2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2784291 25-Sep-2021 23:00

"The woman [who tested positive] told the Herald she was worried about wider virus spread in Auckland because she had been having symptoms for a few weeks"

I didn't think it was possible. What's the normal timeframe for having Covid?

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Rikkitic

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#2784292 25-Sep-2021 23:38

Oblivian:

I wonder if the non believers are watching tonight's movie?

Contagion :)

Spoiler alert. Global pandemic, explains how much humans touch their faces and how it transfers. About clusters, and the only ways to stop it.

Watching this again, I am struck by the similarities with Covid. It is spooky how closely this film seems to have anticipated real events.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Scott3

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#2784294 25-Sep-2021 23:50

I have been pleasantly surprised how low the case fatality rate this outbreak has been. 903 people recovered to one (tragic) fatality... Historically something like 50% of people on ventilators die, but that doesn't seem to be the case anymore (fingers crossed). Perhaps these new antiviral treatments are making really good inroads in care.

sbiddle:

The change in wording in recent weeks has been a massive shift - people can sit there any try and justify the fact we haven't abandoned our "elimination strategy" but the simple fact is most of those people don't even have a clue what it really means both in an epidemiological sense and the more commonly used NZ specific definition.

Even now it's becoming clear that our elimination strategy which is a process which by definition has goal of zero tolerance towards new cases is being stretched - sure we may say we have a zero tolerance towards new cases, but if we're accepting that zero cases may no longer be possible (which is something even Bloomfield said on multiple occasions this week) it's a suttle shift that is confusing those who believe elimination = zero cases.

I've been too busy to watch most of the 1pm standups this week but I am finding the changing strategy and focus on 90% vaccination to be interesting. In recent weeks we've had several prominent people from the left (with the first being Bernard Hickey) come out and say we'll be a closed country for years but right now the PM is pretty much pledging no lockdowns once we get to 90% of the eligible population vaccinated, and is still pushing ahead with reopening plans. He backtrack on vaccine passports and restrictions for unvaccinated seems to be evidence that we're still on this path.

It's pretty clear now that even such high levels of vaccination aren't going to be enough to prevent endemic Covid, and it's also pretty clear we simply can't stay shut much longer. The problem is going to be one of expectation vs reality and I think many people who think the PM and govt have done a great job with Covid still don't comprehend that we're not going back to a pre Covid world in the coming months, and in 2022 possibly won't even be in a country that has the freedoms we did in early 2022 which is something Prof Skegg has waned of.

There is plenty of potential for backlash at the govt because we're either going to open up the country and people are going to catch Covid and die which will result in lots of anger from supporters, or we'll find in a few months that promises of reopening are suddenly put on hold which is simply going to create further turmoil and backlash due to the broken reopening pledges.

Many journalists are now seem to be avoiding the word elimination and using phrasing like "Achieve Zero Cases"... I think this is fairly smart. I just used elimination as it was the word which was used in that particular interview.

Regarding the 1pm conferences, The journalists are trying really hard to get a soundbite that says we are moving to a suppression strategy, but the Ministers and health officials, insistent they haven't given up. That said there is acknowledgement that case numbers will continue to rumble along, and a strong sense of positive spin on everything.

A couple of days back they had a modeler on in video conference. They said the goal was still to get on top of the current outbreak, but the modeling was to give an idea of what our future may look like. Short answer was vaccination was critical, and even with 90% of 5+ year olds vaccinated, we will still need to stack substantial containment measures (that are long term sustainable) to keep harm at a tolerable level.

The flip on governments stance in such a short time on no jab, no entry stuff has been, well sudden. Really the global situation hasn't changed much in that time. Perhaps it was hoped we could get to more than 64% of the population before demand started to slow... perhaps it was thought we would have months phone, doorknock etc on the reaming eligible to get rates high. Perhaps it was just thought to be better to get most of the roll out done with zero pressure for participation, before breaking out the stick...

I get the feeling they are testing the water at the moment, hyping the importance of vaccines, and saying stuff like mandatory vaccination is under active consideration, and seeing what the public / media reaction will be. Credit to NZME for their "The 90% project". If no serious push back it is likely requiring medical workers to be vaccinated will happen - similar basis as border workers now there is covid-19 in our community. and more groups from there, until our proof of vaccine app is ready and we can roll out no jab, no entry stuff. Industries like events that are suffering under level 2 will be crying out for anything that can allow them to operate at the moment.

In terms of the longer term plan, it must be super tricky for the politicians. New Zealanders are used to living covid-19 free in the midst of a pandemic have an expectation of few or no covid-19 deaths, and little in the way of longer term containment measures.

Before delta it was pretty easy. We roll out the vaccine until we hit the magic herd immunity number (+ a safety margin to account for uneven vaccination spread), then we basically open back up. We would have outbreaks from offshore, but the resulting clusters won't spread much. The delta strain of course killed that.

But now the plan seems to be vaccinate a lot, and then move to a suppression strategy. This is going to upset many, especially those outside of Auckland, when the virus inevitably leaks to other regions. And those with kids that can't be vaccinated, immunity issues etc... And is likely going to require being in level 2 until Christmas (plus a decent amount of time at level 3). And we will still want to manage cases coming in from overseas, so all the MIQ upset is still going to exist.

And life is returning to normal in many locations overseas, what was previously seen as NZ leading the world will be soon be seen as us being stubborn holdouts.

heavenlywild

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#2784295 25-Sep-2021 23:56

^Agree.

We basically patted ourselves on the back for 18 months only for the world to come back and laugh at us.

We've done well but we didn't make the most of it due to the vaccination stroll out. End of story.

Scott3

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#2784296 26-Sep-2021 00:03

Current alert level order:

https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2021/0263/latest/whole.html#LMS549703

And previous one for comparison:

https://www.legislation.govt.nz/regulation/public/2021/0237/latest/whole.html

I was really surprised by clause 21 (1) (b), which says under level 3 you can only access business and services if "the business or service is the nearest business or service of that kind". That clause didn't exist under level 4.

Means all my trips to the supermarket under level 4 were legal, but my trip yesterday was not (My preferred supermarket is the one about 4km from home, not the one about 3km from home).

I'm not super concerned, the traffic volumes at level 3 effectively make the rules unenforceable anyway.

The PM asking for those over 65 to stay home in level 3 until they are vaccinated isn't in the order, so seems to just a request, rather than a requirement.

Scott3

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#2784298 26-Sep-2021 00:16

heavenlywild: ^Agree.

We basically patted ourselves on the back for 18 months only for the world to come back and laugh at us.

We've done well but we didn't make the most of it due to the vaccination stroll out. End of story.

A big reason our vaccine roll out was slow was the decision to not stick with what appeared to be the original plan of 750k courses of pfizer, and 4.25m courses of Astrazenica.

This decision was made in the wake of stage 3 trail results showing Pfizer had much higher vaccine efficacy. Data on transmission wasn't available then (and is still pritty shakey), but I think the reason for this change was to lower the % vaccinated threshold we would get herd immunity, hence increasing out odds of getting it. I fully backed the stratergy

But the delta strain (and decay in effectiveness over time of the pfizer vaccine) have broken that. Leaving us in a tricky spot. (hopefully either a delta specific pfizer booster, or a novavax booster will kick the effectiveness back where it needs to be for herd immunity, but I doubt those will be ready before feb 2022)

Should note that while Places like the UK might be laughing at our current restrictions, they did report 180 daily deaths, so replicating what they are doing would be a bad idea for us.

Handle9

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#2784303 26-Sep-2021 01:15

heavenlywild:
We basically patted ourselves on the back for 18 months only for the world to come back and laugh at us.

The "rest of the world" barely knows where NZ is and couldn't really care less what NZ does.

Almost every conversation I have with people who aren't from NZ or Australia I have to explain that I haven't been home for two years, it's mandatory 2 week hotel quarantine, etc etc.

MikeB4

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#2784305 26-Sep-2021 08:00

heavenlywild: ^Agree.

We basically patted ourselves on the back for 18 months only for the world to come back and laugh at us.

We've done well but we didn't make the most of it due to the vaccination stroll out. End of story.

Why would the world be laughing at us? For the vast majority of Aotearoa there is no Covid. Yes we have an outbreak in Auckland, it is contained within the Auckland environs and despite what many North of the Bombay Hills may believe there is a large area of Aotearoa south of the Bombay Hills.

Batman

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#2784309 26-Sep-2021 09:00

Geektastic: I was somewhat astonished to read an article today in which a woman was quoted as saying she had been told - and had believed - that the Covid vaccination was "Satanic" and that's why she hadn't had it.

Just how do you deal with that?!

You confirm they are a cult and move on I think.

Fred99

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#2784311 26-Sep-2021 09:35

Geektastic: I was somewhat astonished to read an article today in which a woman was quoted as saying she had been told - and had believed - that the Covid vaccination was "Satanic" and that's why she hadn't had it.

Just how do you deal with that?!

Satan seems to get such a raw deal - crazy religious cults put so much time and effort into demonising him.

Fred99

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#2784313 26-Sep-2021 09:45

heavenlywild:

We've done well but we didn't make the most of it due to the vaccination stroll out. End of story.

Oh gosh - you've got a seriously distorted view of reality. You seem to be stuck in a sad little world of political one-liners and memes, eavesdropped from a young Nats pyjama party.

GV27

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#2784314 26-Sep-2021 09:55

Fred99:

Oh gosh - you've got a seriously distorted view of reality. You seem to be stuck in a sad little world of political one-liners and memes, eavesdropped from a young Nats pyjama party.

For someone who is always lecturing other people about bringing politics into this thread, this is a pretty low-bar response.

Current Eternal Prime Minister Dr Sir Lord Johnathan Key has some advice for our response:

1. Give Māori and Pacific health providers a financial incentive for every person they get vaccinated in the next six weeks.

2. Give every person aged between 12-29 a $25 voucher of their choice if they get vaccinated before December 1.

3. Allow only vaccinated people into licensed premises (and maybe park the Shot Bro bus outside a few nightclubs as an incentive).

4. Tell New Zealanders when borders will reopen. It might incentivise more people to get jabbed.

5. Stop ruling by fear. Instead, reassure people that living with the virus is possible, as long as you're vaccinated. Take positive actions like funding Pharmac to invest in therapies proven to help fight the virus, build up our hospital capacity and workforce, use saliva testing for Covid, subsidise home-testing kits for Covid and order booster shots now.

The most interesting thing in his whole NZ Herald piece is actually this line:

For those who say it's too hard, or too risky I ask this: one day, when the largest part of the Minister of Finance's Budget pays only the interest on the debt we are racking up now, and you can't have the latest cancer drugs, or more police, because New Zealand can't afford them, what will you think?

In fact if he'd just started with this and expanded on it, it would have been a far more interest piece. Pretending that the noble act of saving lives in the here and now at enormous cost to public finances is going to have major, major repercussions, and dismissing them with 'economy vs. lives' is no longer going to cut it.

Batman

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#2784315 26-Sep-2021 09:59

Here's the another person's take on it

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2021/sep/24/once-covid-world-beaters-the-mood-in-new-zealand-is-changing-and-jacinda-ardern-knows-it

More from guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/25/people-are-tired-chris-hipkins-the-new-zealand-minister-battling-to-eliminate-covid

Fred99

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#2784320 26-Sep-2021 10:07

GV27:

Fred99:

Oh gosh - you've got a seriously distorted view of reality. You seem to be stuck in a sad little world of political one-liners and memes, eavesdropped from a young Nats pyjama party.

For someone who is always lecturing other people about bringing politics into this thread, this is a pretty low-bar response.

It was a thoroughly deserved response - to a deliberate distortion of facts / lie by the OP.

kiwikurt

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#2784322 26-Sep-2021 10:08

GV27:
Fred99:

Oh gosh - you've got a seriously distorted view of reality. You seem to be stuck in a sad little world of political one-liners and memes, eavesdropped from a young Nats pyjama party.

For someone who is always lecturing other people about bringing politics into this thread, this is a pretty low-bar response.

I don't think a political PR piece inserted into the two largest print media outlets is a high bar that's for sure.

Key's list comes across as really under-developed thinking.

I love that the organisation that wrote it thinks $25 is a genuine incentive. It gives it that real "here peasants" energy.

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