2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2775776 10-Sep-2021 08:41

mattwnz:

The only reason we have had this lockdown is because it leaked through MIQ.

....

It may have triggered it and may therefore be one of the reasons. Another reason we had to lock down was because of our low vaccination percentage. (Apparently this wasn't deemed urgent, may be we should have gone 'hard and early' on that.)

After I was born, I didn't talk to my parents for two years.

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Fred99

13684 posts

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#2775779 10-Sep-2021 08:49

floydbloke:

mattwnz:

The only reason we have had this lockdown is because it leaked through MIQ.

....

It may have triggered it and may therefore be one of the reasons. Another reason we had to lock down was because of our low vaccination percentage. (Apparently this wasn't deemed urgent, may be we should have gone 'hard and early' on that.)

Vaccines were ordered / delivery schedule agreed before delta, we'd contained outbreaks and had been covid free, there was an international shortage of vaccine (and still is) and we had no morally defensible case to demand priority.

We could not have gone "hard and early".

GV27

5418 posts

Uber Geek

#2775782 10-Sep-2021 08:59

Fred99:

Vaccines were ordered / delivery schedule agreed before delta, we'd contained outbreaks and had been covid free, there was an international shortage of vaccine (and still is) and we had no morally defensible case to demand priority.

We could not have gone "hard and early".

Didn't stop us using terms like 'front of the queue', did it?

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2775796 10-Sep-2021 09:35

GV27:

Fred99:

Vaccines were ordered / delivery schedule agreed before delta, we'd contained outbreaks and had been covid free, there was an international shortage of vaccine (and still is) and we had no morally defensible case to demand priority.

We could not have gone "hard and early".

Didn't stop us using terms like 'front of the queue', did it?

When Hipkins said that (November 2020), there was no vaccine and the global pandemic was nowhere near levels a few months later,

There was a plan to roll out priority doses when vaccines were available. Pfizer delivered.

So many people in this thread turning it into "Whale Oil V2" or "Stuff Comments" reposting partisan "talking points" they read somewhere - but too damned lazy to investigate facts - or to see things in context.

freitasm

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Geekzone

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#2775809 10-Sep-2021 09:42

Driver licences, WoF, CoF, registrations extended until 30 November 2021 (geekzone.co.nz) (separate thread)

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frankv

5581 posts

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#2775812 10-Sep-2021 09:47

JPNZ:

Level 4 costs the country $290 million dollars a day. I'm pretty sure funding some ICU beds would be a LOT cheaper and easier.

Plugging the numbers from NSW & average stay lengths into my previous calculations: 1,400+ new cases per day, 1,136 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, 194 people in intensive care, 78 of whom require ventilation. https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/20210908_00.aspx

There are various numbers for average covid hospital stay, but I'll arbitrarily use https://academic.oup.com/intqhc/article/33/1/mzab050/6178233 which says 10.7 days for survivors, 13.7 for non-survivors. For simplicity, round down to 10 and assume the non-survivors spend the last 3 days in ICU, so they also take 10 bed-nights in the ordinary ward.

ICU beds cost up to $10,000/day. But 17% of covid hospitalisations are in ICU, so for every ICU bed you need about 6 hospital beds at $3,000/day. So each covid ICU bed actually costs $28,000 every single day whether they're occupied or not, so $10.2M/year. If we lockdown for less than 30 days per year, ($8.7B), we could spend that on 851 ICU beds (and 5,107 hospital beds).

If we were the same per capita as NSW, it would be 875 new cases per day. If 10% need hospitalisation, that's 88 new admissions per day, each staying 10 nights in ordinary hospital, and 15 spending 3 nights each in ICU. So we would need 45 ICU beds and 880 hospital beds.

But NSW has L3.5 lockdown and travel restrictions, and they haven't peaked yet. If we were to let things deteriorate to the state that India did in June (400K new cases per day/pop 1.3B, so per capita equivalent to 1400 new cases per day in NZ), we would need about 1400 hospital beds and 200 ICU beds. But of course India then locked down.

So I think the assumption that it's either more ICU beds or a lockdown is wrong. It's either L4 lockdowns, or 200 more ICU beds and L3.5 lockdowns.

For reference, NZ has about 12,000 hospital beds and 230 ICU beds.

mkissin

303 posts

Ultimate Geek

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#2775819 10-Sep-2021 09:58

And of course you can't just wish those beds into existance. It would take years to build the infrastructure they need and train the staff to work them.

That's not to say we shouldn't increase our ICU bed numbers and health staff. We almost certainly should. But it's not a magic bullet to allow opening up and just deal with the resulting illnesses.

GV27

5418 posts

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#2775878 10-Sep-2021 10:22

freitasm:

Driver licences, WoF, CoF, registrations extended until 30 November 2021 (geekzone.co.nz) (separate thread)

Extremely sensible tbh, otherwise you end up with a huge logjam of work and regos in a compressed period of time with a flow on effect that lasts for years.

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2775880 10-Sep-2021 10:23

frankv:

So I think the assumption that it's either more ICU beds or a lockdown is wrong. It's either L4 lockdowns, or 200 more ICU beds and L3.5 lockdowns.

Or get "everybody" vaccinated.

The chart I posted from NYT above - from states with around 75% of over 18YO's fully vaccinated - would extrapolate to about 250 hospital admissions per day in NZ. That is far too many.

On2or3wheels

184 posts

Master Geek

#2775900 10-Sep-2021 11:06

I don't think I've seen any figures on the total cost to vaccinate the country. I'm talking everything from vaccine cost to staffing, venue set-up, transport & everything else.

And we're potentially going to have to run this continually year round. Unless taxes rise something has to give.

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2775902 10-Sep-2021 11:10

On2or3wheels:

I don't think I've seen any figures on the total cost to vaccinate the country. I'm talking everything from vaccine cost to staffing, venue set-up, transport & everything else.

And we're potentially going to have to run this continually year round. Unless taxes rise something has to give.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/442878/covid-19-vaccination-programme-to-cost-nz-1-point-4-billion

It's "relatively" peanuts. (ie equivalent to the cost of one week L4 lockdown).

Oblivian

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#2775903 10-Sep-2021 11:13

On2or3wheels:

I don't think I've seen any figures on the total cost to vaccinate the country. I'm talking everything from vaccine cost to staffing, venue set-up, transport & everything else.

And we're potentially going to have to run this continually year round. Unless taxes rise something has to give.

Early private pharmacy clinics guy said it was about $35 per jab pp to them. Even at that as a base its 147M so far.

Their own clinics, would be a case of find out after next years budget spending breakdown I guess.

But like the pfizer deal, the actual cost of doses and freezers/transport etc appears to be quite sensitive.

On2or3wheels

184 posts

Master Geek

#2775915 10-Sep-2021 11:30

Fred99:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/442878/covid-19-vaccination-programme-to-cost-nz-1-point-4-billion

It's "relatively" peanuts. (ie equivalent to the cost of one week L4 lockdown).

Thanks Fred. If it was a one off it wouldn't be too bad but the ongoing cost is going to hurt. Obviously it will come down a bit for boosters.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2775921 10-Sep-2021 11:42

On2or3wheels:

Fred99:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/442878/covid-19-vaccination-programme-to-cost-nz-1-point-4-billion

It's "relatively" peanuts. (ie equivalent to the cost of one week L4 lockdown).

Thanks Fred. If it was a one off it wouldn't be too bad but the ongoing cost is going to hurt. Obviously it will come down a bit for boosters.

It wouldn't surprise me if the cost for boosters targeting delta goes up - a lot - at least in the short/medium term.

There was lot of public money poured into initial covid vaccine development - effectively subsidising it - and for most of us, a "booster" at this point in time would be a luxury while half the people we share the planet with can't get anything.

elpenguino

2908 posts

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#2775935 10-Sep-2021 12:11

frankv:

There are various numbers for average covid hospital stay, but I'll arbitrarily use https://academic.oup.com/intqhc/article/33/1/mzab050/6178233 which says 10.7 days for survivors, 13.7 for non-survivors. For simplicity, round down to 10 and assume the non-survivors spend the last 3 days in ICU, so they also take 10 bed-nights in the ordinary ward.

ICU beds cost up to $10,000/day. But 17% of covid hospitalisations are in ICU, so for every ICU bed you need about 6 hospital beds at $3,000/day. So each covid ICU bed actually costs $28,000 every single day whether they're occupied or not, so $10.2M/year. If we lockdown for less than 30 days per year, ($8.7B), we could spend that on 851 ICU beds (and 5,107 hospital beds).

Damn you with your facts and logic :-)

One of the arguments against lockdown was that it would negatively affect the economy but , as you've pointed out, a lot of extra money would need to be funnelled into the health system to stop too many bodies piling up in the streets.

Of course, some of those bodies would be truck drivers, managers and everyone else so businesses would be negatively affected by their own shutdowns and the shutdowns of their suppliers and customers anyway.

Without lockdown, a lot of people would have gone into voluntary isolation and reduced socialising to avoid infection so there would be wide spread down turn in hospo and other businesses regardless.

Lockdown may not be the best response for every country but it worked for NZ in 2020 and looks likely to be the same for 2021, fingers crossed.

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

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