I think it's pretty clear now how at least the next 6 months will pan out across the world. Short of a new global super strain that bypasses current vaccines I also think it's pretty clear how the next 12 months will pan out as well.
The world is going to continue to open up, and the new post Covid normal world will become reality. Everybody will get on with their lives and live with this new normal. There will be a global pandemic of the unvaccinated and we'll simply see Covid numbers continue to grow as those who are unwilling to be vaccinated will become ill and many will die. Eventually the virus will die out due to increased vaccination and a lack of hosts.
It doesn't matter what side of the political spectrum you fall under, the simply fact is we cannot continue exactly how we are now beyond the middle of next year when our MIQ is scheduled to be dismantled or the country will become crippled. With no plans by the government to do anything about the broken MIQ system rather than put cover their ears when people criticise it, the critisicms are only going to grow much stronger as people's ability to carry on with their normal lives and business to engage with the new world become increasingly problematic.
Fortress NZ has to be dismantled but the problem is that a growing number of people are happy with fortress NZ. Because the PM has shut down discussion created by people like Bloomfield when they tried to raise the issue of an endemic virus, it's going to take time (and seeing the rest of the world over the next 6+ months) for a growing number of people here to realise the implications of Covid as an endemic virus that will infect those who willingly chose to not be vaccinated. Once that happens there will be a lot more support for keeping the borders shut and stopping everybody from visiting, and managing this is potentially going to be an incredibly difficult balancing act for the government.
Once everybody in NZ who wants to be vaccinated has had the opportunity by the end of the year, the risks levels don't change significantly between a reopening in January 2022 or a reopening in Jan 2023 - Covid will still exist in the world, and it will still cause the same harm to the unvaccinated when it does come past our borders.
When you look at the current impact of the RSV breakout on our health system, it becomes pretty clear that any sort of loosening of restrictions in the middle of winter is a crazy idea, but with signals already by the government already not to expect any sort of large scale opening in early 2022 it's going to mean either doing that, or simply keeping fortress NZ in place for longer which will only cause more pain for the country.
Our borders are aligned far more closely with Australia that many people realise, and even more so now. Whatever happens will probably be both countries together, much like the original lockdown strategy in 2020 where we followed Australia's plans.
I think people here understand that. But people also see you criticising the actions that are being taken now, not the ones to be taken when vaccination is achieved.
What would you like to see? No pause on the trans-Tasman bubble? You already said it multiple times: covid-19 will be endemic and affect those who are not vaccinated, to a point where it disappears for lack of bodies available to infect or transmit the virus (herd immunity).
While we don't have the spread of vaccination in place we have to manage borders to avoid exactly what you pointed out: an overrun of our health system.
The way you put your argument is partisan. We all agree with it but you blame the government for everything. Good or bad, we are so far doing well, and I think you intentionally ignore it.