2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2762743 18-Aug-2021 21:06

Dingbatt:

Once the contact tracing is overwhelmed we are time-warped back to 26 March 2020. Two weeks to flatten the curve, then another two weeks to be sure. I hope it doesn’t come to that and we have at least learnt how to protect the most vulnerable.

Is it me or is there a lot more "essential" services running during lockdown 4.1 compared to 4.0 in march 2020

don't get me wrong i think it's great.

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Scott3

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#2762745 18-Aug-2021 21:35

Batman:

Is it me or is there a lot more "essential" services running during lockdown 4.1 compared to 4.0 in march 2020

don't get me wrong i think it's great.

If my recollection is correct there were a raft of small softening's throughout the last level 4 lockdown. I don't think there have been many notable changes since the end of the last level 4, and this one (other than the mask stuff added today).

One of the more notable, was allowing distribution centers to reopen just to ship goods deemed as essential, including for working from home. I don't have too much of an issue with this, given that the lockdown had at that point run for weeks, it is a bit harsh that somebody who's washing machine has broken couldn't order a replacement.

A less notable one included allowing people to visit workplaces for maintaining the condition or value of premises / plant / stock. For example garden store could have somebody go in and water the indoor plants, preventing many thousands of dollars of stock from dying.

Dingbatt

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#2762746 18-Aug-2021 21:36

Batman:

Is it me or is there a lot more "essential" services running during lockdown 4.1 compared to 4.0 in march 2020

don't get me wrong i think it's great.

17 months ago we were told continuously “there isn’t a playbook for this”. Well now there should be, even if it’s written in crayon. If there isn’t, then what the heck have the officials been doing for all this time? Hence Level 4.1 (or more appropriately Level 4 (2021)).

I hope they took the time to examine our level system. I think there was a suggestion of more levels to ease back out of restrictions. But it seems the Ministry of Health is like a deer in the headlights every time something happens.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

JayADee

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#2762747 18-Aug-2021 21:39

I'm finding this scarier this time around and a lot more stressful.

The only good thing about it is the lack of people other than fellow dog walkers on the street which gives my over exuberant young dog a chance to practice distant dog socialisation. He needs the practice, he's slowly getting over being over excitable every time he sees another dog. Today on a half hour walk he got to see 3 and handled them all very well.

Scott3

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#2762749 18-Aug-2021 21:41

Dingbatt:

Once the contact tracing is overwhelmed we are time-warped back to 26 March 2020. Two weeks to flatten the curve, then another two weeks to be sure. I hope it doesn’t come to that and we have at least learnt how to protect the most vulnerable.

While contact tracing is worth the effort, to try to work out the scale of the outbreak, I think the current places of interest list is too big to be confident of capturing every case via contract tracing (regardless of capacity).

So the lockdown will need to be the main way of dealing with this. Basically we will need to lock down long enough that any missed cases burn themselves out.

Does seem that the delta strain is a lot faster than the orginal covid-19, so potentially 14 days could cover two transmission cycles.

antonknee

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#2762752 18-Aug-2021 21:53

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Yes, but does that really matter? It must be from the border. So, its a leak. The issue now is spread, post that cause.

Yes it does matter. If it's shown that that case is genomically linked to the other cases, then her movements can be used to trace pointss of contact and makes ring-fencing the cluster much easier.

As last time I read the news they hadn't established that path of transmission, they may not be able to close it off, but it's good news. If she's the index case, they'll be able to estimate how long she's been infected and infectious in the community.

It may be a day or so before it can be genomically linked.

Yeah, this. Essentially it could mean that we’ve found the beginning of the chain and one end of it - now just finding all the middle bits (the people it’s spread to). If we have found the source, it reduces the chance of multiple undetected chains of transmission - which can only be a good thing given how bad things already are.

Plus it’s good for my anxiety hahaha even if none of the above makes a difference.

Oblivian

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#2762753 18-Aug-2021 21:54

Still think some retail are stretching it.

I thought it was lvl3 that was 4 with takeaways and more outdoors CnC right?

Yet couldn't get an office transfer today for WFH kit as the courier wouldn't recognize IT at a customer as essential.

The local booze shop has stood up and hard promoting Contactless home delivery.
And the local bike shop...

You can still shop online and have items delivered by contactless delivery. Items must be essential to keep your bike rolling for either transportation or health and fitness. We will be using our discretion, if your order is not deemed as essential this will be processed once the Government restrictions allow. Essential items ordered will need to be 'in-store' and not located in our warehouse

Geektastic

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#2762754 18-Aug-2021 22:02

I'm getting the impression this all might go on a fair bit longer than a week or so.

I think the non Auckland parts will see a full 14 days for a start.

antonknee

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#2762757 18-Aug-2021 22:16

Oblivian: Still think some retail are stretching it.

I thought it was lvl3 that was 4 with takeaways and more outdoors CnC right?

Because they are stretching it. Defining essential and setting up an offer that meets the letter and spirit of the law is literally what I’ve spent the last two days doing, and it’s frustrating knowing that I’m putting the effort in while others play fast and loose at the potential expense of their team, and of everyone else’s efforts in the lockdown.

Some retailers went early with promoting “deliveries still available across our full range”. I have no clue why - this is incorrect and would never have been allowed. The guidance was very clear that it’s essential only (if you are non-food retail). Some are claiming the guidance is not clear - it’s pretty clear.

Put on your big boy pants and apply a reasonable definition of essential. Cologne and Christmas lights are not essential.

antonknee

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#2762760 18-Aug-2021 22:20

Dingbatt:

Batman:

Is it me or is there a lot more "essential" services running during lockdown 4.1 compared to 4.0 in march 2020

don't get me wrong i think it's great.

17 months ago we were told continuously “there isn’t a playbook for this”. Well now there should be, even if it’s written in crayon. If there isn’t, then what the heck have the officials been doing for all this time? Hence Level 4.1 (or more appropriately Level 4 (2021)).

I hope they took the time to examine our level system. I think there was a suggestion of more levels to ease back out of restrictions. But it seems the Ministry of Health is like a deer in the headlights every time something happens.

I actually think this is quite an unfair take. The list of things that can operate at Alert Level 4 is actually a lot longer and better defined than it was last time - because we have quite literally written the playbook over the last 18 months.

Please do remember that in the early days of original level 4 it was nothing except supermarkets basically - then things were added, for example hardware merchants, places that sold essential items like heaters, etc etc.

Fred99

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#2762761 18-Aug-2021 22:25

Dingbatt:

Once the contact tracing is overwhelmed we are time-warped back to 26 March 2020. Two weeks to flatten the curve, then another two weeks to be sure. I hope it doesn’t come to that and we have at least learnt how to protect the most vulnerable.

Yep. If contact tracing exceeds capability, then without an effective lockdown, we'll be in the same position as NSW.

if the woman is confirmed as the "index case", lockdown seems to be keeping the R0 <1, sewage testing (ramped up / more regular now I think) stays clear, then there's a viable path to ease lockdowns.

Without the index case confirmed, then the present cluster could have been seeded from anywhere, and could re-seed if lockdown is eased.

Batman

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#2762762 18-Aug-2021 22:29

antonknee:

I actually think this is quite an unfair take. The list of things that can operate at Alert Level 4 is actually a lot longer and better defined than it was last time - because we have quite literally written the playbook over the last 18 months.

Please do remember that in the early days of original level 4 it was nothing except supermarkets basically - then things were added, for example hardware merchants, places that sold essential items like heaters, etc etc.

i think the more prolonged the lockdown, the more essential to be able to perform contactless trades. unless contactless can spread virus ... who knows!

Scott3

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#2762763 18-Aug-2021 22:32

With regards to vaccination, I think many will be happy that the 48hr pause got cut short.

While vaccination isn't going to help us immediately, there is always a risk with the delta strain that we won't be able to eliminate the virus, and we could even end up with a NSW style mess. Maximizing vaccination numbers would be really helpful if that happens. And every weekday is worth 40k+ doses at the moment.

With hindsight our vaccine prioritisation was far from optimal given our strategy was to lock down hard at the sniff of a case.

Pretty disappointing the police force didn't make the cut as a priory group months ago. Sounds like 10k+ not vaccinated. They are the people that have to go and arrest maskless lawbreakers during lockdown...

It seems that prioritising vaccines to those more likely to be exposed & spread the virus, would have served NZ better the approach of prioritising based on risk of harm if they were exposed.

We chose not to take learning from Sydney where essential workers were a major vector for spread in their lockdown, and haven't given any prioritisation yet to those workers.

Ultimately (beyond groups 1 & 2) we have ended up with the vaccine going disproportionately to demographics that have less social contact.

Oblivian

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#2762764 18-Aug-2021 22:34

We're up to 54 POIs.

And as early as Aug 3.

Cruuuddd.. someone's been symptomatic for longer than they should be, or has a long 1:1 link space between

Scott3

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#2762765 18-Aug-2021 22:46

Air crew member tests positive

Last duty flight arrived in NZ on sunday from japan. To recent to have triggered the cases we are locked down over (and not NSW substrain).

But obviously needs to be contact traced, and may have triggered an independent cluster.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-air-nz-crew-member-tests-positive/URND4ZQMOK4NOUNMA6D5DZAYAA/

I have been pleasantly suppressed how few air crews cases NZ has seen over the pandemic as a whole. Given our relaxed treatment of air crew compared to other arrival groups, I had predicted this to be more of an issue.

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