2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2782489 23-Sep-2021 10:13

I am impressed with the Courier Post driver that delivers here(home/office), our camera has shown that over the last three weeks he has scanned each time, an average of two visits per week. The Aramax driver has never scanned.

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tdgeek

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#2782494 23-Sep-2021 10:17

On2or3wheels:

The article above about Israel, was about the vaccinated still ending up in hospital as well. Yes it's lower numbers of course.

I've forgotten the numbers but I did read somewhere the number of immunocompromised & people with co-morbidities in NZ. I'm sure it was over 6% from memory.

And the general point was, you get high vaccination, you then retain high restrictions to reduce cases and thus hospitisation

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#2782500 23-Sep-2021 10:25

Fred99:

It's not a "lack of transparency" - so much as it's a perceived lack of transparency.

There's no guarantees here, and it's been repeatedly stated that it's an ever changing situation that needs to be responded to based on the best information available at the time.

One should not be forced to resort to OIA requests (and even that is problematic) to find out what advice, projections and recommendations have been made. Some of these contrast with what’s been presented at the 1PM show.

It’s very evident that information has been held back on more than one occasion. As I said, it’s a fine balance as you don’t want to demoralise the punters.

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On2or3wheels

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#2782504 23-Sep-2021 10:33

tdgeek:

And the general point was, you get high vaccination, you then retain high restrictions to reduce cases and thus hospitisation

Yes, and sorry that Stuff article was actually pretty realistic. I was getting a bit wound up at people saying we should just open up at X vaccination rate because then everything is fine & covid it all over & the rest of the world has done it.

Fred99

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#2782522 23-Sep-2021 10:37

On2or3wheels:

tdgeek:

hence epidemics of the unvaccinated

The article above about Israel, was about the vaccinated still ending up in hospital as well. Yes it's lower numbers of course.

I've forgotten the numbers but I did read somewhere the number of immunocompromised & people with co-morbidities in NZ. I'm sure it was over 6% from memory.

Very much higher than that - but depends who you include, elderly people are inherently "immunocompromised".

The Israeli data is misinterpreted by the public due to Simpson's paradox. The vaccine is far more effective than raw data suggests (by looking at it superficially - and this is why antivaxxers love their conclusions made from misinterpretation of the raw Israeli data - and have spread it all over the internet).

If we don't deal with it in NZ, then there's probably going to be a extreme example of how that works in the NZ Maori population if younger Maori (at low risk of hospitalisation or death from covid) continue to resist getting vaxxed. Kaumatua (who are getting vaxxed at reasonable rates) will be at greater risk of severe illness and death due to high levels of transmission in that community as well as reduced immune response as you age. So the raw data will show that confirmed cases in vaccinated people will be hospitalised and die at higher rates relative to hospitalisations deaths in the unvaccinated, than is truly the case if demographics (age) and comorbidities (also correlating with age) are properly factored in to the analysis.

I don't know how to refute many of the claims made by antivaxxers in a simple way. We're living in an information age - but where there's now great mistrust of "authority" and "experts" and criticism of their advice is cynical (which is easy/without need for knowledge or understanding) rather than sceptical.

Fred99

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#2782574 23-Sep-2021 10:44

cokemaster:

One should not be forced to resort to OIA requests (and even that is problematic) to find out what advice, projections and recommendations have been made. Some of these contrast with what’s been presented at the 1PM show.

And some of those vary simply because the projections made are made obsolete in a dynamic ever-changing situation.

Jas777

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#2782580 23-Sep-2021 10:51

tdgeek:

And the general point was, you get high vaccination, you then retain high restrictions to reduce cases and thus hospitisation

To what level are the high restrictions? Like keep the level 2 restrictions re 50/100 people etc for all areas where people get together?

The problem I can see is that initially you will have high vaccination and high restrictions then after a year you will have high restrictions and lower vaccination as people will say if we not allowed to do anything then why vaccinate.

Sadly it looks to me that the plan for us and the world is to hope the virus mutates to a form that is or is not more contagious but is less serious to humans.

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#2782583 23-Sep-2021 10:55

Seems not everyone agrees with a the mentioned target/rates

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/calls-grow-easing-lockdowns-based-m-ori-vaccination-rate

I know they joked about vaccination at fast food. But I didn't think they would take it seriously :) https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300413828/covid19-govt-considering-vaccinating-people-in-fast-food-queues

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#2782584 23-Sep-2021 10:56

MikeB4:

I am impressed with the Courier Post driver that delivers here(home/office), our camera has shown that over the last three weeks he has scanned each time, an average of two visits per week. The Aramax driver has never scanned.

Courier Post drivers are required to take a photo of the parcels when they drop them off - I wonder if that is what you are seeing?

In theory, the delivery drop off scan would also count for Covid tracing, as it gives the exact time the driver was at your premises.

Clint

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#2782585 23-Sep-2021 10:59

clinty:

MikeB4:

I am impressed with the Courier Post driver that delivers here(home/office), our camera has shown that over the last three weeks he has scanned each time, an average of two visits per week. The Aramax driver has never scanned.

Courier Post drivers are required to take a photo of the parcels when they drop them off - I wonder if that is what you are seeing?

In theory, the delivery drop off scan would also count for Covid tracing, as it gives the exact time the driver was at your premises.

Clint

Definitely scanning the Covid QR we have at the door.

tdgeek

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#2782590 23-Sep-2021 11:05

Jas777:

tdgeek:

And the general point was, you get high vaccination, you then retain high restrictions to reduce cases and thus hospitisation

To what level are the high restrictions? Like keep the level 2 restrictions re 50/100 people etc for all areas where people get together?

The problem I can see is that initially you will have high vaccination and high restrictions then after a year you will have high restrictions and lower vaccination as people will say if we not allowed to do anything then why vaccinate.

Sadly it looks to me that the plan for us and the world is to hope the virus mutates to a form that is or is not more contagious but is less serious to humans.

Ive not seen that plan for us

Lets say we all sit on Level 2 until everyone is vaccinated, including 6 months and up, see how it goes. You can do most everything on Level 2. If all going fine, restrictions can be eased somewhat. There will be cases from the unvaccinated and the vaccinated that didn't fit in the 95% effective number. But hospital cases will be low as will ICU and deaths for the vast majority of us. Whatever booster regime is in play, will be there as will newborns as reported today. If you start off with more restrictions that you will need they can be eased, and that's based on hospital beds.

GV27

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#2782600 23-Sep-2021 11:14

Oblivian:

Seems not everyone agrees with a the mentioned target/rates

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/calls-grow-easing-lockdowns-based-m-ori-vaccination-rate

Not sure how much water the argument "they'll disproportionately suffer if they get Covid" holds if they're refusing to engage with an extremely high-profile vaccination drive.

You can't keep a the entire country at higher alert levels because one portion of it just flat out refuses to engage in the process at all.

wellygary

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#2782603 23-Sep-2021 11:17

tdgeek:

Lets say we all sit on Level 2 until everyone is vaccinated, including 6 months and up, see how it goes. You can do most everything on Level 2. If all going fine, restrictions can be eased somewhat. There will be cases from the unvaccinated and the vaccinated that didn't fit in the 95% effective number. But hospital cases will be low as will ICU and deaths for the vast majority of us. Whatever booster regime is in play, will be there as will newborns as reported today. If you start off with more restrictions that you will need they can be eased, and that's based on hospital beds.

You would need to provide some form of bespoke assistance to the Hospo and arts sectors that rely on larger gathering limits.

- they are one of the sectors that are pretty much uneconomic with the 2 metre rule and patron caps...

Fred99

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#2782609 23-Sep-2021 11:22

GV27:

Oblivian:

Seems not everyone agrees with a the mentioned target/rates

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/calls-grow-easing-lockdowns-based-m-ori-vaccination-rate

Not sure how much water the argument "they'll disproportionately suffer if they get Covid" holds if they're refusing to engage with an extremely high-profile vaccination drive.

You can't keep a the entire country at higher alert levels because one portion of it just flat out refuses to engage in the process at all.

There's a complicating issue (not covered in that article) that if vaccination rates remain at low levels then it'll be a reservoir of high case numbers and subsequent transmission seeding back to the general community.

Within that community, kaumatua (with reasonable vax rates - but most at risk from serious consequences of "breakthrough infection") are being seriously endangered by low vaxx rates among the <50YOs.

This needs to be sorted.

tdgeek

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#2782621 23-Sep-2021 11:39

wellygary:

You would need to provide some form of bespoke assistance to the Hospo and arts sectors that rely on larger gathering limits.

- they are one of the sectors that are pretty much uneconomic with the 2 metre rule and patron caps...

Sure. Read today they seem keen on vaccine passports so they can operate more freely, good idea. If we are "all" vaccinated, then if they served only vaccinated people, no real need to overly restrict numbers and spacing

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