2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2781234 20-Sep-2021 16:51

JPNZ:

heavenlywild:

Update: Wait, Ardern just said zero tolerance does not equal zero cases. She never said that before even though she keeps on saying that's always been the case, what spin.

Just heard that... unbelievable

Don't know how you missed it. That's been the message since our first lockdown almost 18 months ago. Elimination does not equal no cases.

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mattwnz

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#2781235 20-Sep-2021 16:52

heavenlywild:

Level 3 for Auckland folks. Elimination is dead I am afraid.

I hope I am wrong but the case numbers will only go up from here.

They didn't say that, they instead said level 3 is still essentially level 4, where people still need to stay at home, and bubbles can't increase in size. If they had given up, then it would be level 2.5.

But IMO it almost ends the chance of the rest of NZ going back down to level 1 for a long time, as I expect the R0 value to increase. The PM IMO is saying some things that aren't that logical based on previous outbreaks, and are putting the level change on the DGs recommendation. They say that they are relying on contact tracing, but this was overwhelmed with Delta due to the high R0 value it has. To be consistent, I would expect them to go back up levels if case numbers start to pick up.

They keep saying there is no 'Widespread' or 'Large Scale' undetected community tranmission occurring. But there is some occurring. They would never have considered this drop without vaccination already being rolled out. But vaccinated people can still catch and spread covid.

JPNZ

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#2781236 20-Sep-2021 16:58

Fred99:

Don't know how you missed it. That's been the message since our first lockdown almost 18 months ago. Elimination does not equal no cases.

No answer to my question then? Will New Zealand eliminate Delta and for my clarification "elimination is complete removal" so no active cases within the NZ community excluding MIQ?

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evnafets

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#2781237 20-Sep-2021 17:00

heavenlywild:

Update: Wait, Ardern just said zero tolerance does not equal zero cases. She never said that before even though she keeps on saying that's always been the case, what spin.

Spin? I certainly remember this message from before. And here is some evidence to back it up. Ok it's "Stuff.co.nz" and it is from the first outbreak (2020) but it contains pretty much exactly the same message.
Zero tolerance does not equal zero cases.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/121291792/coronavirus-jacinda-ardern-says-there-is-a-good-chance-we-wont-stay-in-level-3-long

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#2781238 20-Sep-2021 17:04

JPNZ:

Fred99:

Don't know how you missed it. That's been the message since our first lockdown almost 18 months ago. Elimination does not equal no cases.

No answer to my question then? Will New Zealand eliminate Delta and for my clarification "elimination is complete removal" so no active cases within the NZ community excluding MIQ?

I think this was discussed about 600 pages ago.

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On2or3wheels

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#2781239 20-Sep-2021 17:04

JPNZ:

Will New Zealand eliminate Delta and for my clarification "elimination is complete removal" so no active cases within the NZ community excluding MIQ?

Well we would have eliminated it already if it hadn't been for a few rule breakers.

mattwnz

19389 posts

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#2781240 20-Sep-2021 17:05

Fred99:

JPNZ:

Just heard that... unbelievable

Don't know how you missed it. That's been the message since our first lockdown almost 18 months ago. Elimination does not equal no cases.

I think the PM may have said something like that before. Maybe the PM said that when Auckland previously moved down to level 3, but then had to move back up to level 4 again?

IMO the PM could have easily justified staying in level 4. But obviously they didn't want to backtrack on a previous level drop announcement, and all the flouting going on anyway. What doesn't make any sense is moving South Auckland where they said they CT is occurring (just not large scale or widespread), down to level 4. Yet another part of NZ is going up to a level 4. It makes sense for that area to go up to level 4, it makes no sense IMO to other areas to move down until there is no undetected CT occurring, because you only need one undetected case to start a new outbreak. I noticed there is a change in messaging around 'mystery cases', which is a term they now don't seem to be using.

They also seem to be pinning all hope on vaccination, but it is not a silver bullet, and based on Singapore, even with high vaccination rates, they are still getting 1000 cases a day and may need future lockdowns.

tdgeek

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#2781242 20-Sep-2021 17:09

JPNZ:

heavenlywild:

Update: Wait, Ardern just said zero tolerance does not equal zero cases. She never said that before even though she keeps on saying that's always been the case, what spin.

Just heard that... unbelievable

I recall that being quoted by the PM and/or Dr A an age ago

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#2781243 20-Sep-2021 17:14

heavenlywild:

Level 3 for Auckland folks. Elimination is dead I am afraid.

I hope I am wrong but the case numbers will only go up from here.

My post aged like milk.

Guess I was wrong. But elimination isn't dead. Level 4 has already done it's job and we have what how many unlinked cases in the wild now vs linked/already known?

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tdgeek

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#2781244 20-Sep-2021 17:14

mattwnz:

They keep saying there is no 'Widespread' or 'Large Scale' undetected community tranmission occurring. But there is some occurring. They would never have considered this drop without vaccination already being rolled out. But vaccinated people can still catch and spread covid.

I see what they mean. Its not running rampant with many cases from unknown source or new sources. Most of the cases are intermingling families. Yes, they can spread it in the wild, but supermarkets are a prime target, often used, crowded, but they dont spawn continual cases. From what I gather, its clearly contained, and not widespread in Auckland, as the cases are generally coming from the small number of suburbs that keep mingling. Those suburbs from what I read here are poorer suburbs, large families, some poverty.

tdgeek

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#2781246 20-Sep-2021 17:18

JPNZ:

Fred99:

Don't know how you missed it. That's been the message since our first lockdown almost 18 months ago. Elimination does not equal no cases.

No answer to my question then? Will New Zealand eliminate Delta and for my clarification "elimination is complete removal" so no active cases within the NZ community excluding MIQ?

Its happened before, every other time. If you took note of the intermingling families, thats the main source. Thats a whole lot different to new cases springing up all the time from newly discovered sources. Its been 5 weeks, add to that the 2 weeks or so (I think) pre lockdown when it was there and unknown. Its should be nicely and even spread across all of Auckland. It isnt. Now, what I just said isn't sensational, newsworthy, or out there. But I believe its the case.

tdgeek

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#2781247 20-Sep-2021 17:21

On2or3wheels:

JPNZ:

Will New Zealand eliminate Delta and for my clarification "elimination is complete removal" so no active cases within the NZ community excluding MIQ?

Well we would have eliminated it already if it hadn't been for a few rule breakers.

And inter family rule breakers, thats pertinent. Its still slack, but its not the usual flouters that we see on the news. Some cultures need support, are highly social, and maybe some poverty. No excuse, but thats far better than mobs openly flouting at Bondhi.

On2or3wheels

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Master Geek

#2781251 20-Sep-2021 17:33

tdgeek:

And inter family rule breakers, thats pertinent. Its still slack, but its not the usual flouters that we see on the news. Some cultures need support, are highly social, and maybe some poverty. No excuse, but thats far better than mobs openly flouting at Bondhi.

Yes, but I would like to know if the government has tried to address this in anyway with specific help for them. This has been happening for weeks now so they should have come up with a potential solution instead of it holding the whole country back.

mattwnz

19389 posts

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#2781253 20-Sep-2021 17:35

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

They keep saying there is no 'Widespread' or 'Large Scale' undetected community tranmission occurring. But there is some occurring. They would never have considered this drop without vaccination already being rolled out. But vaccinated people can still catch and spread covid.

I see what they mean. Its not running rampant with many cases from unknown source or new sources. Most of the cases are intermingling families. Yes, they can spread it in the wild, but supermarkets are a prime target, often used, crowded, but they dont spawn continual cases. From what I gather, its clearly contained, and not widespread in Auckland, as the cases are generally coming from the small number of suburbs that keep mingling. Those suburbs from what I read here are poorer suburbs, large families, some poverty.

Did I hear the PM say that there had been no spread at supermarkets in this outbreak? Mainly families, and also some workplaces. Yet level 3 allows people to bring one person into their bubble, increasing the bubble size. IMO this probably should have been removed under a delta level 3. But intermingling has been going on anyway in some cases, so will much change for many under level 3?

The poverty trap caused by a range of factors including the housing crisis seems to be playing a roll in this. Probably far too many people in many of these houses, and many houses are possibly not up to the current standards, being cold and damp, which in past years can be the cause of illnesses anyway. Ideal conditions for covid to spread.

mattwnz

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#2781255 20-Sep-2021 17:39

tdgeek:

On2or3wheels:

Well we would have eliminated it already if it hadn't been for a few rule breakers.

And inter family rule breakers, thats pertinent. Its still slack, but its not the usual flouters that we see on the news. Some cultures need support, are highly social, and maybe some poverty. No excuse, but thats far better than mobs openly flouting at Bondhi.

The question is why hasn't this been addressed, by giving them extra support, money etc. Far cheaper than the billion dollars a week cost of lockdown. I also do wonder how many didn't get tested because they didn't want to go into MIQ, when they needed to work to pay bills etc. This is why I have always supported helicopter payments, even if it was targeted towards south Auckland and other similar areas. This all comes down to the government IMO,and adapting things for the current conditions.

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