Handle9:

Long-term lockdowns can't be sustained, the social license ends. It's just too difficult.

In that regard NZ is much the same as everywhere else.

Yes - but we were able to buy time - which was very successful strategy made possible due to our ability to sustain near elimination, helped by relative geographic isolation, and generally wide acceptance that it was the best option.

Delta probably means we won't be able to transition out as simply and smoothly as hoped - or with a beginning at a point in time we choose. 

afe66: See above

With 90% total population vaccinated and open boarder with 10 actives cases per day entering country.

Over 2 years 11,000 hospitisations cases and 1030 deaths estimated...

afe66: See above

With 90% total population vaccinated and open boarder with 10 actives cases per day entering country.

Over 2 years 11,000 hospitisations cases and 1030 deaths estimated...

Around 500 deaths per year from Influenza in New Zealand, so that over 2 years looks ok imo

JPNZ:

afe66: See above

With 90% total population vaccinated and open boarder with 10 actives cases per day entering country.

Over 2 years 11,000 hospitisations cases and 1030 deaths estimated...

 

Around 500 deaths per year from Influenza in New Zealand, so that over 2 years looks ok imo

Handle9:

afe66: See above

With 90% total population vaccinated and open boarder with 10 actives cases per day entering country.

Over 2 years 11,000 hospitisations cases and 1030 deaths estimated...

Which is similar to influenza in a normal year. It's not good but it doesn't destroy the health system.

That's full population.. including 0-11s so we would not likely see approvals for that ( and then the implementation) until mid 2022 at the earliest

If 0-11s aren't approved, then your death rate triples to over 3K

"Where 0–11 year olds are not vaccinated and total population uptake is 80% (the maximum uptake is 84•9% and HIT is not achieved) there is an estimated 37,700 total hospitalisations (peak 2,980 active and 343 new daily cases in hospitals), and 3,120 total deaths. "

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(21)00165-6/fulltext

The question is can you find ways of detecting  or reducing the 10 live cases arriving every day.... either with departure and arrival testing... or vaccination or immunity in source countries..

afe66: It's in addition to influenza and many will die in icu units.

Many hospitals currently have issues with icu bed shortages and this will create significantly more pressure.

No icu beds mean no elective cardiac surgery increased risk in frail people needing operations, people who crash their cars. Increased mortality to those groups who currently survive because we gave icu units.

The answer of course is to increase the number of icu beds which we need to be honest will cost and must fund for this.

Level 4 costs the country $290 million dollars a day. I'm pretty sure funding some ICU beds would be a LOT cheaper and easier.

Handle9:

Technofreak:

 

I read we are heading towards having a Covid passport. 

 

 

 

NZ To Have Vaccine Passport by Christmas

 

 

 

Are we going to develop our own or adopt something like Common Pass? Seems to me we'd be better off with a universal app rather than a New Zealand centric one.

 

Vaccine passports are a hot mess. They really aren't much good for international travel yet. It's going to take a while to shakeout.

In the interim each country is doing its own thig, backed into their vaccination databases.

From stuff.co.nz today

The Ministry of Health has confirmed vaccine passports will be available for Kiwis later this year.

“It will contain a QR code, and a secure digital signature, or “seal”. Certificates will be able to be printed off in hard copy or be stored and viewed on a smartphone,” said Astrid Koornneef, Group Manager Operations for the COVID-19 vaccination programme.

Koornneef said the Ministry of Health was designing the digital vaccination certificate to be compatible with emerging international standards, so it can be recognised by as many countries as possible."

JPNZ:

 

Level 4 costs the country $290 million dollars a day. I'm pretty sure funding some ICU beds would be a LOT cheaper and easier.

 

So all travellers coming into NZ (some of who will bring Covid) need to fund this. It needs to be 'user pays' collected up front by the Airlines as part of the ticket cost.

afe66: The answer of course is to increase the number of icu beds which we need to be honest will cost and must fund for this.

frankv:

 

I think you're overestimating the anti-lockdown sentiment in NZ. I believe that most Kiwis are very happy with the Government's handling of covid, and accept that lockdowns are a necessary evil. The alternative is a flood of sick people into our hospitals, potentially a very large death toll, and extended L2.9 controls to limit the consequences of the pandemic to "not a complete disaster", as per NSW, UK, and the rest.

 

There's a very vocal minority who catastrophize the lockdowns and feed and are fed by the "freedom warriors" and anti-vaxxers and the alt.right and religious nutters. If we're only 80% vaccinated in 2022 and therefore need another lockdown, it'll be *because* of those people. They'll be the author of their own, and our, misfortune. Don't be one of those people.

 

Your two statements only cover the two extremes. There's the anti-vax nutters at one end and the extremely compliant at the other. You're missing the vast majority of the NZ population of which I and many others fall into.

I have been extremely complimentary of how the NZ government and the people of NZ have come together to respond to COVID-19. I have accepted that hard and early lockdowns have been necessary in order to contain and manage this pandemic and I have been compliant with every health order issued. I had my fist vaccine shot last week and wait patiently to received my second in 5 weeks time. However, I don't want to live like this forever. I want to go to bars, cafes, restaurants and meet up with friends and enjoy life like I used to. I want to be able to travel from NZ and for people to be able to travel to NZ to explore this wonderful country. I want to be able to stand in a crowd of 40,000 other Rugby fans at Eden Park and cheer on my team again. 

If lockdowns are still part of our 2022 strategy then I can assure you, the vocal minority won't be much of a minority for long.

JPNZ:

 

Koornneef said the Ministry of Health was designing the digital vaccination certificate to be compatible with emerging international standards, so it can be recognised by as many countries as possible."

 

That the MOH is involved in designing this doesn't bode well IMO.

JPNZ:

 

Level 4 costs the country $290 million dollars a day. I'm pretty sure funding some ICU beds would be a LOT cheaper and easier.

 

If that were the only cost, you would be right. ICU beds cost up to $10,000/day. But for every ICU bed, you need about 20 hospital beds at $3,000/day, because only 5% of hospitalised cases go to ICU. So each covid ICU bed actually costs $70,000 every single day whether they're occupied or not, so $25M/year. Round numbers, if we lockdown for less than a month of the year, ($8.7B), we could spend that on 341 ICU beds (and 6,800 hospital beds).

But you're assuming that we can actually control covid so that only 341 people at a time need ICU. Because *every* time you exceed 341, someone dies. And half of the covid patients who go to ICU die anyway. What's the economic value of a life?

And then there's the nightmare scenario where your extra 6,800 hospital aren't enough, at which point you have a 10% death rate. We came perilously close to that back in March/April 2020. New York and northern Italy and Spain and India have all been there.

Then there's the cost of people not being at work because they're sick, or their kids are sick.

Then there's long covid, the ongoing health costs for those who survive.

Remember, these are *extra* hospital resources, because hospitals have been cutting and paring for decades to give the level of health care we get today.

And, finally, where are you going to get the doctors and nurses to staff your new hospital wards?

Handle9:

Fred99:

 

IMO there's also going to be a change in perception of risk by the fully vaccinated - which is going to create even more resistance to containment by lockdown.  This just my perception, I feel a bit the same way myself and I'll be less enthusiastic about lockdowns in future.  Compliance will drop, lockdowns will fail.

 

 

 

 

 

Long-term lockdowns can't be sustained, the social license ends. It's just too difficult.

In that regard NZ is much the same as everywhere else.

NZ is really in a 'wait and see' stage, to see how vaccines work out, and how the virus progresses. We should have been building up our ICU and hospital system over these last 18 months because with just a relative small number of cases, Auckland hospitals are stretched.  The only reason we have had this lockdown is because it leaked through MIQ. Using makeshift quarantine facilities in the form of hotels with ventilation systems not designed for this, is a major problem.