2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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1694 posts

Uber Geek

#2739301 5-Jul-2021 19:42

Our vaccine supply situation could be worse

Venezuela to give Covax ultimatum to ship vaccines
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/446239/venezuela-to-give-covax-ultimatum-to-ship-vaccines

""
Venezuela received word from Covax in June that the last four payments had been blocked by the global financial services firm UBS. The payments to cover the $120 million fee have already been made, Maduro said.
""

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Scott3

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#2739309 5-Jul-2021 20:36

Regarding vaccine supply, as widely suspected, the following schedule has been announced (on one news) for NZ:

150,000 doses delivered yesterday (due 6 July)
150,000 doses due 13 July
350,000 doses due 20 July
350,000 doses due 27 July.

[dates populated by myself based on normal Tuesday deliveries]

Currently we are doing about 120,000 doses a week, so we have the opportunity to ramp that up by 25% to 150,000 doses per week (plus whatever meager stockpile are left in the freezers) for the next two weeks. When we hit the 20th of July we will pretty much have more vaccine than know what to do with. Vaccination rate can be nearly tipple of what it is now.

Realistically the bottleneck from the 20th of July forward are the resources to do get the vaccines into arm's, and deliveries from this point on are expected to be in the 350,000 to 500,000 dose a week range, so exact numbers from this point forward aren't critical.

Not unexpected, But great news none the less. If / when we get our vaccination program ramped to 350,000 doses a week, every week will see 3.5 percentage points added to out fully vaccinated population. At that rate (if we can it it), it would only take 14 weeks to get our population 60% vaccinated.

Will be nice to be ahead of Australia in first dose numbers as well as fully vaccinated numbers.

sbiddle

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#2739316 5-Jul-2021 20:52

KrazyKid:

Seems the UK is set to open up almost fully in two weeks no matter what.

At that point they expect 86% of adults to have had their first jab.

Since they are on 50% with 2 jabs currently that means 50% will have had 2 jabs and 2 weeks forb full immunity to set in.

As others have said it should be an interesting test case.
The number of Covid cases to hospitalization seems to be well down now despite the rising cases.
However the article mentions that there are areas in the UK where this is not the case.

I'm not sure where you saw the 50% two jabs figure - it's currently 63.8% with both, and that'll rise a lot still in the next two weeks because they reduced the time between both jabs for AZ to have more people who are fully vaccinated.

The UK is seeing an increase in hospital admissions, and they're mostly all the people who don't want vaccines.

Handle9

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#2739317 5-Jul-2021 20:53

Scott3:

Regarding vaccine supply, as widely suspected, the following schedule has been announced (on one news) for NZ:

150,000 doses delivered yesterday (due 6 July)
150,000 doses due 13 July
350,000 doses due 20 July
350,000 doses due 27 July.
[dates populated by myself based on normal Tuesday deliveries]

Currently we are doing about 120,000 doses a week, so we have the opportunity to ramp that up by 25% to 150,000 doses per week (plus whatever meager stockpile are left in the freezers) for the next two weeks. When we hit the 20th of July we will pretty much have more vaccine than know what to do with. Vaccination rate can be nearly tipple of what it is now.

Realistically the bottleneck from the 20th of July forward are the resources to do get the vaccines into arm's, and deliveries from this point on are expected to be in the 350,000 to 500,000 dose a week range, so exact numbers from this point forward aren't critical.

Not unexpected, But great news none the less. If / when we get our vaccination program ramped to 350,000 doses a week, every week will see 3.5 percentage points added to out fully vaccinated population. At that rate (if we can it it), it would only take 14 weeks to get our population 60% vaccinated.

Will be nice to be ahead of Australia in first dose numbers as well as fully vaccinated numbers.

It'll probably take 6-12 weeks to fully ramp up. They have bought fridge storage for 4 million doses so would expect to use a fair bit of that storage.

Scott3

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#2739318 5-Jul-2021 20:58

Pfizer vaccine 70% effective against Delta variant, claims study

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pfizer-vaccine-70-effective-against-delta-variant-claims-study/

"The Pfizer COVID vaccine is 70 percent effective against the new ultra-contagious Delta variant, claims a new study from the Hebrew University, according to Kan. This is compared to an approximately 95% rate of effectivity of the vaccine against earlier strains of COVID."

So the Pfizer vaccine is only good, rather than great against the Delta strain.

Unless the vaccine slows transmission of the virus a lot more than it stops infections, heard immunity is out of the window, assuming an R0 of 6 for the delta varmint in an vaccinated community. (1-.70)*6 = 1.8 R0(modified), still well greater than 1.

If the assumption that effectiveness at preventing infection = effectiveness at slowing transmission holds true, re-opening is going to be quite tough for NZ. Will need to accept that the virus will flow easily through the community. Hopefully the vaccine still preforms well enough that few vaccinated people that there will be few vaccinated deaths. But the impact on those remaining vaccinated for whatever reason will be fairly harsh.

Scott3

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#2739323 5-Jul-2021 21:02

sbiddle:

I'm not sure where you saw the 50% two jabs figure - it's currently 63.8% with both, and that'll rise a lot still in the next two weeks because they reduced the time between both jabs for AZ to have more people who are fully vaccinated.

The UK is seeing an increase in hospital admissions, and they're mostly all the people who don't want vaccines.

49.20% fully vaccinated in the UK according to the below source:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Be aware that some countries are quoting the percentage of eligible population, rather than the percentage of total population.

Oblivian

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#2739332 5-Jul-2021 21:14

Those dates v delivery may well be skewed from Tuesday assumption. They are moving to Christchurch and Akl delivery. Different flight schedules and amounts. As we have storage locally down here to supply the SI now.

Fred99

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#2739339 5-Jul-2021 21:58

Scott3:

Pfizer vaccine 70% effective against Delta variant, claims study

That's not very good. Significantly worse than others report though.

The Health UK study gave far more cause for optimism.

Scott3

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#2739343 5-Jul-2021 22:14

Fred99:

Scott3:

Pfizer vaccine 70% effective against Delta variant, claims study

That's not very good. Significantly worse than others report though.

The Health UK study gave far more cause for optimism.

It's well down on the 88% value found in a UK study, but still better than the 60% for AZ found in another UK study.

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-07-02/how-well-do-covid-19-vaccines-cover-the-delta-variant

With current data, pfizer still seems to be one of the better vaccines against delta, but perhaps data on Moderna / J+J / Novovax or the non western vaccines could flip that on it's head.

I wonder if pfizer is taking orders for booster doses yet? If so it would be tempting to order 5m booster shots for delivery in February next year...

sbiddle

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#2739422 6-Jul-2021 07:23

Scott3:

sbiddle:

I'm not sure where you saw the 50% two jabs figure - it's currently 63.8% with both, and that'll rise a lot still in the next two weeks because they reduced the time between both jabs for AZ to have more people who are fully vaccinated.

The UK is seeing an increase in hospital admissions, and they're mostly all the people who don't want vaccines.

49.20% fully vaccinated in the UK according to the below source:

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Be aware that some countries are quoting the percentage of eligible population, rather than the percentage of total population.

I should have made that clear - it was to compare the fully vaccinated figure to the partially vaccinated figure used in that post (86% vs 63.8%) rather than the fully vaccinated adults vs partially vaccinated whole population stats used in that figure.

The UK only report their figures in all media and official stats for % of adults vaccinated since they have no plans at this point to vaccinate kids.

tdgeek

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#2739423 6-Jul-2021 07:47

F1 Silverstone Grand Prix is on next weekend, I watched the last race last night, and they say Silverstone will have a full attendance. Looked at their website, they are still deciding what covid measures will be in place. Seems a stretch to allow a full attendance? Or is that reasonable based on their vaccinations?

MikeB4

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#2739427 6-Jul-2021 08:11

@tdgeek given that as of 4/7 the new case curve in the UK is doing a sharp rise with a daily average circa 24,000 up from circa 2,000 in May it would be a very stupid decision to allow full attendance. However, given the UK PMs latest announcements it will all be open and the UK will be a shambles by Autumn.

tdgeek

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#2739433 6-Jul-2021 08:19

MikeB4:

@tdgeek given that as of 4/7 the new case curve in the UK is doing a sharp rise with a daily average circa 24,000 up from circa 2,000 in May it would be a very stupid decision to allow full attendance. However, given the UK PMs latest announcements it will all be open and the UK will be a shambles by Autumn.

Yes, I was shocked to hear that. Google shows me "Silverstone will operate at a full capacity for the British Grand Prix in July, meaning more than 140,000 spectators could be in attendance for the Formula 1 race."

In a statement, it was confirmed ticket holders will be asked for either proof of a negative lateral flow test taken within 48 hours of arrival at Silverstone, or proof of full vaccination - the second dose having been received at least 14 days prior to the first day of attending the British Grand Prix.

tdgeek

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#2739435 6-Jul-2021 08:25

Im a big F1 fan, and I can see the commentators praising the efforts of F1 management for getting this and the wonderful efforts of the Government and the population for getting the UK to this great place. Oh dear.

Fred99

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#2739437 6-Jul-2021 08:32

Apparently the Israeli study was was testing all participants for infection, the UK study testing those with symptoms, so the results not as inconsistent as they seem. Neither really measure who's infectious. You could assume that infected with no symptoms aren't likely to infect others, that vaccinated people even with symptoms are less infectious, but that's not giving any magic numbers allowing a calculation of how many people need to be vaccinated to achieve mythical "herd immunity". In the end they have to try it out and see, and it's a political decision as to how many deaths are deemed to be okay.

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