2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2780531 19-Sep-2021 08:53

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

Auckland can't go to level 3 imo, it just doesn't make any sense, until it is actually properly ringfenced. They have dropped too early before when they thought it was contained, only to have new cases popping up, and it resulted in going back up for an extra week, costing more money.

Agree. They cant mop the last of it up, cases seem to have stabilised, not reduced. Im not referring to 11 then 20, as numbers will fluctuate as the volume is small, but daily there are cases still. Infectious in the community still, so that breeds the next weeks and a half's cases. The Govt has wrongly hinted of Level 3, so thats the expectation. Then cases will probably creep up.

Nailed it. But I don't believe cases will just creep up. Our level 3 is more towards an Aussie lockdown and look what is happening in NSW and Vic.

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#2780532 19-Sep-2021 08:54

is there any data showing 3rd dose is useful? afaik this is just a hypothesis until there is actual data.

though somebody has to do it to get the data.

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#2780533 19-Sep-2021 08:54

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

Auckland can't go to level 3 imo, it just doesn't make any sense, until it is actually properly ringfenced. They have dropped too early before when they thought it was contained, only to have new cases popping up, and it resulted in going back up for an extra week, costing more money.

Agree. They cant mop the last of it up, cases seem to have stabilised, not reduced. Im not referring to 11 then 20, as numbers will fluctuate as the volume is small, but daily there are cases still. Infectious in the community still, so that breeds the next weeks and a half's cases. The Govt has wrongly hinted of Level 3, so thats the expectation. Then cases will probably creep up.

The PM standing up tomorrow and telling Auckland they're staying at L4 is going to be very difficult to do because it's literally going to be an admission of failure. Weeks ago we were told this was under control, and last week excitedly said that L3 was going to happen this week in principle.

While there are still unlinked mystery cases the only option now that we've doubled down on our elimination strategy is to follow what is happening in Australia which is going to be a much longer term lockdown for Auckland.

Vaccination is only out way out if people are actually going to be vaccinated. It's pretty clear now we're hitting a plateau - I was even in Whakatana yesterday and the big popup vaccination centre didn't have a single person there. Parked nearby and didn't observe a single person going it, looked online and there was availability of every single timeslot for today.

I personally believe we have a fundamental problem now with a mindset in a chunk of the population that we beat Covid before, we're going to beat it again, and that there is no need to be vaccinated if there is no Covid in NZ.

The government nor MoH don't really want to start scaring people and warning about endemic Covid (but the messaging is slowly starting to move that way) and until we start having the discussion about what life is going to be like for the next 2-3years and making people realise the risks we are going to face some struggles.

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#2780538 19-Sep-2021 09:08

sbiddle:

The PM standing up tomorrow and telling Auckland they're staying at L4 is going to be very difficult to do because it's literally going to be an admission of failure. Weeks ago we were told this was under control, and last week excitedly said that L3 was going to happen this week in principle.

While there are still unlinked mystery cases the only option now that we've doubled down on our elimination strategy is to follow what is happening in Australia which is going to be a much longer term lockdown for Auckland.

Vaccination is only out way out if people are actually going to be vaccinated. It's pretty clear now we're hitting a plateau - I was even in Whakatana yesterday and the big popup vaccination centre didn't have a single person there. Parked nearby and didn't observe a single person going it, looked online and there was availability of every single timeslot for today.

I personally believe we have a fundamental problem now with a mindset in a chunk of the population that we beat Covid before, we're going to beat it again, and that there is no need to be vaccinated if there is no Covid in NZ.

The government nor MoH don't really want to start scaring people and warning about endemic Covid (but the messaging is slowly starting to move that way) and until we start having the discussion about what life is going to be like for the next 2-3years and making people realise the risks we are going to face some struggles.

Failure yes, but its not the Govt or MoH's fault, its the few non compliant Aucklanders who have failed the other Aucklanders. The we beat Covid doesnt wash. When lockdowns happen, we do it. Im in SI, we had L4, then L3 then L2, there is no Covid here, but we still do it, as we may get it from MIQ or AKL, it is what it is.

But like everywhere else its more a case of a few beers with mates is more important than the very low chance (even in Auckland) of being infected. The human brain sees that as a high price for low benefit. I dont change my oil once per week as its a high cost for low benefit, classic human behaviour.

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#2780540 19-Sep-2021 09:11

Batman:

is there any data showing 3rd dose is useful? afaik this is just a hypothesis until there is actual data.

The FDA seem to think so. If two doses is better than one dose, and two doses do wane over time, then a topup seems a likely solution. Its also been a topic for a while now. So I doubt its just a new idea someone thought up with little knowledge of the benefit.

Having said that, "The committee said there was insufficient evidence to recommend third shots for all adult recipients of the vaccine, as Pfizer had requested."

Begs the question if there is no evidence to vaccinate the masses with a third shot, why bother with the over 65's and those with health issues?

DS248

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#2780541 19-Sep-2021 09:13

Batman:

is there any data showing 3rd dose is useful? afaik this is just a hypothesis until there is actual data.

though somebody has to do it to get the data.

Yes, and very strongly so in Israeli data. Of course, how long that additional protection will last is an open question.

Sorry, do not have time to go into details or provide links at this stage.

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#2780543 19-Sep-2021 09:27

My mother, brother, uncle and cousins live in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The state population is roughly double the New Zealand population. The state is in the South and relatively rich compared to other regions, with a GDP half of New Zealand (so lower per capita). They have just passed 38,000 covid-related deaths.

Imagine a proportional number of deaths in New Zealand if we hadn't done anything.

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#2780545 19-Sep-2021 09:30

freitasm:

My mother, brother, uncle and cousins live in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The state population is roughly double the New Zealand population. The state is in the South and relatively rich compared to other regions. They have just passed 38,000 covid-related deaths.

Imagine a proportional number of deaths in New Zealand if we hadn't done anything.

That is very sad and scary. Being inconvenienced getting ones Latte pales into insignificance compared to that. I hope your family stays safe and well, very worrying times for you.

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#2780547 19-Sep-2021 09:43

freitasm:

My mother, brother, uncle and cousins live in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The state population is roughly double the New Zealand population. The state is in the South and relatively rich compared to other regions, with a GDP half of New Zealand (so lower per capita). They have just passed 38,000 covid-related deaths.

Imagine a proportional number of deaths in New Zealand if we hadn't done anything.

*** I really didn't want to post this as it's only hearsay, can't find anything official to verify this so I'm happy to delete if requested***

* don't want to scare monger as we live in a first world country*

i have relatives somewhere in Asia, and i hear stories that in order to stop the public health system from crashing, they have limits on public covid hospitalizations.

once a particular public hospital has taken their max max max quota of covid patients everybody else that shows up gets sent home regardless of condition.

the GPs (uncle of a distant relative is one) are then sent to their houses to certify their deaths.

On2or3wheels

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#2780548 19-Sep-2021 09:47

The media really need to start asking at the stand up's why the tail isn't clearing, as we're not being told where these infections are occurring. Do we have supermarket transmission, do we have families mixing illegally, are we ring fencing a large enough group of contacts. Is it taking too long to track contacts.

So many questions & the media just keep hammering on about so many stupid little technicalities trying to trap the government.

Fred99

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#2780555 19-Sep-2021 10:27

On2or3wheels:

The media really need to start asking at the stand up's why the tail isn't clearing, as we're not being told where these infections are occurring. Do we have supermarket transmission, do we have families mixing illegally, are we ring fencing a large enough group of contacts. Is it taking too long to track contacts.

So many questions & the media just keep hammering on about so many stupid little technicalities trying to trap the government.

It's circulating in a community often with large multigenerational family units, some with poor literacy skills and probably poor understanding and/or a general mistrust of how the health system works.

The message is supposed to be that if you're sick - then phone healthline, get tested and self-isolate until you get results. But now 7 (?) infected people randomly turning up at Middlemore hospital, some symptomatic with covid, some with other issues who by coincidence tested positive. Self isolating in a house with many people when there's compelling evidence that with Delta the whole household can be infected before the first person gets symptoms. Then in those households - plenty of essential workers who can't avoid contact with others.

Same or similar circumstances when outbreaks appeared in Melbourne and Sydney and reached communities in high-density housing areas. It's not that people deliberately defy containment measures or knowingly do anything wrong and avoidable. Getting the message through as to how transmission occurs and what you need to do is all good and well, but then the reality that even when the message does get through it's incredibly hard to avoid situations that allow transmission, be that common areas in multi-unit dwellings there, or just large households in detached houses here.

And the reason why authorities may be reluctant to fully disclose who those communities are can be seen on Facebook or "reader comments" or other forums where the the worst of all - a cancerous blight for mankind - proliferates. The result of that "blame" will make everything much worse, even hindering the challenge of trying to get this outbreak nailed.

On2or3wheels

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#2780557 19-Sep-2021 10:39

Fred99:

It's circulating in a community often with large multigenerational family units, some with poor literacy skills and probably poor understanding and/or a general mistrust of how the health system works.

The message is supposed to be that if you're sick - then phone healthline, get tested and self-isolate until you get results. But now 7 (?) infected people randomly turning up at Middlemore hospital, some symptomatic with covid, some with other issues who by coincidence tested positive. Self isolating in a house with many people when there's compelling evidence that with Delta the whole household can be infected before the first person gets symptoms. Then in those households - plenty of essential workers who can't avoid contact with others.

Same or similar circumstances when outbreaks appeared in Melbourne and Sydney and reached communities in high-density housing areas. It's not that people deliberately defy containment measures or knowingly do anything wrong and avoidable. Getting the message through as to how transmission occurs and what you need to do is all good and well, but then the reality that even when the message does get through it's incredibly hard to avoid situations that allow transmission, be that common areas in multi-unit dwellings there, or just large households in detached houses here.

I'm not sure that's a good enough excuse though. We're being told these are often known household contacts so ring-fence them better, send people in to support them with food etc so they don't need to go out & help them with the rules.

Of course these new cases could be in the Mongrel Mob they mentioned the other day.

Fred99

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#2780559 19-Sep-2021 10:53

DS248:

Batman:

is there any data showing 3rd dose is useful? afaik this is just a hypothesis until there is actual data.

though somebody has to do it to get the data.

Yes, and very strongly so in Israeli data. Of course, how long that additional protection will last is an open question.

Sorry, do not have time to go into details or provide links at this stage.

Israel jabbed fast and early with 21 day interval between doses normal.

And that's the critical thing for NZ, the earliest rollout in NZ was also 21 day interval, group 1 and 2, some "essential workers" where there's now a high risk if they become asymptomatic spreaders, and then the group 2 most vulnerable, either age of with other medical issues that reduce vaccine effectiveness anyway.

So watch next week for US FDA approval for a third jab for >65YO and people with health conditions, I expect NZ approval will follow quickly, and it needs to be rolled out commencing ASAP. Health workers and some essential workers possibly too, I think the NY Times article I linked mentioned that teachers could or would be included in a third jab rollout.

Fred99

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#2780560 19-Sep-2021 10:57

On2or3wheels:

I'm not sure that's a good enough excuse though. We're being told these are often known household contacts so ring-fence them better, send people in to support them with food etc so they don't need to go out & help them with the rules.

Of course these new cases could be in the Mongrel Mob they mentioned the other day.

I do. What possible difference should it make to how you or I behave WRT controlling the outbreak?

Seems to me to be no upside to making it a front page public issue - only downsides.

Scott3

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#2780567 19-Sep-2021 11:16

mattwnz:

Auckland can't go to level 3 imo, it just doesn't make any sense, until it is actually properly ringfenced. They have dropped too early before when they thought it was contained, only to have new cases popping up, and it resulted in going back up for an extra week, costing more money.

I would be a huge call. But materially the same call that the government made the in principal call to drop to level 3. Given from NSW, we know that level 3 is not harsh enough to eliminate delta, to be sure of elimination we need 1 - 2 weeks of zero cases with the potential of infecting people outside of their household. Back then it was fairly clear that we hadn't got a ring around it, so this week wasn't going to be the zero (exposure event) week. And right now it is pretty clear that next week isn't going to be either.

I have been a great supporter of NZ's zero covid in the community approach to date, but I think it is time we moved on from that strategy. The concerns about moving back up level's no longer apply in my mind. I don't think there would be social licence for that.

The way I see it:

We haven't been able to identify the leak location from the crown plaza guest, so haven't been able to plug that gap. Given the number of early locations of interest in the local vicinity, it seems probiably that somebody that frequents that area was infected. Perhaps airborne virus went out the extract system and drooped on the street below... Again we haven't plugged the leak
We are going to keep having leaks. Numbers a while back from aussie MIQ had the leak ratio per positive case at 1:200. Numbers of cases in MIQ seem to be multiple each day. 2 in the last report, 5 a couple of days back. If we average 3, and the 1:200 ratio holds, we will have a leak on average every 66 day there will be a next time.
I think social licence to use level 4 again is fast expiring:
- Auckland at least is getting pretty sick of level 4, lock down fatigue is setting in. With much of the population having had less than one dose of vaccine, fear is a less effective driver, compliance is waning. Any more lock-downs are going to need a lot more police effort, and a possiable re-rewrite of the rules for eaisier enforcement (i.e. no using cars to go to a place for exercise or other recreation)
- We have hit the point in our vaccination rollout where in major center's, those who have the mobility to get to a vaccination center can get a same day appointment fairly easy: https://vaxx.nz/ People saw the point of the early lock-down to wait for vaccinations now we have ample for everybody 12+
- People are watching life go on via social media from places like New York & London.
It is looking our level 4 is failing to get this outbreak under control in a reasonable time. Level 4 is super expensive economically. Little point in carrying that cost unless we are likely to succeed.
If we are going to "open up", it needs to be in summer, so we don't get slamed with the seasonal winter stuff at the same time. NSW took about 3 months to go from 29 daily cases, untill they crossed the 1000 mark (note they were at level 3 for much of that time, but we have a lot more vaccine than they did on the 26 June). 3 months from today puts us in mid December.
There is serious talk about adding self isolation etc. This will make our border defenses weaker, and increase the rate of spread.

In summary, unless we stop returning kiwi's, we are going to keep getting outbreak's, We can't keep doing lockdown's for ever, so it is a question of timing. I think the timing is good now. 60% of total population vaccinated, and if we do level 3, we will have 3 months to finish off the vaccine program before we hit 1000+ daily cases (Pessimistic, based on a less vaccinated NSW).

Of course the above is a massive call. We will have all the pain that NSW has gone through. Overloaded hospitals, several deaths a day etc (hopefully our vaccination rates will drag this down somewhat).

And potentially spending multiple months at level 3 will suck.

And a further complicating issues is the rest of the country other than Auckland. Currently we have 2/3 of the country living at level 2. Other than Hospo & events this means pretty normal life, and a pritty normal business output. Giving up in Auckland will mean cases will grow and inevitable spread through the porous border, and impact on the rest of the country.

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