are referral codes

 

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  #2437587 13-Mar-2020 16:19
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Batman: Once everybody gets herd immunity it will then become another flu.

Maybe....

 

 

 

Remember that that means another new illness, on top of the annual flu strains. The annual flu only kills 0.1%, whereas this kills 20-30 times more than that. eg. the Flu maybe kill 1 person per 1000 people, but this will kill 20-30 people based on current numbers. This is far more serious, which is why the WHO considers this an emergency situation, and they say countries must do everything they can to prevent this spreading. The problem is that it took them so long to eventually classify it as a pandemic, and it seems that only after that occurred did some countries take far more action. eg The US, which has effectively caused a stock market crash in the US as it fell more than 10% in a day.


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  #2437593 13-Mar-2020 16:27
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The economic damage has already been done - we just won't see this for a while yet. It's going to be brutal, very, very brutal. Preventing more people from coming here is now just an obvious decision.

 

 


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  #2437596 13-Mar-2020 16:45
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Professional footballers are falling like dominos, surely the Premier League will be postponed/suspended tomorrow (emergency meeting planned). The Arsenal coach has it, the entire first team is in self isolation. A Chelsea player has it and they are in isolation too. Juventus has 120 staff and players in isolation and Real Madrid are in isolation after a player from their pro basketball team tested positive (they share facilities).

 

Crazy!

 

My Liverpool supporting mates think its some sick joke, they are 2 wins from securing their first title in 30 years! 

 

I've never seen anything like this.


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Ultimate Geek


  #2437600 13-Mar-2020 16:50
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The rest of the world are making decisions based on their circumstances. None of those decisions seem to be palatable to each other eg the US decision to stop EU flights and the reaction to that which seemed tit for tat politically rather than about containment and control.

Perhaps it's time NZ bit the bullet and as a country just locked down.

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  #2437602 13-Mar-2020 16:54
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cshwone: The rest of the world are making decisions based on their circumstances. None of those decisions seem to be palatable to each other eg the US decision to stop EU flights and the reaction to that which seemed tit for tat politically rather than about containment and control.

Perhaps it's time NZ bit the bullet and as a country just locked down.

 

 

 

I don't think there is any  point in delaying it further, especially as we head into winter and flu season


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  #2437605 13-Mar-2020 17:06
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mattwnz:

 

Remember that that means another new illness, on top of the annual flu strains. The annual flu only kills 0.1%, whereas this kills 20-30 times more than that. eg. the Flu maybe kill 1 person per 1000 people, but this will kill 20-30 people based on current numbers.

 

 

I think the Death rate is highly variable depending on the ability of the local medical system's ability to cope.

 

The Death rate goes through the roof once it overwhelms the local medical systems, hence the big push to "flatten the curve"

 

 

 

If you look at Hubei  and Italy, where the outbreaks totally swamped the local medical systems you have higher death rates

 

Hubei (67K cases 3K deaths =~4%) Italy (12K cases 800 deaths =~7%)

 

but China excl Hubei (13K cases 120 deaths = ~1%) ( S Korea 7.8K cases 66 deaths ~1%)   + then there are number of countries with ~200 cases and no deaths,

 

 

 

 


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Ultimate Geek

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  #2437607 13-Mar-2020 17:08
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mattwnz:

 

I don't think there is any  point in delaying it further, especially as we head into winter and flu season

 

 

 

 

At this point, it is pretty clear that we will need to start taking drastic action domestically (close schools, cancel gatherings, stop public transport etc) to "flatten the curve" when the expected community outbreak happens.

Seems the economic impact of the above will be similar or greater to closing the boarders. - Sounds like most business travel, and international sports events are getting canceled anyway.

 

 

 

Has India had any diplomatic kickback against it's decision to suspend most travel visa's?


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