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sbiddle
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  #2741618 9-Jul-2021 07:34
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Scott3:

 

Although I have heard of the Sydney lock down being called lock-down lite, this is kinda worrying for New Zealand. Indicates a decent Delta outbreak here will take a harsh (L3 or L4) lockdown to get on top of, and suggestets that we would be unlikely to get on top of it in under 3 weeks, meaning any decent delta outbreak is going to be economically expensive...

 

 

It shows the truly massive implications we'd face here, especially with our vaccination rates still being so much lower than Australia for 1st dose which is at least going to be offering them some additional protection. What is very clear is that a L3 lockdown with exactly the same rules and guidelines that we had here previously would not stop spread. Even L4 would need additional measures particularly around mask use, physical contact and physical distancing and even workplaces with distancing are not necessarily safe with spread in air conditioning systems.

 

The scary fact is that in Sydney we're seeing entire families are being infected in households, along with everybody they are interacting with indoors such as extended family members. Without naming and shaming any particular ethnic groups we know that here in NZ during previous lockdowns that there were multiple issues particularly in South Auckland where the concept of bubbles was not followed, and when you've got so many instances of very large families living in homes and significant risk factors already present a Delta breakout in Auckland right now has the potential to be very bad.

 

The Roche report out yesterday showed massive failings in February, and I'm not sure if we've really learned lessons from that yet (even though one of the key findings was that they had failed to learn any lessons from past reports into past outbreaks).

 

 

 

 

 

 


 
 
 

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tdgeek
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  #2741623 9-Jul-2021 08:01
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Yes, it could be ominous. Factor in lockdown weariness by the masses, economic lobbying by businesses, a level 4 lockdown now would not be as effective as it was in March 2020. And the ease of spread that NSW is showing. Level 4 would need to be much more stringent and there is a case to suspend all bubbles in the interim and cut back on MIQ. MIQ, its been 18 months, why are Kiwis still returning home after all this time???


tdgeek
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  #2741628 9-Jul-2021 08:11
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The premier, Gladys Berejiklian, said on Thursday daily case numbers, the highest in NSW since the current outbreak began, were “too high” but that it was still “achievable” for the lockdown to end next Friday, “assuming everybody does the right thing”.

 

My God, the cases are rising, the peak is not here yet but possible to end the lockdown in the next 7 days, unbelievable




Oblivian
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  #2741645 9-Jul-2021 09:01
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tdgeek:

 

MIQ, its been 18 months, why are Kiwis still returning home after all this time???

 

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealanders-use-code-scripts-to-get-miq-spots-before-others/DTLXBAFCC2PWNQWYOTV7Y4FPEY/ 

 

"It makes it close to impossible for the average New Zealander to get home," said Chris Ruscoe, currently in Tennessee, about the high demand and the software enabling people to secure rooms so quickly.


  #2741649 9-Jul-2021 09:11
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Oblivian:
Tokyo: 920. On the up
Olympics in 2weeks. Poss refunding all tickets and going no spectator. 
That's going to be as economically shattering as cancelling.

 

No, it's much worse than that.

 

If they had cancelled last year, the Japanese government would have had a huge sunk capital cost of the facilities, but no running costs and no income. The real estate in the Olympic Village would have already been on the market a year and would be returning some value.

 

As it is, they will now have all the costs of running the event, probably increased by additional health precaution measures, but no spectator income whatsoever, and no additional tax revenues from adjunct expenditure on visitor accommodation and leisure activities.
Also all the facilities have stood empty a year, incurring a (probably small) additional cost.

 

From Japan's economic point of view, this is about the worst possible outcome.


sbiddle
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  #2741650 9-Jul-2021 09:14
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The report into MIQ looks at the issue with demand vs space and how rooms are allocated. It does suggest that this could possibly be outsourced to private parties to do a better job of looking after this.

 

In Australia airlines handle most bookings, and while there are pros and cons to this (the biggest con being plenty of evidence of spots being available if you're willing to book business class, but not if you book economy). On the plus side it solves most of the issues we have here with a huge disconnect between flights and rooms.


sbiddle
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  #2741651 9-Jul-2021 09:15
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I didn't see anybody post the link in here yesterday but the Independent Advisory Group review into the Feb outbreak is a very worthwhile read.

 

https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/reports/Independent-Advisory-Groups/IAG3-Review-of-the-Auckland-February-2021-COVID-19-Outbreak-and-New-Zealands-current-COVID-19-Outbreak-Response-Capability.pdf

 

 




Fred99
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  #2741652 9-Jul-2021 09:15
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tdgeek:

 

The premier, Gladys Berejiklian, said on Thursday daily case numbers, the highest in NSW since the current outbreak began, were “too high” but that it was still “achievable” for the lockdown to end next Friday, “assuming everybody does the right thing”.

 

My God, the cases are rising, the peak is not here yet but possible to end the lockdown in the next 7 days, unbelievable

 

 

She's since then "clarified" (IOW retracted) that comment, now that if all things going well. easing some lockdown restrictions may be possible.

 

Sydney Morning Herald lead story is "NSW Considers Letting Delta Circulate in the Community".

 

That is insane.

 

>10% of total cases in the cluster are hospitalised.  But wait there's more - if you allow just 7 days from diagnosis to onset of severe disease, almost half of the total were diagnosed in the past 7 days - so the real hospitalisation rate could be much higher than that.

 

That's "Delta" in a nearly completely unvaccinated community of first world citizens with a demographic spread and "co-morbidity" distribution similar to NZ.  Hard to conclude that Delta is not resulting in far more serious disease - as well as being far more contagious.  It is also hospitalising young people at far greater rates than previous variants. 

 

 

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2741660 9-Jul-2021 09:30
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Oblivian:

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealanders-use-code-scripts-to-get-miq-spots-before-others/DTLXBAFCC2PWNQWYOTV7Y4FPEY/ 

 

"It makes it close to impossible for the average New Zealander to get home," said Chris Ruscoe, currently in Tennessee, about the high demand and the software enabling people to secure rooms so quickly.

 

 

Yes, I get that, we have reduced MIQ, but if you or I were expats and decided in March 2020 that we need to get out of Covid and return to NZ when thats posisble, does it take 18 months to do that? Or are most of these "Kiwis" wanting MIQ for travel reasons, and that most Kiwis returning home, are home?


Oblivian
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  #2741667 9-Jul-2021 09:42
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tdgeek:

 

Yes, I get that, we have reduced MIQ, but if you or I were expats and decided in March 2020 that we need to get out of Covid and return to NZ when thats posisble, does it take 18 months to do that? Or are most of these "Kiwis" wanting MIQ for travel reasons, and that most Kiwis returning home, are home?

 

 

I'm not disagreeing :)

 

But I expect the latter, but continually see comments as that, which indicates people still think nearly 2yrs on that the entitlement is there and should be first in line. However I expect true stuck returnees are being punished by what it's likely made up of - seeded world travellers that refuse to stay put, going about their normal and still expecting to get home on their end of holiday period. (or 'workers' who can't do it virtually), or those bringing their family to join them in their country of work because it's a lot less restricted.


msukiwi
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  #2741670 9-Jul-2021 09:50
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The visitors to the Visa office at the Chinese Consulate here in Christchurch ha slowed to a trickle from the usual number each day over the last year.

 

Very noticeable drop!

 

Possibly MIQ vacancy availability related. 


ezbee
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  #2741675 9-Jul-2021 09:54
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I expect we don't have any statistics on regular travelers, and if we have people clogging up MIQ by using us as backdoor to Australia which has more limited MIQ space ??

 

WA Premier angry at people taking 'unnecessary' overseas travel as Perth COVID lockdown continues
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-01/wa-premier-angry-at-overseas-travellers-taking-european-holidays/100258744

""
He said a significant number of people had travelled on multiple occasions, including more than 1,300 who had left WA on two separate overseas trips and 500 people who had been abroad three times.
""


tdgeek
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  #2741678 9-Jul-2021 09:57
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Oblivian:

 

I'm not disagreeing :)

 

But I expect the latter, but continually see comments as that, which indicates people still think nearly 2yrs on that the entitlement is there and should be first in line. However I expect true stuck returnees are being punished by what it's likely made up of - seeded world travellers that refuse to stay put, going about their normal and still expecting to get home on their end of holiday period. (or 'workers' who can't do it virtually), or those bringing their family to join them in their country of work because it's a lot less restricted.

 

 

True. Maybe bona fide true returnees get high priority. Perhaps 1/4 of the spots made available say today are held for 2 weeks, the other 3/4 are first dibs to the globetrotters. Then after 2 weeks, whats left of the returnees unused spots goes back into the pool. Its also arguable that a time arrives where true returnees that have not yet returned are soon removed as a category. Maybe we need to offer registration for returnees then end it


tdgeek
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  #2741683 9-Jul-2021 09:59
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ezbee:

 


I expect we don't have any statistics on regular travelers, and if we have people clogging up MIQ by using us as backdoor to Australia which has more limited MIQ space ??

 

WA Premier angry at people taking 'unnecessary' overseas travel as Perth COVID lockdown continues
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-01/wa-premier-angry-at-overseas-travellers-taking-european-holidays/100258744

""
He said a significant number of people had travelled on multiple occasions, including more than 1,300 who had left WA on two separate overseas trips and 500 people who had been abroad three times.
""

 

 

Maybe thats answered my question. It seems truly bizzare that people are still escaping Covid and returning home, well maybe they aren't they are already home it seems.


Fred99
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  #2741731 9-Jul-2021 10:02
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Handle9:

 

Every EU reference I can see refers to mandatory isolation for TB, not mandatory treatment. It may have been misrepresented to you or you it may just you being a sensible person who complies with logical instructions.

 

 

In NZ if a patient won't adhere to treatment, as a last resort they can be detained and a court order issued to make treatment compulsory.

 

 

If the patient misses a dose, the medical officer of health and treating clinician should
be advised. In centres with a large number of cases, this reporting could occur weekly.
The medical officer of health may meet the patient to discuss any obstacles to
adherence to the *DOT regimen. Under Part 3A of the Health Act 1956, a patient must
be given the opportunity to voluntarily adhere to their treatment programme. Cases
who have missed medication doses can be given a formal direction to be available for
DOT at specified times and places, be examined, stay away from work, etc, for a
specified period up to six months.
Under Part 3A, no directions can be given to cases or contacts compelling treatment. If
adherence cannot be achieved through the use of directions, education, incentives and
support and the patient poses a public health risk (a substantial risk of harm to others),
the medical officer of health still has other options. Provided the specific statutory
preconditions are met for a particular measure, the medical officer of health can
arrange for contact tracing, issue an urgent public health order to detain the case for
72 hours until a court order can be obtained or apply for a court order for treatment.
A court order must be applied for and granted in order to require treatment. The case
has a right to appeal public health directions and court orders. Prosecution for breach
of directions or orders is a last resort.

 

*DOT = Directly Observed Treatment

 

 

Source


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