You might have noticed from the same series of graphs, our vaccination rate has dropped from a peak of around 1.6 doses per 100 people per day in late August and early September, to something closer to 1.0 now.
Meanwhile it's easier to get a vaccination now than it was in the beginning of September. Now that we appear to be past our peak, maybe someone can do some curve fitting to predict where we might be in a few weeks or months.
It would be good to know the vaccination rates for each area and whether there is a correlation with people coming out of level 3/4. Perhaps they feel there no longer any rush to get vaccinated. It would not surprise me if the same is beginning to happen in Auckland, where many people perceive it to be a "South Auckland" problem.
We should expect a big second bulge in our vaccination rate curve in a couple of weeks. The recommended 6 week gap after that couple of weeks of massive numbers straight after our outbreak was detected.
I am most interested in our first dose numbers at the moment as they are a leading metric. Seems most people that get one dose follow through and finish the course.
The way I see it (if we fail at dropping cases) we have about 2 months before stuff starts to get really intense. People that get their first dose today, and run a 6 week spacing
I haven't watched the 1pm presentations for quite a few days now but I'm curious if the PM is still quoting the total % of those who have been jabbed + those with bookings? That data has been tainted for weeks now, and I'm really surprised she was still using it last week.
With so many people not cancelling their bookings after being jabbed at drive up locations and anti vaxxers trying to undermine the system by poisoning the data first dose bookings are a bit of a shambles now.
I wonder if or when they'll move the default back to 3 weeks, as with no shortage of vaccines now our priority right now needs to be to get everybody with two jabs rather than first jabs into as many people as we can.