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  #2437608 13-Mar-2020 17:08
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+ all the people who die of heart attacks, strokes etc etc as doctors overwhelmed

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Ultimate Geek

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  #2437610 13-Mar-2020 17:11
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Let's take a minute to think about the country with the world's highest rate of infection - 1 in 1,000.

Yes, the Vatican. Also the place that has 2.27 popes per square kilometer.

Vatican statistics are fun.


 
 
 
 


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  #2437611 13-Mar-2020 17:12
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sbiddle:

 

The economic damage has already been done - we just won't see this for a while yet. It's going to be brutal, very, very brutal. Preventing more people from coming here is now just an obvious decision.

 

 

 

 

Someone from Tourism NZ was interviewed on National Radio yesterday, provisional (but stated as far from a "worst case") scenario is that forward tourist number projections have halved.  That was stated as a $7 billion hit to the economy by the end of the year (an $18 billion industry).  I guess that's at least >50,000 jobs will go out of >200,000 working in the sector. And that's just one sector of the economy about to be decimated. 

 

 


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Ultimate Geek


  #2437626 13-Mar-2020 17:16
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Scott3:

mattwnz:


I don't think there is any  point in delaying it further, especially as we head into winter and flu season



 


At this point, it is pretty clear that we will need to start taking drastic action domestically (close schools, cancel gatherings, stop public transport etc) to "flatten the curve" when the expected community outbreak happens.

Seems the economic impact of the above will be similar or greater to closing the boarders. - Sounds like most business travel, and international sports events are getting canceled anyway.


 


Has India had any diplomatic kickback against it's decision to suspend most travel visa's?



But if we really close the border rather than playing at it we can minimize domestic disruption thus keeping a domestic economy going and avoiding daily life disruptions.

As was said by mr Biddle the international financial impact is already here. Let's strengthen our own internal interests.

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  #2437627 13-Mar-2020 17:21
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Scott3:

 

 

 

 

 

At this point, it is pretty clear that we will need to start taking drastic action domestically (close schools, cancel gatherings, stop public transport etc) to "flatten the curve" when the expected community outbreak happens.

Seems the economic impact of the above will be similar or greater to closing the boarders. - Sounds like most business travel, and international sports events are getting canceled anyway.

 

 

 

 

The problem by doing things slowly, is that it also causes a lot of uncertainty, which is why the financial markets have all crashed, and they fall further when new restrictions get announced. Basically what we need to do is buy time until the vaccine is produced. Never thought I would ever see this situation occur, especially with all the advances in medicine and technology. 

 

The NZ government still say that community outbreaks are a 'low' risk of occurring, so in terms of what we are doing inside NZ, it maybe working. But that is irrelevant if we are potentially letting infected people into the country undetected, as it is impossible to know if someone is infected or not as they enter through the gates.


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  #2437628 13-Mar-2020 17:26
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The closing of our border is a decision that should not be taken lightly. I am sure the PM is receiving a lot of briefings from various sector experts. The PM will have at hand far more information at hand than that which is available here. Closing the border may well be the wrong option and may hinder our ability to combat the virus and maintain the treatment of other conditions.





Mike

 

Consultant

 


The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

He waka eke noa


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  #2437629 13-Mar-2020 17:36
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👍 Today German government will release a short-time compensation package when a shut-down is no longer an option. Touching the fiscal accounts becomes priority for this.

 

- It's highly recommended to reduce social contacts to the absolute necessary - really!

 

- More and more soccer games (and other events) here are played as "ghost games" with no local audience allowed.

 

- Prevent usage of public transportation whenever possible.

 

- School holidays will be brought forward or extended.

 

 

 

Another day begins in "Corona City" ... 😉 - oh, and the infection rate is still in line with the exponential function. Just to mention.





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  #2437631 13-Mar-2020 17:38
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It is very easy to say close the border now, we have to isolate. When the impact of that is double digit unemployment and significant shortages it's not so easy.

There will be significant infections and deaths in New Zealand, it's inevitable. Managing that as effectively as possible while minimising other impacts is responsible and sensible.

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  #2437632 13-Mar-2020 17:39
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It should be noted that even if we "close the border", in line with international immigration norms, we will need to accept our own citizens, meaning that (assuming some airlines keep flying) we will not have eliminated the risk anyway.

 

 

 

Kinda glad it's not my call. Basically whatever decision is made will be ripped to shreds in the media.

 

 

 

[edit] fixed spelling


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  #2437634 13-Mar-2020 17:40
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Border folks.

 

 





 

 

These links are referral codes

 

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Ultimate Geek


  #2437636 13-Mar-2020 17:49
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MikeB4:

The closing of our border is a decision that should not be taken lightly. I am sure the PM is receiving a lot of briefings from various sector experts. The PM will have at hand far more information at hand than that which is available here. Closing the border may well be the wrong option and may hinder our ability to combat the virus and maintain the treatment of other conditions.



I totally agree about your objective statement but not about your subjective interpretation.

As I said previously we may have to bite the bullet. I understand that Italy is triaging already based on age and pre existing conditions but that's when the virus gets a grip.

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Ultimate Geek


  #2437639 13-Mar-2020 17:53
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Handle9: It is very easy to say close the border now, we have to isolate. When the impact of that is double digit unemployment and significant shortages it's not so easy.

There will be significant infections and deaths in New Zealand, it's inevitable. Managing that as effectively as possible while minimising other impacts is responsible and sensible.


That depends on your risk profile and acceptance of that risk.

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  #2437640 13-Mar-2020 17:53
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cshwone: I understand that Italy is triaging already based on age and pre existing conditions but that's when the virus gets a grip.

 

Facing the facts: that's part of ANY medical crisis management plan when reaching a certain level runnin' out of capacity ... at any place in the world.





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  #2437642 13-Mar-2020 18:05
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cshwone: Let's strengthen our own internal interests.

 

That's understandable ... but ... when we shut down our economy here, who is gonna produce your pharmaceuticals?





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  #2437643 13-Mar-2020 18:05
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MikeB4:

 

The closing of our border is a decision that should not be taken lightly. I am sure the PM is receiving a lot of briefings from various sector experts. The PM will have at hand far more information at hand than that which is available here. Closing the border may well be the wrong option and may hinder our ability to combat the virus and maintain the treatment of other conditions.

 

 

 

 

I wonder if it is because a lot of other stuff is also transported on passenger planes, such as medications. So if those planes aren't flying, then it won't get delivered. I would hope there are contingencies in place or maybe that is what they are working on. 

 

I see Australia have now banned gatherings of more than 500 people. Doesn't includes schools or public transport. I would have thought public transport would be a bit of a problem. I remember when I used to catch the train, I used to always get colds, as they were often overloaded.  


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