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cddt
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  #2438417 15-Mar-2020 10:00
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Fred99:

 

The figures from Italy are showing the same/similar gender imbalance in mortality as was apparent in Wuhan, also a difference in diagnosed infection rate.  More cases identified in men (yet there will be more women aged 60+ in the community), and when infected, men are more likely to die - about 2/3 more likely.

 

 

The imbalance in Wuhan seemed to correlate with the very high number of smokers amongst Chinese men - and very low number of smokers amongst women.  I don't believe that's the case in Italy where smoking rates are much lower overall, and there's far less difference in smoking rate in men and women.  Unless perhaps there's a correlation between ex-smokers (who quit long ago), a prior imbalance in smoking by gender (possible I guess - and probably true for many countries incl NZ, I think 30 years ago more men tended to smoke, and when they did, they probably smoked more).  However it seems quite likely that the imbalance isn't to do with smoking - or at least it's not the main reason.

 

 

 

 

More men smoke in Italy (23%) compared with women (15%) (both 2015 figures). I don't have historical or age stratified figures though.

 

One other thing to consider is that even though there will be more women 65+ in the community than men, the men who make it past this age are more likely to be living with a partner. As more men die early, a lot of elderly women are (sadly) very isolated because they live alone and have limited mobility.


 
 
 
 

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Batman

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  #2438418 15-Mar-2020 10:01
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kiwiharry: Has anybody read or heard anything about what happens if a traveller who arrives into the country from tomorrow but attempts to fly back out again before the 14 day self isolation period is up?

Would they get stopped at the border?

 

why would they be stopped from leaving lol. but sorry i can't answer your question.


cddt
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  #2438419 15-Mar-2020 10:03
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Fred99:

 

Probably - but like elsewhere we have created a global liquidity trap where there's not enough room to move interest rates to stimulate demand. 

 

 

 

 

Fortunately there are other ways of stimulating demand than interest rates (*listens for helicopters*). A lot of people don't agree with it, and won't like it, but extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.




FineWine
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  #2438425 15-Mar-2020 10:14
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I noticed that over the past few days Simon Bridges, whom I call Mr Negativity, has been very very quiet. In fact the Opposition per se has been quiet.

 

I hope there has been bilateral information flow between government and all parties without party politics and individualistic election year antics raising its ugly head.

 

This is or has become like a war cabinet scenario. After all we are ALL in the same Waka ❗️





Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.


tdgeek
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  #2438426 15-Mar-2020 10:16
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vexxxboy:

 

Self isolation is not Quarantine, you dont have to be locked in your house for 14 days you can move around you just have to avoid close contact , keep a metre away from people and avoid social gatherings.

 

 

From the PM

 

"Doesn't mean you can't go outside, you can take a walk around the block, but you can't go into public places and places where you're interacting with others."

 

 


freitasm
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  #2438427 15-Mar-2020 10:17
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Denmark closed borders with military called in. France to shutdown cafes, restaurants, cinemas and theatres.




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GV27
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  #2438428 15-Mar-2020 10:19
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Fred99:

 

GV27:

 

In ten days the RBNZ has an OCR announcement, hard to pick anything but a massive cut at the moment. 

 

 

Probably - but like elsewhere we have created a global liquidity trap where there's not enough room to move interest rates to stimulate demand. 

 

 

I have long suspected we are heading towards a Japanese style deflationary situation (no control over the currency, long periods of little growth, ageing population issues, work/lifestyle balance and wage issues we do not have the flexibility to address).

 

They have gone to effectively negative interest rates. I suspect we are about to move that way too. Zero is no longer the floor it once was when it comes to central banking.

 

Of course, we could see more targeted intervention (e.g. using Kiwibank to offer a sustainable mortgage product for owner-occupiers) or even through the banks themselves. Frankly I'm not sure what the hell is going to happen. But I know we are heading towards a 0% OCR a lot quicker than we were a month ago. 




tdgeek
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  #2438429 15-Mar-2020 10:19
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FineWine:

 

I noticed that over the past few days Simon Bridges, whom I call Mr Negativity, has been very very quiet. In fact the Opposition per se has been quiet.

 

I hope there has been bilateral information flow between government and all parties without party politics and individualistic election year antics raising its ugly head.

 

This is or has become like a war cabinet scenario. After all we are ALL in the same Waka ❗️

 

 

There has been agreement between the two main parties on the latest measures. He did say that the new measures are due to pressure from National and the NZ people. So he is still alive and well!  :-)

 

 


Fred99
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  #2438430 15-Mar-2020 10:23
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cddt:

 

One other thing to consider is that even though there will be more women 65+ in the community than men, the men who make it past this age are more likely to be living with a partner. As more men die early, a lot of elderly women are (sadly) very isolated because they live alone and have limited mobility.

 

 

That also makes sense in that the only decile (apart from 90+) where there are more cases in women than men (56:44) is 20-29 YO, presumably because they're more socially mobile at that age.


Batman

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  #2438513 15-Mar-2020 10:48
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FineWine:

 

I noticed that over the past few days Simon Bridges, whom I call Mr Negativity, has been very very quiet. In fact the Opposition per se has been quiet.

 

I hope there has been bilateral information flow between government and all parties without party politics and individualistic election year antics raising its ugly head.

 

This is or has become like a war cabinet scenario. After all we are ALL in the same Waka ❗️

 

 

there is no voice for opposition in times like these. usually the incumbent will hold on to power in an election. NZ and US have elections.


mudguard
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  #2438515 15-Mar-2020 11:20
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FineWine:

 

I noticed that over the past few days Simon Bridges, whom I call Mr Negativity, has been very very quiet.

 

 

Some friends of mine are very pro National. I've often said to them that Simon Bridges is possibly Labour's second biggest asset. He should really be using this to say that we will support what is being done, that we would have done it slightly differently, but embrace Labour's handling etc. I hate the style of politics of taking the opposing view purely as you're not in power. I think people would come across a lot better if it wasn't so confrontational all the time.

 

 

 

On another note, and this came up early, I'd mentioned I'd put my Kiwisaver into a conservative fund over a year ago. I gave myself a deadline, one year out from settlement and I needed my balance to be predictable. I was a little annoyed at an earlier headline saying first home buyers in trouble about still be in growth funds. Surely if you are thinking about buying a house within the next two years you'd change your investment strategy.


kingdragonfly
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  #2438516 15-Mar-2020 11:21
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David Ropeik: How Risky Is It, Really?

Real Time with Bill Maher (HBO)

"How Risky Is It, Really" author David Ropeik joins Bill to discuss human behavior in response to threats both real and perceived.


GV27
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  #2438518 15-Mar-2020 11:45
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mudguard:

 

FineWine:

 

I noticed that over the past few days Simon Bridges, whom I call Mr Negativity, has been very very quiet.

 

 

Surely if you are thinking about buying a house within the next two years you'd change your investment strategy.

 

 

Most advice around what fund is right for you is based on 'how far away are you from retirement', not 'how soon do you need your Kiwisaver funds for anything'. I made the switch six months before I knew I would be buying.

 

I've just changed my future contributions to buying 80% aggressive fund units. I've kept my existing funds in a more balanced set-up. If you have the option to use separate strategies for your future funds and your current balance then people should be looking into this urgently.  


freitasm
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  #2438519 15-Mar-2020 11:49
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Not buying a house, and looking at Kiwisaver for retirement only. Just last month changed contribution to 8%.




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Geektastic
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  #2438520 15-Mar-2020 11:50
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Expect something similar here if we get more cases - this is from the UK news.

 

 

 

"Entire families will soon be told to self-isolate if just one of them falls ill with coronavirus symptoms, while friends and relatives of older and more vulnerable people will be asked to help "shield" them from the outbreak, it emerged last night.  

 

The move is likely to come in the next two weeks - sooner than had been anticipated - and will signal a ramping up of measures to protect people from the spread of the virus.

 

It would mean parents in the affected household would have to keep their children off school.

 

Officials yesterday confirmed the UK had reached a total of 1,140 cases of COVID-19, with the number dying almost doubling to 21.

 

Government scientists had warned only last Thursday that further measures to control the spread of the disease could include stricter self-isolation arrangements, where if one household member falls ill, the entire household is asked to stay home for 14 days."






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