2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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155 posts

Master Geek

#2766269 25-Aug-2021 02:08

clinty:

sbiddle:

Our 12+ population is just on 4.4m so we'd need 8.8m doses for 100% coverage of the eligible population. The MoH vaccine xls page still shows a figure of just over 4m because it hasn't been updated from the 16+ guidance.(4.09m people aged 16+).

Does anybody know what wastage is? I thought I heard an estimated 2-3% a few months ago. And more importantly is 10m based of 5 or 6 vaccines per vial?

Many people have taken snippits of the Oxford study (and other studies) about decreasing antibodies and through a lack of understanding assume that this is really bad, and that the vaccines are becoming ineffective, which is simply not true.

Every vaccination delivers neutalising antibodies which weaken over time, and that's how they're supposed to work. We still have B and T cell protection that stays in place and is probably the most important part of a vaccine long term.

What we do know is that for some at risk people the body's response in creating neutralising antibodies, and subsequently B cell and T cell responses, does differ. For those people a 3rd shot may deliver a significant boost in protection.

Pretty sure they have always quoted doses - never vials, so assume its a consistent amount per vial ( doesn't actually matter how many )

Would be interested to see the wastage stat as well

Any chance if we ping a journalist on twitter they can lob the question in with thier "I have some questions of behalf of colleagues" segment lol

Clint

Yet to get through the rest of thread but, government appear to quote bookings as a relevant statistic. I'm yet to observe any other country quoting bookings as a statistic. I know people who have made a booking but found a way to get it earlier without the official channels. Bookings mean nothing to me. Jabs in arms do.

There should be close to zero wastage with Pfizer. But these will be recorded. It's expensive and it's a multidose vial. You'd be an idiot to waste doses.

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Handle9

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#2766273 25-Aug-2021 06:38

This is really quite wonderful. Mean, but quite wonderful.

tdgeek

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#2766274 25-Aug-2021 06:45

Batman:

all i hear in the news is x person contracted covid and has been fully vaccinated

i speak to people everyday who doesn't want the vaccine because "it doesn't work"

i think the MOH should explain the purpose of vaccination in the main and social media

Yes. A vaccinated nurse and Finn Allen a Black Cap batsman also vaccinated has Covid. What is "having" Covid? If you are vaccinated and lets say you are in the 90% effective, you can inhale the virus, its on your nasal passage, and breeding, but your body and the vaccine have taken care of it. No sickness, not infected, happy. But I imagine you would get a positive test as they test the nasal area?

There is a difference between being infected and carrying it in your nose, that you may have just inhaled recently? Maybe it hangs around your nasal area for a while till the vaccine takes care of it?

Handle9

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#2766275 25-Aug-2021 06:56

tdgeek:
Batman:

all i hear in the news is x person contracted covid and has been fully vaccinated

i speak to people everyday who doesn't want the vaccine because "it doesn't work"

i think the MOH should explain the purpose of vaccination in the main and social media

Yes. A vaccinated nurse and Finn Allen a Black Cap batsman also vaccinated has Covid. What is "having" Covid? If you are vaccinated and lets say you are in the 90% effective, you can inhale the virus, its on your nasal passage, and breeding, but your body and the vaccine have taken care of it. No sickness, not infected, happy. But I imagine you would get a positive test as they test the nasal area?

There is a difference between being infected and carrying it in your nose, that you may have just inhaled recently? Maybe it hangs around your nasal area for a while till the vaccine takes care of it?

Oh dear.

Finn Allen is symptomatic. An infection isn't just covid hanging out in your nose.

tdgeek

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#2766281 25-Aug-2021 07:17

Handle9:

Oh dear.

Finn Allen is symptomatic. An infection isn't just covid hanging out in your nose.

Geez, why the oh dear, I just asked a simple question. But you've answered my question, if you are fully protected by the vaccine but its hanging around in your nose you are infected. My point was is infection "just" if its living in your body despite the vaccine, or if you are protected by the vaccine so it's just being a nasal carrier, that's still classed as infected. No, I didnt google if he was symptomatic, I should have

Batman

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#2766285 25-Aug-2021 07:33

That's a very good question.

Someone keep an eye on whether any vaccinated and infected manages to transmit the virus in this outbreak

tdgeek

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#2766286 25-Aug-2021 07:39

Batman: That's a very good question.

Someone keep an eye on whether any vaccinated and infected manages to transmit the virus in this outbreak

The nurse at Middlemore is vaccinated but asymptomatic, they say the risk is low as she is fully vaccinated. IIRC the viral load, which is much lower if vaccinated is higher with Delta (I think). It seems that truly infected or just a carrier is the same thing

vexxxboy

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#2766290 25-Aug-2021 07:46

Handle9: This is really quite wonderful. Mean, but quite wonderful.

i laughed at the smoking segment. God they are stupid.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

sbiddle

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#2766307 25-Aug-2021 08:38

tdgeek:

Batman: That's a very good question.

Someone keep an eye on whether any vaccinated and infected manages to transmit the virus in this outbreak

The nurse at Middlemore is vaccinated but asymptomatic, they say the risk is low as she is fully vaccinated. IIRC the viral load, which is much lower if vaccinated is higher with Delta (I think). It seems that truly infected or just a carrier is the same thing

Singapore article from this morning finds asymptomatic numbers in the fully vaccinated are way higher - that poses significant long term challenges for us maintaining an elimination strategy because while we can have surveillance testing of frontline and border workers (which is how this nurse was picked up) we can't do this with the general public.

I'm sure now somebody will think "but we have surveillance testing of the population using sewage" but I've read a few studies on wastewater testing in recent weeks and one thing that I haven't read anything conclusive about is RNA levels in feces of fully vaccinated people. One report (which I now can't find to quote here) expressed some concern that while fully vaccinated can still have good levels of RNA in the respiratory tract even if asymptomatic, that they may not actually be shedding the same levels of the virus (and therefore the RNA) in their feces.

tdgeek

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#2766322 25-Aug-2021 09:05

sbiddle:

Singapore article from this morning finds asymptomatic numbers in the fully vaccinated are way higher - that poses significant long term challenges for us maintaining an elimination strategy because while we can have surveillance testing of frontline and border workers (which is how this nurse was picked up) we can't do this with the general public.

I'm sure now somebody will think "but we have surveillance testing of the population using sewage" but I've read a few studies on wastewater testing in recent weeks and one thing that I haven't read anything conclusive about is RNA levels in feces of fully vaccinated people. One report (which I now can't find to quote here) expressed some concern that while fully vaccinated can still have good levels of RNA in the respiratory tract even if asymptomatic, that they may not actually be shedding the same levels of the virus (and therefore the RNA) in their feces.

Thanks for that. Does this mean that a fully vaccinated person who is within the 90% effective, and thus wont get sick, can be carrying RNA throughout their full respiratory tract, including lungs, but the vaccine works to protect them from lung damage? If so, then the virus will be permanently with us and spreading? Or if I was fully vaccinated, and "infected", for me the virus will die within me in around 14 days? My line of thinking is we have the flu here endemically, but not that many get the flu every year. I assume those that don't get the flu have no flu virus in them at any time in the Winter. But Delta, given its ease of transmission, could well be inside most of us, most of the time? No symptoms or issues, circa 14 days to spread it to others, then its dies within that host, but is alive in the new hosts it spread to, and so on?

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#2766327 25-Aug-2021 09:10

But on average how infectious are fully vaccinated, infected - but asymptomatic people?

(My guess is much less)

Assume that the R0 is 5.

So, if, in a group of 10 infected people two pass the infection on to 25 people each, and the other 8 don't pass it on to anybody at all, then the R0 is still 5. You've got "superspreaders".

And that's more or less how Covid seems to have behaved since the start, including in NZ's first clusters.

So even in populations like the UK where they've got relatively high vaccination rates and they're still detecting 30,000 new infections per day, could it be that most of those infections are being passed on by unvaccinated superspreaders, or could it be that most have been passed on by less infectious vaccinated infected people due to easing of social distancing restrictions etc. - superspreading events.

I don't think they know because contact tracing the 30,000 daily infections is impossible. We'd get a better idea here, and it seems to support that superspreading individuals and events are the problem.

Which IMO means that until we reach the magic and yet unknown "safe" % of the population vaccinated, even if we ease down lockdown levels then large gatherings should still be restricted, and that's not going to make some people very happy.

tdgeek

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#2766333 25-Aug-2021 09:16

Fred99:

But on average how infectious are fully vaccinated, infected - but asymptomatic people?

I always thought that infected meant its in my nasal passages and lungs. But hopefully if I was fully vaccinated, life goes on as normal as the vaccine is protecting my lungs. As distinct from Covid just being in my nose and nowhere else (as I'm vaccinated)

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#2766346 25-Aug-2021 09:42

^ Very interesting headline and it could cause some significant issues down the line; i.e. vaccinated people are still capable of getting COVID-19 and spreading it without showing any issues. Be interesting to see how the world reacts to that.

sen8or

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#2766349 25-Aug-2021 09:56

I always thought the media coverage stated that even fully vaccinated people can get infected and can get sick, but that the symptoms / repercussions of being sick when vaccinated were significantly reduced.

A "living with it" strategy would need significant data on the hospitalisation and/or mortality rates of vaccinated vs non vaccinated and even then, I'm still not convinced that we would live with it.

Oblivian

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#2766350 25-Aug-2021 09:58

Speaking of headlines. The main page is a right bundle of joy this morning. No wonder people get anxious or riled up...

24hr wait to get to jetpark due the growing cases

'Surge day' for case numbers

MORE supermarkets added

People in isolation unable to get food

Saline vs Vaccine investigation

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