2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2759047 12-Aug-2021 13:54

wellygary:

Technofreak:

Our success/luck in largely keeping Covid out of New Zealand particularly since the initial lockdown is also our achilles heal. The risk from Covid is seen as very low so there is no urgency to get vaccinated.

What's happening in NSW is pretty damn good incentive to get vaccinated..

Also the government waving round the threat of early hard lockdowns has got to be an incentive also...

Ahh but don't you see, that's NSW that's not here, we're so much better than they are at keeping it out. Sarcasm off, though I fear a lot of New Zealanders don't see any parallels between here and what's happened in Australia.

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Technofreak

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#2759049 12-Aug-2021 14:01

Handsomedan:

wellygary:

What's happening in NSW is pretty damn good incentive to get vaccinated..

Also the government waving round the threat of early hard lockdowns has got to be an incentive also...

I have an uneasy feeling about this...the last time the govt was talking about hard lockdowns, we went into one pretty soon after.

It's been fairly quiet on the lockdown talk front, until the last couple of days...and now we are hearing it multiple times a day. Are they implying that we have some potential for leaks at the border? Softening us for the blow of an inevitable community cluster and lockdown? Maybe I am just paranoid.

Too right we have the potential for leaks at the border. Here's just two recent examples, no doubt there's others. There's the nine trawler crew that were driven from Auckland to New Plymouth, two of whom ended up testing positive for Covid, then last week the Tauranga port fiasco.

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Oblivian

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#2759050 12-Aug-2021 14:05

Statistically speaking, 'the last time' there was also 10+ a day positives hitting the shore, with several thousand bed spaces in MIQ being filled, With planeloads at a time.

We are now only doing a few hundred (they plan around I think 500 bed rotations a week nationwide), And 1 or 2 every few days. A lot higher odds for the warnings. Now, the warnings are based on NZ complacency, the changes to get jabs in arms. And shear spread rates of delta globally.

Boy scout mode, be prepared and all that. Is a lot easier than to blame for 'we told you so' and no warning.

/edit spoke too soon - vilifying but be nice to report on their vaccination status...

There are eight new Covid cases to report today in managed isolation.

The latest cases are travellers from Malaysia, India, Japan and the United Kingdom.

tdgeek

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#2759054 12-Aug-2021 14:13

Technofreak:

Ahh but don't you see, that's NSW that's not here, we're so much better than they are at keeping it out. Sarcasm off, though I fear a lot of New Zealanders don't see any parallels between here and what's happened in Australia.

I agree with the latter point, many are ambivalent. What's on Shorty and the AB's game is the news of the week.

But no need for sarcasm off, its a fact we are better than they are. Maybe that's a prime cause of ambivalence here. But I'd rather have that than Covid fatigue, Covid protest anger and excessive flouting that they now have. Ambivalence can be fixed when we get a nationwide alert on Delta CT cases hit all news waves.

Handle9

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#2759060 12-Aug-2021 14:27

Handle9:
sbiddle:
Right now there is a lot of uncertainty, and that's not something that's going to be able to continue. They're going to need to actually make tough decisions within the next couple of months because both businesses and individuals at some point need some certainty.

I don't expect certainty as that's unrealistic - things will change. I would like clarity in what the process they will follow will look like.

At the moment it's guesses and interpretation of vague statements that are designed not to upset anyone at the expense of not saying much.

I'm reasonably happy with what has been presented in the media. I need to go back and watch the stream but it seems a reasonably logical way to proceed.

Handle9

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#2759062 12-Aug-2021 14:30

Handsomedan:
wellygary:

What's happening in NSW is pretty damn good incentive to get vaccinated..

Also the government waving round the threat of early hard lockdowns has got to be an incentive also...

I have an uneasy feeling about this...the last time the govt was talking about hard lockdowns, we went into one pretty soon after.

It's been fairly quiet on the lockdown talk front, until the last couple of days...and now we are hearing it multiple times a day. Are they implying that we have some potential for leaks at the border? Softening us for the blow of an inevitable community cluster and lockdown? Maybe I am just paranoid.

There is absolutely the likelihood of a border leak. It's inevitable.

Where you have people you will have a possibility of things breaking down. Where you have large numbers of people you have certainty.

mattwnz

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#2759063 12-Aug-2021 14:32

Batman:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-the-plan-to-re-open-nz-home-isolation-shorter-miq-for-vaccinated-travellers/MPEMUWBNFGXQHDG7QJFV7GMMEU/

Trusting people to self isolate doesn’t work, it was proven last time as you simply can’t trust people. Plus people then go and visit them. When will we learn. We need everyone to be vaccinated, the experts previously said 99%. Voluntary vaccination may only result in 60-70%. NZs health systems and capacity are no where near as good as Australias as NZ is a relatively poor country, even though many may feel rich owning a million dollar house.

tdgeek

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#2759065 12-Aug-2021 14:49

mattwnz:
Batman:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-the-plan-to-re-open-nz-home-isolation-shorter-miq-for-vaccinated-travellers/MPEMUWBNFGXQHDG7QJFV7GMMEU/

Trusting people to self isolate doesn’t work, it was proven last time as you simply can’t trust people. Plus people then go and visit them.

When will we learn. .

We will learn when trialists do this as a test, and Prof Skegg has already raised voluntary is not a good solution with Delta. The trial will get more data, plus enforcement may apply depending on findings

Remember, we either lock ourselves away forever or we open up when everyone is vaccinated, thats the choice. With the latter it WILL get here

Oblivian

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#2759066 12-Aug-2021 14:49

mattwnz:

Trusting people to self isolate doesn’t work, it was proven last time as you simply can’t trust people. Plus people then go and visit them. When will we learn. We need everyone to be vaccinated, the experts previously said 99%. Voluntary vaccination may only result in 60-70%. NZs health systems and capacity are no where near as good as Australias as NZ is a relatively poor country, even though many may feel rich owning a million dollar house.

Not that I wholeheartedly agree with it either. The govt is working off real data. And the goalposts are continuing to change. This isn't the same 2020 level 3 (the anniversary of ours is today/this week) un-trust we have seen. This is jabbed in arm numbers growing, An actual known working defensive measure - while Delta changes the landscape slightly from then and the needs and measures against it change.

A figure was out (that I now can't seem to find) that Canada had 8 infections of ~17,000 vaccinated and tested returnees. That's a lot better odds than our MiQ defence border currently with 8 today!

What does it show? That if inbounds from countries following similar regime are rapid tested with 24hrs of arrival. There is a better change we're all safe with them doing it at home than the 8 that arrived in the last 24hrs could expose us to.

/edit - actually it's in that article

She said in Canada, of 17,000 vaccinated people to cross its borders, eight had Covid-19

ezbee

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#2759068 12-Aug-2021 14:51

Young people are great for moving viruses around.
Job is not really complete until vaccination is at a high level across complete population.

Noting Israel high percentage fully vaccinated is not so flash when you look at total population 62%
https://ourworldindata.org/vaccination-israel-impact

UK about 58%

When looking at Japan rising cases, do note their testing rate is very very low so data on cases that don't make it to hospital poor..

Delta coronavirus variant is putting babies and children in special isolation wards in Japanese hospitals
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-11/coronavirus-wards-for-babies-as-delta-tears-through-japan/100363872

""
Crying, confused and alone, baby Sara pulls herself up the bars of her cot as her caregiver leaves the room.
At just 15 months old, Sara — a pseudonym to protect her privacy — has tested positive for COVID-19.
She will spend about eight days recovering in a special isolation ward just for children.
Sara has been separated from her mum, who also has coronavirus, and is being treated in a different hospital.
""

US urged to fast-track vaccine approval for children under 12 as cases rise
Children accounted for 15% of new Covid cases reported last week, American Academy of Pediatrics data analysis shows
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/10/us-covid-vaccine-children-under-12-cases

With Delta either being more serious in children, or with older people dying in numbers last year we were not looking too hard ?
Either way we will be needing to vaccinate children for their own sake, and it will bring up that total population %.

DS248

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#2759069 12-Aug-2021 15:04

Canberra to enter 7-day lockdown from 5:00pm today following one new case of C19, the first there in 105 days.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-12/canberra-records-new-case-of-covid-19-sending-act-into-lockdown/100370616

Handle9

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#2759077 12-Aug-2021 15:24

mattwnz:
Batman:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-the-plan-to-re-open-nz-home-isolation-shorter-miq-for-vaccinated-travellers/MPEMUWBNFGXQHDG7QJFV7GMMEU/

Trusting people to self isolate doesn’t work, it was proven last time as you simply can’t trust people. Plus people then go and visit them. When will we learn. We need everyone to be vaccinated, the experts previously said 99%. Voluntary vaccination may only result in 60-70%. NZs health systems and capacity are no where near as good as Australias as NZ is a relatively poor country, even though many may feel rich owning a million dollar house.

The risk factors in a reasonably well vaccinated population with vaccinated passengers is quite different.

It's not zero but it's different. You will not eliminate covid globally and you will not get to 90% vaccination. At that point you need to plan for the possible.

wellygary

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#2759080 12-Aug-2021 15:43

DS248:

Canberra to enter 7-day lockdown from 5:00pm today following one new case of C19, the first there in 105 days.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-12/canberra-records-new-case-of-covid-19-sending-act-into-lockdown/100370616

This is a pretty good guide to what is likely to happen in NZ,

It will likely have come across the border from NSW.. but this case is probably 2 or 3 in the transmission chain ( if they are lucky)

ezbee

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#2759081 12-Aug-2021 15:55

In Germany.
Anti-vax Red Cross nurse 'injected 8600 people with saline solution instead of vaccine'
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-anti-vax-red-cross-nurse-injected-8600-people-with-saline-solution-instead-of-vaccine/SKHXXUSFXVFIW6KAKRK7CNUWOA/

Well I suppose it was nice she used sterile saline rather than the chlorinated magic water, but not by much.

I'm finding it very hard to see why we would allow people who will not vaccinate to train and register as a nurse, which I understand we do.
What is the point ?
Maybe also you decide other 'artificial' interventions are not necessary to perform as well.
I've heard a disturbing story here around measles vaccination for a child where helpful nurse discouraged vaccination.

Much like very good reason to not allow pharmacies to sell homeopathic remedies.
Though a lot of other stuff pharmacies sell are borderline, when it can be an important point of contact for some people.

Batman

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#2759183 12-Aug-2021 17:59

We're on CNN

https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/new-zealand-covid-19-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

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