2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2758078 10-Aug-2021 16:44

What went wrong in New South Wales

From Covid success story to delta tragedy, Australia’s most populous state reveals the perils of complacency in the face of a highly infectious variant. It also likely means the end of the travel bubble as we knew it. Justin Giovannetti reports.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-08-2021/what-went-wrong-in-new-south-wales/

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wellygary

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#2758079 10-Aug-2021 17:02

PolicyGuy:

What went wrong in New South Wales

From Covid success story to delta tragedy, Australia’s most populous state reveals the perils of complacency in the face of a highly infectious variant. It also likely means the end of the travel bubble as we knew it. Justin Giovannetti reports.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-08-2021/what-went-wrong-in-new-south-wales/

Basically NSW ( and potentially all of OZ) will be off limits until our borders start to relax to other "low risk" highly vaccinated countries...

When ever that it...

neb

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#2758112 10-Aug-2021 18:01

This really says it all for anti-vaxxers:

Anti-vaccine protesters storm BBC HQ – years after it moved out

Confused anti-vaccine protesters stormed what they thought was a major BBC building on Monday, apparently unaware the corporation largely moved out almost a decade ago.

Daynger

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#2758117 10-Aug-2021 18:25

Sideface:

You can be quite sure that he really, really does want treatment, the finest that (tax-payers') money can buy, because he truly believes that he is entitled to it, and because he is A VERY IMPORTANT PERSON. 🙄

He just doesn't want the personal inconvenience of prevention / vaccination.

EDIT (added text)

From the ABC: "What worries me is no matter what legal orders or requirements are in place, you can't legislate against stupidity, arrogance and entitlement," NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard said.

But you can fine/imprison against those things.

Being that he is being very uncooperative they should charge him with knowingly transmitting a disease, or just throw him in jail for 90 days straight from hospital.

Every person that catches covid that can be genomically linked to him, thats another 90days.

That would be a pretty good deterrent.

tdgeek

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#2758133 10-Aug-2021 18:34

Oblivian:

Fred99:

Taiwan had more cases of delta per day than NSW, but they've crushed it back into single figures.

Go hard, go early. Vs Goto the shops, goto the garden centre, goto open homes, goto protests

Im ok with that, as long as I can get my nails done. Seems a mean thing to say but so is spreading Covid.

DS248

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#2758134 10-Aug-2021 18:35

KrazyKid:

In the big picture 350 infections a day out of a population of over 8 million is not that big. Can't see them evacuating anytime soon.

Yes, to put it into perspective, there were over 5,000 new cases reported in Israel yesterday, per capita more than 12x the number in NSW. And on average, serious illness cases as a proportion of all cases have barely changed since the start of vaccinations.

No lockdown as such in Israel but a much higher proportion of the adult population vaccinated

Does not really bode well for the vaccination targets Morrison has been talking about for avoiding lockdowns.

tdgeek

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#2758148 10-Aug-2021 19:14

The Australian state of New South Wales has recorded its highest number of daily Covid-19 cases to date, with 356 infections detected to 8pm on Monday.

Of the cases, roughly a third were active in the community while infectious, Premier Gladys Berejiklian said.

Four more people have died overnight, including a returned traveller from overseas. None were vaccinated against the virus.

Scott3

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#2758164 10-Aug-2021 19:41

DS248:

Yes, to put it into perspective, there were over 5,000 new cases reported in Israel yesterday, per capita more than 12x the number in NSW. And on average, serious illness cases as a proportion of all cases have barely changed since the start of vaccinations.

No lockdown as such in Israel but a much higher proportion of the adult population vaccinated

Does not really bode well for the vaccination targets Morrison has been talking about for avoiding lockdowns.

Any comparison between NZ / AUS and higher vaccinated countries like Israel / UK / USA needs to consider that those countries will have a some level of natural immunity from having widespread covid-19 for many months.

As such NZ / Aus could be expected to be harder hit than say Israel.

Kinda worrying for NSW, especially Israil has exclusively use pfizer which is regarded as one of the best vaccines.

It's not like they will be able to hit say 60% of total population fully vaccianted and open up (which in itself will take months). When they reach that mark, they will need either to stay locked down for many more weeks, waiting for the combination of vaccine & lock-down to allow the virus to burn itself out, or accept a new normal (perhaps around NZ level 2 or 2.5) to allow case numbers and hospital load to be controlled to a manageable level. Sadly it doesn't seem feasible to get herd immunity against the delta variant that would allow normal life to return.

So happy NZ seems to have got lucky so far regarding delta.

Fred99

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#2758233 10-Aug-2021 21:47

Scott3:

Any comparison between NZ / AUS and higher vaccinated countries like Israel / UK / USA needs to consider that those countries will have a some level of natural immunity from having widespread covid-19 for many months.

Yep - absolutely relevant.

The UK has some amazing population data from seropositivity tests from infection and vaccination, but from what I could see no collated data on % of the population seropositive from infection but not (for any reason) vaccinated.

My guess would be that there's probably a significant % of people who've been infected, *consider themselves immune, and choose not to get vaccinated.

Thus there's probably a higher % of "immune from infection" in the unvaccinated population than in the general population. Which IIRC has about 20% of the general population testing seropositive for antibodies specific to viral antigens that could have only come from infection - not from the vaccine.

No data - just a guess based on an expectation that "hesitant" and "antivaxxers" probably never took covid very seriously in the first place, and as such were probably far more likely to get infected.

* (edit) they did not know it at the time, but seem to have been "accidentally" kind of correct, so long as you ignore that fact that they were at least 20x more likely to die or be maimed for life.

Fred99

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#2758239 10-Aug-2021 22:12

PolicyGuy:

What went wrong in New South Wales

Here's what went wrong in a nutshell:

Brackets () are mine.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-10/brad-hazzard-refuses-to-make-covid-health-advice-public/100365386

NSW Health Minister Brad Hazzard (senior state politician) has refused to publicly release documents detailing the COVID-19 advice chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant (expert public servant - who if speaks out will probably lose her job or be side-lined) provided about locking down Greater Sydney.

The Premier has continuously reiterated that the NSW government acted on "health advice" provided by Dr Chant and her team but Mr Hazzard's answers today seemed to contradict that.

"I think it's fair to say that what happens in the crisis cabinet is a really healthy discussion, because Dr Chant actually presents epidemiological advice and then there has to be discussions," he said.

"[I] actually do what a minister should do and that is to obviously listen to the advice, challenge all the underpinning aspects of whatever is being asked to be done, if it has implications for mental health, for the economy, for all of those other things."

That's abject BS. He's a lawyer by trade, with a BA in "science", whatever that means. Political "science" maybe.

alexx

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#2758263 10-Aug-2021 23:45

PolicyGuy:

What went wrong in New South Wales

From Covid success story to delta tragedy, Australia’s most populous state reveals the perils of complacency in the face of a highly infectious variant. It also likely means the end of the travel bubble as we knew it. Justin Giovannetti reports.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-08-2021/what-went-wrong-in-new-south-wales/

Quite a lot of lessons to take away from that one, but the word that stands out is 'complacency' and we have it here too.

566,036 scans so far today and about 25,000 manual entries, as we just pass 23:45. Most of the time I work from home, but tend to average 2-3 scans per day, getting lunch, visiting a local shop etc. It would be a lot more if I worked in the office and took public transport there and back. I'd be surprised if more than 250,000 people are regularly scanning. I never see them.

I'm sure they'll start scanning again when delta arrives.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

sbiddle

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#2758278 11-Aug-2021 05:11

Skegg report is finally out https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126031427/covid19-nz-government-advisory-group-says-borders-can-open-in-2022-without-forgoing-elimination-strategy

I can't find a link yet anywhere to the actual full report. It'll make interesting reading.

Handle9

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#2758281 11-Aug-2021 06:08

sbiddle: Skegg report is finally out https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126031427/covid19-nz-government-advisory-group-says-borders-can-open-in-2022-without-forgoing-elimination-strategy

I can't find a link yet anywhere to the actual full report. It'll make interesting reading.

It's less conservative than I expected.

It will be interesting how this is balanced politically. Thursday's forum will give some interesting guidance.

The one thing I would really like is reasonably firm guidance on the process of reopening. Not fixed dates or ironclad promises but some idea of what checkpoints they plan to follow.

The current situation is really quite crippling for those of us overseas. If they don't plan to reopen the border for 12 months they should say this explicitly so we can make some plans.

When things change then of course plans should change but the current state of affairs are awful.

sbiddle

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#2758284 11-Aug-2021 06:44

The report - https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/reports/Independent-Advisory-Groups/Strategic-COVID-19-Public-Health-Advisory-Group-Advice-to-Minister-Verrall-June-2021.pdf

sbiddle

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#2758285 11-Aug-2021 06:57

Handle9:
sbiddle: Skegg report is finally out https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/126031427/covid19-nz-government-advisory-group-says-borders-can-open-in-2022-without-forgoing-elimination-strategy

I can't find a link yet anywhere to the actual full report. It'll make interesting reading.

It's less conservative than I expected.

It will be interesting how this is balanced politically. Thursday's forum will give some interesting guidance.

The one thing I would really like is reasonably firm guidance on the process of reopening. Not fixed dates or ironclad promises but some idea of what checkpoints they plan to follow.

The current situation is really quite crippling for those of us overseas. If they don't plan to reopen the border for 12 months they should say this explicitly so we can make some plans.

When things change then of course plans should change but the current state of affairs are awful.

The reality is I still don't see any large scale changes until the end of next June which is the planned disestablishment of MIQ.

The government is great at putting their hands up in the air and saying things are too hard - they've done this with pretty much every difficult issue they've had to deal with in the last few years, and in many ways we're seeing this very thing happen again with MIQ right now. There are fixes that should have been implemented months ago that might possibly happen at some point in the future.

Right now there is a lot of uncertainty, and that's not something that's going to be able to continue. They're going to need to actually make tough decisions within the next couple of months because both businesses and individuals at some point need some certainty.

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