2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2776577 11-Sep-2021 21:16

Fred99:

sbiddle:

I read something a couple of months back that did briefly question whether Pfizer had simply been too conservative on their dosage levels. While I haven't read anything lately it could be a key thing going forward, and necessitating a 3rd Pfizer dose for everybody who has had Pfizer.

As one of only a handful of countries that are 100% Pfizer, the shortcomings of the vaccine could be of serious concern for us and really do show the shortcomings of adopting the strategy we did.

They'd have taken into account ability to produce vaccine in quantity when setting dose levels in the trials. Same as the interval between doses, VE fairly well shown to improve with a longer interval, but you can't test everything is a stage III trial.

Moderna haven't been able to deliver many doses outside the US. So we'd have been S.O.L.

The "shortcomings" are relative. Most of the world who are lucky enough to be vaccinated aren't getting (the better) mRNA vaccines at all.

Is Pfizer at 9-12-15 months better than AZ? Only time will tell, but some tentative data has been showing for months that for elderly that AZ could well be a far better vaccine, and for the rest of is that could well end up being the case as well if we don't have boosters.

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#2776578 11-Sep-2021 21:16

Fred99:

sbiddle:

A couple of quite interesting things I read and watched today -

First up the weekly CDC report which has some pretty revealing data showing Pfizer vs Moderns vs Janssen performance.

That's impressive.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e2.htm?s_cid=mm7037e2_w#T1_down

The Moderna vaccine dose is 100ug mRNA vs 30ug for Pfizer.

(IIRC in Israel they accidentally dosed patients with undiluted Pfizer vaccine @0.3ml = 4x normal dose, with no observed ill effects)

Really interesting data.

This is the first time I have become aware of data showing modern to be more effective than Pfizer. Pfizer being 80% effective at preventing hospitalization is disappointing when you compere to the 95% of moderna...

Of course there could be other factors in the mix, such as the change in vaccine types delivered over time meaning one brand is fresher than the others in peoples systems, or different peoples ages / locations etc.

80% is kinda worrying in terms of vaccinating our way out of this. Even if we vaccinated 100% of our population (unrealistic as no approvals for kids), would only drop our hospitalization rate from approx 5% to approx 1%. If we had a Scotland like (similar population to NZ) 7,000 cases a day, we would need to deal with 70 hospital admissions a day.... If we had an average stay of 3 weeks, this would require 1470 beds, more than 10% of our total hospital capacity (cira 13,300 beds). Of course the actual picture would be worse, as we will do well to get past 75% fully vaccinated...

Seems increasingly likely boosting my be needed. And it may be that we can't wait until say March 2022 when out Novavax is ready, so need to press ahead with 3rd doses of pfizer (5 - 8 months after the 2nd) for those that got early vaccines.

Despite today's spike in case numbers, the trend still seems to be downwards, so elimination still seems worth fighting for. But it from the unlinked case's is clear that this outbreak is going to have a very long tail, and the risk of failing to eliminate it remains. And sadly anything less then level 4 isn't going to get the job done (and further loosening of level 4 such as re-opening building supply factories seems risky)

On the good news front, Pfizer trial for kids 5 - 11 must have got to a point where they are comfortable seeking approval for that age band. The process through Medsafe and cabinet can be much faster than it was for the 12-15 age group.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-pfizer-vaccine-to-seek-approval-for-use-on-children/MQ4TJEAEYKZA45GYKERTMNGLCA/

Another good thing is that the timing of our delta outbreak has such that we are now in spring, Warmer and windy weather based on other respiratory infections should slow the spread.

And a final good thing is that we are continuing to hit it out of the park with our vaccine roll out. 64,000 doses yesterday. Not the 90k/day volumes we were seeing a couple of weeks back, but impressive regardless. 2,803,000 first doses given, or about 55% of the total population with a first dose. With the cira 30% covid-19 protection kicking in around two weeks after the first dose, every day that passes the R0 number of the vaccine should slightly drop...

sbiddle

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#2776583 11-Sep-2021 21:29

Scott3:

Fred99:

sbiddle:

A couple of quite interesting things I read and watched today -

First up the weekly CDC report which has some pretty revealing data showing Pfizer vs Moderns vs Janssen performance.

That's impressive.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e2.htm?s_cid=mm7037e2_w#T1_down

The Moderna vaccine dose is 100ug mRNA vs 30ug for Pfizer.

(IIRC in Israel they accidentally dosed patients with undiluted Pfizer vaccine @0.3ml = 4x normal dose, with no observed ill effects)

Really interesting data.

This is the first time I have become aware of data showing modern to be more effective than Pfizer. Pfizer being 80% effective at preventing hospitalization is disappointing when you compere to the 95% of moderna...

Of course there could be other factors in the mix, such as the change in vaccine types delivered over time meaning one brand is fresher than the others in peoples systems, or different peoples ages / locations etc.

There are lots of variables and one shouldn't draw definitive conclusions but it's pretty clear now that despite still being an effective vaccine that does a very good job of preventing against death and serious health effects, that over time the effectiveness is becoming a major issue. Yes T and B cell responses are still effective and kicking in, but compared to other vaccines the number of people being infected and then being infectious really is the issue.

Data from the US about Pfizer boosters which we should see in the next week or so is really going to be interesting. I really do hope NZ is ready to immediately start giving boosters to those over 6 months (which in effect is most of our border workers) is this is recommended by the FDA and CDC.

Pfizer in kids is still risky business, especially with the Pfizer myocarditis issue which is a very real problem in boys. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1

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#2776585 11-Sep-2021 21:44

sbiddle:

Things really aren't looking good for Auckland. I feel that in the past week the media and those fronting the 1pm briefings have really gave a lot of false hopes to people up there.

Aucklanders really do need preparing themselves for the fact this could easily be another 3-4 weeks minimum at L4 and even then it may be that they simply can't return to zero cases. ACT is all the proof you need that even with a population that wants to do the right thing, that Delta is a whole new game and that at the end of the day lockdowns may well be nothing but a measure to help control case numbers.

...

Agreed. I'm in the 'thick of it' being here in Auckland. My general feeling (and apologies if this is something that should be in the political forum - its an observation not a political view) based on current/past presentations is that they (ministers/MoH) probably have an realistic number but are caught between a rock and a hard place. On one hand - they could come out with a more realistic lockdown duration but risk Aucklanders bucking at the prospect of a long lockdown, or try and win compliance to lockdown rules by only incrementing it one or two weeks at a time.

As this lockdown rolls on, more and more Auckland businesses (or neighborhood enterprises) are opening up by effectively becoming an online-delivery platform. Unsure if these comply with the level four rules or not, but amazing how much business they can do with a bank account, Wechat and a prepaid mobile.

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#2776590 11-Sep-2021 22:13

I can't help but think there is still some very active inter mingling family clusters going on. There's no way these people should be still fronting up this late postive with no known link or apparent LoI.

Either there is (and they are lying or very forgetful) or it's still rampant somewhere and people aren't doing all they can like level 4 is meant to, to stop it spreading.

People are the host. People are the problem (despite words that the virus is the problem). People are the solution.

Fred99

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#2776591 11-Sep-2021 23:09

sbiddle:

Pfizer in kids is still risky business, especially with the Pfizer myocarditis issue which is a very real problem in boys. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1

That's a non peer-reviewed pre-print paper. There are some valid criticisms of methodology and conclusions in the comments - which you should have read before hitting the keyboard.

You've extended that by posting your own harmful anti-vax hysteria as highlighted.

I suggest you delete your dumb post - then also feel free to then delete this post of mine.

zenourn

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#2776593 12-Sep-2021 00:15

Fred99:

sbiddle:

Pfizer in kids is still risky business, especially with the Pfizer myocarditis issue which is a very real problem in boys. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1

That's a non peer-reviewed pre-print paper. There are some valid criticisms of methodology and conclusions in the comments - which you should have read before hitting the keyboard.

You've extended that by posting your own harmful anti-vax hysteria as highlighted.

I suggest you delete your dumb post - then also feel free to then delete this post of mine.

I don't see this strictly as anti-vax hysteria, although I would have said "Pfizer in male children potentially has slightly higher adverse reactions, further research is required to confirm". I'm pro vaccine (family is completely vaccinated) but we still need to monitor efficacy and safety. The pre-print is some potentially interesting analysis that scientists have done and they are putting it out there for open review. It has some flaws, but there is also potentially some signal in there - they effectively have an internal control by being able to compare between males and females, and by showing that the rate is ~10x in males compared to females indicates that there might be something going on. The benefits still likely hugely favour vaccinating than not, but we need to make sure we keep checks in place.

In November I'll be attending the NZ annual pharmacoepidemiology symposium (https://www.otago.ac.nz/pharmacoepidemiology/news/symposium/index.html) and this year there is a huge focus on the vaccine safety data. By then we should have good data for adverse events in our 12-19 year olds and it will be interesting what the rates are.

empacher48

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#2776658 12-Sep-2021 07:38

Fred99:
sbiddle:

Pfizer in kids is still risky business, especially with the Pfizer myocarditis issue which is a very real problem in boys. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.30.21262866v1

That's a non peer-reviewed pre-print paper. There are some valid criticisms of methodology and conclusions in the comments - which you should have read before hitting the keyboard.

You've extended that by posting your own harmful anti-vax hysteria as highlighted.

I suggest you delete your dumb post - then also feel free to then delete this post of mine.

I also find it interesting that this study is already being discredited by paediatricians along the same way as the MMR/Autism study was.

There are warnings on social media from well known paediatricians here in NZ who are already warning people not to pay attention to this study.

Fred99

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#2776660 12-Sep-2021 08:12

zenourn:

I don't see this strictly as anti-vax hysteria,

Saying Pfizer in kids is still risky business in the midst of a national vaccine rollout using the approved Pfizer vaccine is pure "anti-vax hysteria". Maybe there's a misperception that antivaxxers are mainly believers in microchips / 5g. IMO most seem to have been taken in by and then contribute to an ongoing stream of FUD based on misinterpretation of data, data-dredging etc. (ie not psychotic delusions about microchips).

The writers of that paper collected data using dubious methodology, then use the data to make unreasonable comparisons of relative risk. I find it very hard to believe that wasn't done deliberately.

Fred99

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#2776662 12-Sep-2021 08:21

empacher48:

I also find it interesting that this study is already being discredited by paediatricians along the same way as the MMR/Autism study was.

There are warnings on social media from well known paediatricians here in NZ who are already warning people not to pay attention to this study.

Problem is that the damage is probably already done. A huge number of people still "believe" the MMR/Autism myth.

I think most people who don't have a background in science would read that paper and conclude that it's evidence that the risk to boys from the vaccine greatly exceeded the possible benefit. - as is suggested by the person who posted the link in this thread - innocently or maliciously.

And that's just wrong.

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#2776663 12-Sep-2021 08:30

Professor says based on data one dose is fine, 2 dose is the where the rate of myocarditis in young boys seem to be higher than rate of hospitalization from covid, based on available data.

All refer to Pfizer of course

All from Guardian of course, and people are going to read it whether we dissect this here or not

and finally, with more time will give more data as more data is sought, so watch this space

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/10/boys-more-at-risk-from-pfizer-jab-side-effect-than-covid-suggests-study

Fred99

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#2776666 12-Sep-2021 08:41

Batman:

All from Guardian of course, and people are going to read it whether we dissect this here or not

The headline:

Boys more at risk from Pfizer jab side-effect than Covid, suggests study

If you think that means they're more at risk from the jab than from when they catch covid , then that's apparently what The Guardian want you to believe. It's pure BS.

vexxxboy

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#2776701 12-Sep-2021 09:31

Oblivian:

I can't help but think there is still some very active inter mingling family clusters going on. There's no way these people should be still fronting up this late postive with no known link or apparent LoI.

Either there is (and they are lying or very forgetful) or it's still rampant somewhere and people aren't doing all they can like level 4 is meant to, to stop it spreading.

People are the host. People are the problem (despite words that the virus is the problem). People are the solution.

the info is the person at Middlemore was a gang member and he wasnt telling the police anything . I doubt very much that the gangs have shut down their drug operations and are still selling and delivering around Auckland and i doubt very much they are telling authorities where they have been. you can see the problem.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

DS248

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#2776703 12-Sep-2021 09:37

Scott3:

COVID-19 exposure events at Middlemore Hospital

Media release
11 September 2021

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/covid-19-exposure-events-middlemore-hospital

Yes, a bit disconcerting. I wonder how deeply they quiz these patients about LoI's; eg. whether they establish that the patients a fully aware of all LoI's

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300405115/covid19-three-more-people-test-positive-after-visiting-middlemore-hospital

sbiddle

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#2776709 12-Sep-2021 09:58

Fred99:

empacher48:

I also find it interesting that this study is already being discredited by paediatricians along the same way as the MMR/Autism study was.

There are warnings on social media from well known paediatricians here in NZ who are already warning people not to pay attention to this study.

Problem is that the damage is probably already done. A huge number of people still "believe" the MMR/Autism myth.

I think most people who don't have a background in science would read that paper and conclude that it's evidence that the risk to boys from the vaccine greatly exceeded the possible benefit. - as is suggested by the person who posted the link in this thread - innocently or maliciously.

And that's just wrong.

As somebody who still spends probably 10-15 hours every week reading research papers on Covid I have also read plenty of criticisms of the paper. The simple reality however is that are plenty of people in this world who are way smarter than both you and me who are still assessing the risks of myocarditis and pericarditis with mRNA vaccines, which is why there are plenty of countries who are not yet willing to vaccinate those under 16, or if they are vaccinating it may only be high risk individuals.

I assume you're inferring that it was me who suggested that "evidence that the risk to boys from the vaccine greatly exceeded the possible benefit" which is certainly something I never said in my post that referenced the paper. To suggest that the risks of myocarditis and pericarditis don't exist is a very narrow minded view for anybody to be having at this point in time.

Just because you don't agree with something doesn't mean that open informed debate isn't allowed.

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