2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2785120 27-Sep-2021 18:14

mattwnz:

Batman:

from stuff

Woman at Waitākere police cells tests positive, not all staff were wearing PPE
A woman who was in custody at Auckland’s Waitākere police cells has tested positive for Covid-19, but not all staff who came into contact with her were wearing full personal protective equipment (PPE), police say. Waitematā district operations manager inspector Jason Edwards said the district custody unit at Henderson station had been temporarily closed after a person processed through the cells on September 23 tested positive for the virus.
She was asymptomatic and went through a health screening test before she was taken into the custody unit.

This is a concern IMO. Although the PM says there is no 'widespread' community transmission, there seems to be undetected spread in parts of the Auckland community occurring.

Of course there is. 30 cases last two days, and when they did the mobile testing they are picking up people with symptoms. Flouting, intermingling households, and people with symptoms not getting a test. How can you fight against that? We are picking up cases that were seeded a week ago. Whats the last week been? 130 odd? 12 cases sounds great, but it was 30 last two days and probably 130 the last week. Its flatlining at this rate it seems

Reanalyse

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#2785121 27-Sep-2021 18:20

Batman:

DS248:

Potentially interesting times ahead for some people trying to travel internationally if the government is not able to verify their C19 vaccination status.

at least it was recorded somewhere

that or selfies, always come in useful

My vaccination status appeared one day after the jab on the Doctors Records

Technofreak

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#2785122 27-Sep-2021 18:21

Perhaps someone can cast some light on this for me.

I've been trying to get a comparison between the impact of the annual flu and Covid to get figures to counter the argument that Covid isn't really any different to the flu.

Since we haven't had enough Covid in New Zealand (thankfully) to produce any useful figures I have been going through the US data.

I used the 2018/18 flu year as a yardstick and looked at the various age groups and compared this to the Covid data. The figures I have found show a significant increase in deaths as might be expected. However the number of cases per 100,000 and hospitalisations per 100,000 is very similar to or less than the flu which I find rather odd considering the number of deaths.

To give examples.

The overall death rate for the flu was 10.4/100,000 compared to Covid which was 203.6/100,000. Covid is about 20 time worse than the flu.

The hospitalisation rate for the flu was 149.9/100,000 and for Covid only 65.8/100,000. Covid is just half as bad as the flu

The number of cases for the flu was 10,856.9/100,000 and for Covid 12,879.3/100,000. Covid is slightly worse than the flu.

I realise my method may be a bit rough and ready but I think it's accurate enough to give a close approximation.

I know the effects of Covid vary significantly by age group but the apparent discrepancy id across all age groups.

I've used the data from these sources.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1254477/weekly-number-of-covid-19-hospitalizations-in-the-us-by-age/

This last link I picked out the data by hovering my mouse over each line on the graph.

Am I missing something?

Are a lot of people dying that are not getting hospitalised?

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#2785125 27-Sep-2021 18:24

Ge0rge:
Handle9:

That was in relation to the health order not general employment law.

Customs won that case.

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126298781/customs-justified-in-sacking-border-worker-who-refused-to-get-covid19-vaccine--employment-authority-rules

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/451916/mandatory-vaccination-order-under-spotlight-in-high-court

Seems that it's not done with yet.

Looks like that one got closed out as well https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126502673/former-border-worker-who-lost-her-job-after-not-getting-jabbed-loses-high-court-challenge

tdgeek

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#2785128 27-Sep-2021 18:32

Technofreak:

Perhaps someone can cast some light on this for me.

Am I missing something?

Are a lot of people dying that are not getting hospitalised?

Interesting post. I watch a few sports. And there have been cases, so the sportsperson is out, but its always just out for one game/match/tournament. Now these aren't athletic specimens. F1 (yes they are fit), Tour golf has had semi regular cases. Other sports. Other personalties. Its not hard for some to be wondering about the severeness when they see these ultra short term cases, who are back out competing again. Elderly and afflicted people certainly are the very high risk. I think all 27 deaths we have had are elderly?

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#2785129 27-Sep-2021 18:32

Technofreak:

Perhaps someone can cast some light on this for me.

does your hospitalization rate (which seems way off) match the one here? under hospitalizations

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html

clinty

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#2785179 27-Sep-2021 18:36

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

This is a concern IMO. Although the PM says there is no 'widespread' community transmission, there seems to be undetected spread in parts of the Auckland community occurring.

Of course there is. 30 cases last two days, and when they did the mobile testing they are picking up people with symptoms. Flouting, intermingling households, and people with symptoms not getting a test. How can you fight against that? We are picking up cases that were seeded a week ago. Whats the last week been? 130 odd? 12 cases sounds great, but it was 30 last two days and probably 130 the last week. Its flatlining at this rate it seems

This was covered off (obliquely) in todays briefing ( sorry no transcript yet, here is the youtube time code ) by Dr Bloomfield

Someone at Auckland Public health did some modelling around a couple of the active sub clusters and the overall outbreak

One of the sub cluster ( possibly the one that keeps turning up in Police/Corrections) appears to have an R value of around 1 - which is what is giving us this "long tail". The rest of the out break is well below 1

ie - one cluster is causing the issue. Dr Bloomfield said there was good engagement with this cluster - so hopefully this will start to come down, although he said stil another 45-50 cases may appear

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#2785181 27-Sep-2021 18:41

clinty:

tdgeek:

Of course there is. 30 cases last two days, and when they did the mobile testing they are picking up people with symptoms. Flouting, intermingling households, and people with symptoms not getting a test. How can you fight against that? We are picking up cases that were seeded a week ago. Whats the last week been? 130 odd? 12 cases sounds great, but it was 30 last two days and probably 130 the last week. Its flatlining at this rate it seems

This was covered off (obliquely) in todays briefing ( sorry no transcript yet, here is the youtube time code ) by Dr Bloomfield

Someone at Auckland Public health did some modelling around a couple of the active sub clusters and the overall outbreak

One of the sub cluster ( possibly the one that keeps turning up in Police/Corrections) appears to have an R value of around 1 - which is what is giving us this "long tail". The rest of the out break is well below 1

ie - one cluster is causing the issue. Dr Bloomfield said there was good engagement with this cluster - so hopefully this will start to come down, although he said stil another 45-50 cases may appear

Clint

I guess that is reassuring . It is the MOH that recommended moving to level 3, so they obviously know a lot more details than the public generally knows. I understand one reason they don't disclose more detail is due to privacy.

tdgeek

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#2785184 27-Sep-2021 18:44

clinty:

This was covered off (obliquely) in todays briefing ( sorry no transcript yet, here is the youtube time code ) by Dr Bloomfield

Someone at Auckland Public health did some modelling around a couple of the active sub clusters and the overall outbreak

One of the sub cluster ( possibly the one that keeps turning up in Police/Corrections) appears to have an R value of around 1 - which is what is giving us this "long tail". The rest of the out break is well below 1

ie - one cluster is causing the issue. Dr Bloomfield said there was good engagement with this cluster - so hopefully this will start to come down, although he said stil another 45-50 cases may appear

Clint

Yep, they are taking the tests to the cases.

The long tail is normal, as you end up with the high hanging fruit. But when I read that they took tests to the people and they are getting people with symptoms, well, thats difficult. He said last week another 50-60 cases, now its 45-50 cases? Still seeding, causing more cases.

Im seeing more positivity over negative news that Ive recalled in the past. Before it seemed to be upbeat and positive. My feel now is that its trying to hide the difficulty they are having this time round. The recent household and neighbour intermingling is really hard to combat, as is symptomatic people not getting tested.

ajobbins

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#2785185 27-Sep-2021 18:46

Technofreak:

The overall death rate for the flu was 10.4/100,000 compared to Covid which was 203.6/100,000. Covid is about 20 time worse than the flu.

The hospitalisation rate for the flu was 149.9/100,000 and for Covid only 65.8/100,000. Covid is just half as bad as the flu

The number of cases for the flu was 10,856.9/100,000 and for Covid 12,879.3/100,000. Covid is slightly worse than the flu.

Are a lot of people dying that are not getting hospitalised?

Considering only a fraction of those hospitalised go on to die, yet the death figure far exceeds the hospitalisation figure, it appears one of those numbers is WAY off

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mattwnz

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#2785186 27-Sep-2021 18:58

^^^ In the UK, many in rest homes never made it to hospital. Recommend watchin the movie Help, which is about Covid in UK resthomes. A huge number of deaths were in resthomes in UK. It was a tragedy.

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#2785188 27-Sep-2021 19:05

mattwnz:

^^^ In the UK, many in rest homes never made it to hospital. Recommend watchin the movie Help, which is about Covid in UK resthomes. A huge number of deaths were in resthomes in UK. It was a tragedy.

I think so. Many may have non resuscitation orders. Are highly susceptible to any malady at that age. Am I right that NZ death rate is 100% of over 70 and zero for the rest? Or closish to that?

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#2785191 27-Sep-2021 19:24

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

^^^ In the UK, many in rest homes never made it to hospital. Recommend watchin the movie Help, which is about Covid in UK resthomes. A huge number of deaths were in resthomes in UK. It was a tragedy.

I think so. Many may have non resuscitation orders. Are highly susceptible to any malady at that age. Am I right that NZ death rate is 100% of over 70 and zero for the rest? Or closish to that?

go to

COVID-19 by age and sex

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics

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#2785193 27-Sep-2021 19:31

interesting high court statement (assuming it is as it says and i think i understand it)

"He also said there was no requirement in the New Zealand Bill of Rights or any other piece of legislation that said that secondary legislation could not contain a provision that limiting one or more rights set out in the bill of rights."

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126502673/former-border-worker-who-lost-her-job-after-not-getting-jabbed-loses-high-court-challenge

ezbee

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#2785194 27-Sep-2021 19:34

Covid Statistics.

Apparently dying at home is a distressing feature of Australian outbreak.
There was a study done on excess deaths which found many nations has twice the excess deaths as Covid recorded deaths.
Even now USA is reporting about 9% positivity, which means they expect they are way undertesting still.
USA stats are a real problem, like Florida firing and excluding someone because they came up with one of the best dashboards.
They did not like the numbers it was reporting.

Have a look at Uk and some of the European countries with better systems perhaps.

William is one of almost 40 Australians who died at home with COVID-19 in this outbreak. His family says his condition deteriorated rapidly
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-27/australians-dying-at-home-with-covid-19-sydney-melbourne/100482978

There was a feature of Covid-19 mentioned early, high functioning people with dangerously low blood oxygen.
Maybe this is what is happening, they look ok then go downhill in hours.

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