2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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8267 posts

Uber Geek

#2741088 8-Jul-2021 11:36

ezbee:

We don't know how lucky we are.

Fiji announces record number of new Covid-19 cases; three deaths
https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/446412/fiji-announces-record-number-of-new-covid-19-cases-three-deaths

No sign of slowing down, having made it Covid free until March this year, it must be doubly heartbreaking.

Fiji I suppose did have a lot more international contact than one would think with military having big involvements in UN peacekeeping around the world, and cultural links to countries where SARS-Cov2 is widespread.

I see there have been calls for medical staff here for a special mission to Fiji to help.

What is most interesting is that it is happening in a country with 57%+ portion of the country having one dose of AZ ( around 10% have had both)

This and the outbreak in Sydney show the need for as many people in NZ as possible to get vaccinated when supplies arrive on mass at the end of July.....

Oblivian

7285 posts

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#2741121 8-Jul-2021 13:06

wellygary:
This and the outbreak in Sydney show the need for as many people in NZ as possible to get vaccinated when supplies arrive on mass at the end of July.....

August/September/October for Canterbury.
Although the government has a 'framework we expect all dhbs to follow'
Cdhb is going it alone and in possible firing line

The cat 3 txt invites started last week. First booked starting end of july. And the rest in 3/4 just a notice they expect a booking invite for about aug/sep out by end of July

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2741122 8-Jul-2021 13:08

38 new cases in Sydney overnight.

26 linked. 11 cases infectious in the community.

Geographical distribution is continuing to spread.

"When they find a case, all household members are found to be infected".

40 in hospital, 11 in ICU, 3 on ventilators. Cases in ICU include several below the age of 50.

Oblivian

7285 posts

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#2741124 8-Jul-2021 13:10

Fred99:
38 new cases in Sydney overnight.

26 linked. 11 cases infectious in the community.

Geographical distribution is continuing to spread.

"When they find a case, all household members are found to be infected".

As expected. But no, head on out to EB games and shop away!

Until the number of infectious in community drops (not self isolating), they wont be going anywhere. Only able to save themselves. And doing bad job at it.

tdgeek

29662 posts

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#2741129 8-Jul-2021 13:14

saw the TV report this morning - people going about their business as normal, no mask wearing and patently ignoring the health warnings

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2741130 8-Jul-2021 13:19

Oblivian:
Cdhb is going it alone and in possible firing line

They should fire the board and appoint a competent manager immediately.

It's not the time to have a dysfunctional board bickering and blame-shifting or whatever else they're doing to stuff things up. They're measurably the worst performer - and in an area with an international airport, sea port, and quarantine facilities in NZ's second largest metro area.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2741134 8-Jul-2021 13:24

At present rate of vaccine doses being administered in NSW, it'll take 500 days to finish the job.

Sharesies

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

duckDecoy

873 posts

Ultimate Geek

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#2741167 8-Jul-2021 14:36

TRIGGER WARNING - discussing miscarriages

I might be misreading this, but if not it appears concerning. It is trying to investigate if the vaccine is safe to give to pregnant women. Its all over GAB and Parlor etc which is normally an immediate bollocks warning sign, so perhaps someone can point out where its going wrong.

Check out table 4 in the recently published paper here: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2104983

One of the figures says

Pregnancy loss among participants with a completed pregnancy

published incidence v-safe pregnancy register

Spontaneous abortion: <20 wk15-17 10%–26% 104/827 (12.6%)‡

The published incidence figure is basically historical populations (so no covid vaccine) although not really checked to make sure the population matches well with those in the vaccinated group. The v-safe group are women who were vaccinated prior to or during pregnancy.

At face value it looks fine ,12.6% of the vaccinated group miscarried within the first 20 weeks, not to different to historical. But the ‡ is a footnote indicator, and it says:

‡ - Data on pregnancy loss are based on 827 participants in the v-safe pregnancy registry who received an mRNA Covid-19 vaccine (BNT162b2 [Pfizer–BioNTech] or mRNA-1273 [Moderna]) from December 14, 2020, to February 28, 2021, and who reported a completed pregnancy. A total of 700 participants (84.6%) received their first eligible dose in the third trimester. Data on neonatal outcomes are based on 724 live-born infants, including 12 sets of multiples

The thrust of the complaints I am seeing is shouldn't they have removed these 700 from the 827, seeing as 20 weeks is before the 3rd trimester. ?? ie we only had 127 vaccinated women who could have had the vaccine up to or before 20 weeks. And 104/127 = ~82% , not a good figure

But I could be being thick, have I misinterpretted the data?

Scott3

3947 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2741170 8-Jul-2021 14:52

Fred99:

38 new cases in Sydney overnight.

26 linked. 11 cases infectious in the community.

Geographical distribution is continuing to spread.

"When they find a case, all household members are found to be infected".

40 in hospital, 11 in ICU, 3 on ventilators. Cases in ICU include several below the age of 50.

Biggest daily cases of this recent outbreak, and past two weeks into lock-down. Clearly their lock-down isn't strict enough to be getting on top of this.

Although I have heard of the Sydney lock down being called lock-down lite, this is kinda worrying for New Zealand. Indicates a decent Delta outbreak here will take a harsh (L3 or L4) lockdown to get on top of, and suggestets that we would be unlikely to get on top of it in under 3 weeks, meaning any decent delta outbreak is going to be economically expensive...

Wonder if this will see a re-evaluation of isolation free travel from Aussie? Potential consequences of an outbreak seem far higher than when we opened this up. Allowing isoltation free travel from NSW to reopen to returning residents at 11:59pm tomorrow in particular seems like quite a risk the country is carrying.

Just to run some basic risk numbers, Sydney populations is 5.3m. 11 cases not in managed isolation were detected today. As a guess lets say they infected 11 more people and there are 20 existing undetected case in Sydney, making 33. Lets say pre-departure testing picks up 50% of cases (due to incubation period), that means 15 people that Potentially could travel to NZ. Lets guess 1000 travelers. (15/5.3m)*1000 = 0.3% risk of a leak to NZ. So not massive, but quite material.

Of coarse some massive assumptions in the above, which could be way off.

Good news of course is that our big shipments of vaccine are now less than two weeks away. Hopefully people are working in the background now to scramble resources and enlist pharmacies / medical centers so we can vaccinate 350,000 people a week from that point onward (ambitious).

ezbee

2375 posts

Uber Geek

#2741242 8-Jul-2021 16:13

A 10min mini high quality Documentary on the Taiwan experience.
How Taiwan held off Covid-19, until it didn't.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fhaEIlGux4

Numbers are coming down in Taiwan each day, so hopefully they can zero this out again, as they have a long wait for vaccination.
Shows how their Public Health system works and Quarantine Hotels with Mobile Phone checks, and good coordinated Public Health data.

The new variants and complacency, usual human factors test the measures required.
Thinking you are on top of it and in control, and then you find you are not.

As seen in Sydney, after poking borax at Melbourne Hotels etc, well maybe you need to check your own standards too.
Australia is interesting as central Government has been saying one thing and the individual States are more cautious.

Handle9

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#2741248 8-Jul-2021 16:48

Fred99:

Handle9:

You can not make a medical treatment compulsory. That would be incredibly unethical.

Well you actually can, and it's done relatively routinely through a court process when unwell people are deemed to be a risk to themselves or others due to mental health issues.

Not that it's likely to happen, but I'd be sure that if something like smallpox appeared and the only way to control an outbreak was to ringfence the location by 100% vaccination of a surrounding population, antivaxxers and "but my freedom" zealots wouldn't be given any choice in the matter.

The court process is because the people concerned can not be expected to give informed consent. It's the same reason that you get medical treatment when unconscious. If you aren't mentally unwell you can make that choice.

From a practical perspective there is no need for compulsory vaccination. You just limit access to things that people want (like restaurants, social gatherings, bars, movie theatres etc) unless they are vaccinated and it becomes a fait accompli.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2741249 8-Jul-2021 16:54

duckDecoy:

And 104/127 = ~82% , not a good figure

But I could be being thick, have I misinterpretted the data?

Yes - you've misinterpreted the data by missing something:

Next footnote states: A total of 96 of 104 spontaneous abortions (92.3%) occurred before 13 weeks of gestation
(ie only 8 of 104 happened in the second and third trimesters). Those numbers probably not statistically significant.

A clue is in the title : "Preliminary" Findings...

Gab / Parler are cesspits - you're 100% right there.

wellygary

8267 posts

Uber Geek

#2741250 8-Jul-2021 16:57

Handle9:

mattwnz:

In order to get it to that level, I am guessing that it will need to be compulsory at some point.

You can not make a medical treatment compulsory. That would be incredibly unethical.

You can impose other restrictions on those who are not vaccinated, which is ethical.

Ding Ding Ding,

Vaccine passports are exactly this, and will be used to "encourage" uptakes around the world,

Although I have a suspicion that the UK's throw caution to the wind is also a kind of "get vaccinated or you might get it"

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2741251 8-Jul-2021 16:59

Handle9:

Fred99:

Well you actually can, and it's done relatively routinely through a court process when unwell people are deemed to be a risk to themselves or others due to mental health issues.

Not that it's likely to happen, but I'd be sure that if something like smallpox appeared and the only way to control an outbreak was to ringfence the location by 100% vaccination of a surrounding population, antivaxxers and "but my freedom" zealots wouldn't be given any choice in the matter.

The court process is because the people concerned can not be expected to give informed consent. It's the same reason that you get medical treatment when unconscious. If you aren't mentally unwell you can make that choice.

From a practical perspective there is no need for compulsory vaccination. You just limit access to things that people want (like restaurants, social gatherings, bars, movie theatres etc) unless they are vaccinated and it becomes a fait accompli.

Yep, but some % of these dicks are zealous ignorant and persistent dicks, keeping them contained by "be kind" messages will be like herding cats, they'll need to be arrested and restrained and punished - and done in a way that doesn't turn them into heroic martyrs amongst their peers.

Handle9

11277 posts

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#2741260 8-Jul-2021 17:28

Fred99:

Handle9:

The court process is because the people concerned can not be expected to give informed consent. It's the same reason that you get medical treatment when unconscious. If you aren't mentally unwell you can make that choice.

From a practical perspective there is no need for compulsory vaccination. You just limit access to things that people want (like restaurants, social gatherings, bars, movie theatres etc) unless they are vaccinated and it becomes a fait accompli.

Yep, but some % of these dicks are zealous ignorant and persistent dicks, keeping them contained by "be kind" messages will be like herding cats, they'll need to be arrested and restrained and punished - and done in a way that doesn't turn them into heroic martyrs amongst their peers.

Yip but it's very tricky.

The consent of the governed is a major problem now. Covid fatigue is a big issue in Europe. There is a very limited appetite for lockdowns and significant restrictions, which most governments are struggling with.

The US is a different case with their own weird value set.

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