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Hypotheses made on this site a couple of weeks back are not showing strong signs of being true.
Level 4 wasn't working to eliminate the outbreak in a reasonable time, so either we needed to step things up (level 5?), or go down to level 3, to minimum the economic cost of the lock down's, but increasing massively increasing the risk we don't get to zero cases.
I think the "infectious in the community" is the best stat to track to predict the pathway of the outbreak.
Graph (thanks to @ajobbins via https://covidstats.jdk.nz/) is showing an uptick of the trend line starting about 4 days ago, roughly when we would expect the lag of numbers from level 4 to start wearing off... Any chance the red bars could be under the blue ones?
It can be inferred from this that cases will keep rising in the near term under level 3.
Will be very interesting to see what the dialog is on the Monday press conference. The governments credibility is fast erroding with the continued use of the word elimination, and talk of getting to zero cases... Dropping Auckland to level 2 with the same dialog would be laughable, in light of roughly half of the cases of the last few days not being in isolation for their entire infectious period.
I think moving Auckland back up to alert level 4 (or 5) is off the cards now. Would be a clear admission that the move to level 3 was a mistake, and given we have given the virus this breather, would take at least 4 weeks to get to zero cases... I don't think there is social licence for such a lockdown. Plus lock-down fatigue would set in making it less effective anyway.
This basically means the only option is to come clean about the move to some kind of suppression strategy. Under a suppression strategy the purpose of the alert levels will be to time the peak of the outbreak, and (in the future), to slow the outbreak to relieve pressure on our health system. Ultimately I think the public will demand that Auckland go to level 2 under a suppression strategy. So the only question is timing... Is it worth a couple more weeks at L3 now, to delay the peak of the outbreak by a couple of weeks to get more people vaccinated, hospitals more prepared, more treatments available etc?
First doses have slowed dramatically now (only 12,278 yesterday), so it will be hard to justify waiting for more first doses (and the virus is going to take 6 odd weeks to ramp up anyway so second doses aren't as much of a concern), without dramatic intervention in that area. Proof of vaccine app isn't ready yet, so that can't be used as a stick yet.
Personally I am pritty scared by what is happening in NSW and VIC. If I was running the country I would hit the button on mandatory vaccinations (medical exemptions only). Say that a few people aren't going to hold the majority of the population hostage. I suspect the government may not be willing to accept the likely massive resulting protests so won't go that route.
In terms of travel, if we end up have 300+ daily cases in say 4 - 6 weeks, we won't have enough MIQ bed's to put them in, so will need to start having them isolate at home. If we are isolating confirmed positive cases at home, it is hard to justify that we are not allowing (vaccinated and negitive test result) international travelers home isolation too, so I imagine that will come fast.
Will also have to deal with a UK style "Pingdemic" at some point, where so many essential workers are required to isolated critical supply chains like supermarket break down, and we ultimately need to abandon requiring essential workers to isolate if they are a close contact to keep food on the shelves... Would really want them all vaccinated if it comes to that.
If all this comes to fruition, it will be hard news for Non-Auckland to take. The border is super porous, so a large number of cases in Auckland is going to result in spread to the rest of the country eventually likely via a legitimate traveler.
And quietly in the background from today's press release:
Naumi MIQ worker
Whole genome sequencing carried out by ESR has identified a clear epidemiological link between the Naumi MIQ worker who was reported as a positive case on September 30 and another case at the border.
The worker tested positive on 29 September as part of routine surveillance testing. They are fully vaccinated and have been tested regularly. The hours they worked mean they had limited contact with guests at the hotel. They are now isolating in a quarantine facility.
An investigation is underway to determine the pathway of the worker’s infection and identify potential contacts.
In the unlikely situation we did eliminate this outbreak, we are only buying time until the next one... Our MIQ is far from perfect.
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