2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2789543 5-Oct-2021 08:11

MikeB4: @Dingbatt I think you are right. I am angry, disappointed and very anxious. I got 2.4 hours sleep last night.

If you can step away from all media, including here, for a couple of days. It’s not going to help, fresh air, conversation and time with loved ones will.

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tdgeek

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#2789551 5-Oct-2021 08:24

Handle9:
tdgeek:

I feel that the responsible will continue to be safe, and those that are not compliant will continue that poor behaviour. I base this on 97% of the cases are not vaccinated and generally emanated from a small set of suburbs who keep infecting themselves.

Nope. Once it goes exponential it won’t be a disease for brown people anymore. Everyone will join the party.

It’s what’s happened everywhere including here.

I based my comment on today until we are largely vaccinated, so basically from now until Dec 2021. Yes, it will spread in NZ, thats already started. I gave up on that last week. If we start doubling our cases every 2 weeks, then yes, but I don't see that happening.

Handle9

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#2789555 5-Oct-2021 08:29

tdgeek:
Handle9:

Nope. Once it goes exponential it won’t be a disease for brown people anymore. Everyone will join the party.

It’s what’s happened everywhere including here.

I based my comment on today until we are largely vaccinated, so basically from now until Dec 2021. Yes, it will spread in NZ, thats already started. I gave up on that last week. If we start doubling our cases every 2 weeks, then yes, but I don't see that happening.

You really need to go and watch the ABC documentary on how it went out of control in Australia. The parallels with Victoria are very easy to see. Even with high vaccination rates NZ is in for a very unpleasant time.

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#2789566 5-Oct-2021 08:46

Handle9:

You really need to go and watch the ABC documentary on how it went out of control in Australia. The parallels with Victoria are very easy to see. Even with high vaccination rates NZ is in for a very unpleasant time.

Perhaps. Our lockdowns were sooner and harsher. Its largely contained cases and deaths. Even in AKL with he recent spikes, I see reasons for those that show me at least, that its working in AKL and there are epicentres of flouting with households/families/neighbours. Gangs now, so the spikes aren't really surprising, but as I see it, its not a case of all of Auckland are failing so its out of control. We have been trying to hold off so vaccinations catch up

ABC iView The Virus?

MileHighKiwi

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#2789578 5-Oct-2021 09:03

“At the moment, it’s not totally beyond hope that New Zealand could control its new cluster, but the odds are against it,” says Paul Hunter, professor of health protection at the University of East Anglia. “In a very short space of time, they could be trying to slow the spread and flatten the curve, just as Britain was more than a year ago.

“All power to New Zealand for keeping deaths so low, but the issue is that if your policy fails and you haven’t got anything else in place, it will be as bad as if you had let it rip right from the start. New Zealand could find all the sacrifices of the past year wasted if it doesn’t get its population immunised quickly enough.”

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/going-south-jacinda-ardern/

A kind way of saying we failed. We lived on the gains made last year and didn't prepare for the inevitable wave. Why didn't we run an international recruitment programme for ICU nurses? Probably dozens if not hundreds around the world that would happily move here if it was made easy for them, instead the nurses here were forced to go on strike over pay and conditions.

Buster

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#2789582 5-Oct-2021 09:05

About 800,000 vaccine doses in stock. A pity it's not in arms.

Group 4 second doses will put a bit of a dent in that over the next few weeks but no doubt more Pfizer will arrive in that time.

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#2789587 5-Oct-2021 09:10

I heard (can't remember where) that the 6 week wait between doses is no longer necessary and the original 3 week period between doses can be just as effective.

Is this true, or am I being fed more misinformation?

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mkissin

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#2789589 5-Oct-2021 09:16

I believe the 6 week wait (in NZ at least) was to stretch the dose supply to maximise first doses.

the general data I’m seeing is that stretching the time between doses makes the protection more effective (but not by a vast amount) as well as potentially lessening the short term reactions to the second dose. I’m at about 3 weeks now, and tossing up what to do about the second dose.

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#2789605 5-Oct-2021 09:31

Today, he (GR) said, the government will detail more about what vaccines will enable people to do in the future. Robertson said the fact that vaccinations would allow people to live a normal life would be a good incentive. He said Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will today be discussing vaccine certificates and the future.

Stuff this morning

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#2789606 5-Oct-2021 09:33

tdgeek:

The % of cases that are not vaccinated is quite powerful

You have to be quite careful with messaging around this, and what happens as vaccination rates rise it that the % of vaccinated people in positive cases, hospitalisations and deaths starts going up - but the percentage of bad outcomes comes down.

Given that you can still get the virus, get sick and die when vaccinated, albeit at far lower rates, you have to look at the numbers proportionally to earlier outbreaks.

If 100% of the population was vaccinated, you would have 100% of cases, hospitalisations and deaths among the vaccinated. Without context, people will wrongly see, or try and use that rising number to say vaccines don't work.

Last year, in the worst week of cases for VIC, over a 7 day period we had 3,020 cases and 110 deaths. That's a death rate of around 3.64% of positive cases.

In the last 7 days here in VIC, we have had 8624 cases (nearly 3x) and 28 deaths, or a death rate around 0.32% - less than 1/10th of that seen last year.

Vaccination rates around 82% first done as 52% fully vaccinated in 15+.

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GV27

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#2789608 5-Oct-2021 09:35

tdgeek:

Today, he (GR) said, the government will detail more about what vaccines will enable people to do in the future. Robertson said the fact that vaccinations would allow people to live a normal life would be a good incentive. He said Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will today be discussing vaccine certificates and the future.

Stuff this morning

Great but this really needed to be part of yesterday's announcement.

trig42

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#2789613 5-Oct-2021 09:42

I'm afraid I have lost faith in the government's response. 'Be Kind' is now wearing thin. They seem to be muddling along and not telling us the whole truth. Last year I had the feeling we were getting all the information. This year, not so much. About time they grew some teeth.

I will still do what they want, but they are forgetting about the (now vast majority) of people who have done the right thing and stayed home, got vaccinated and stopped the spread.They are coming across as toothless. Has anyone AT ALL been fined/arrested for covid breaces in these suburbs that Covd is spreading around in?

The Gangs can have big gatherings, Brian Tamaki and other churches the same. We all sit at home and wait for more cases the next day.

I'll admit, my mental health is now suffering. I stay off the news sites, and I only check this thread once or twice a week now. I am still working full time (at home) luckily, I'd hate to think what it must be like for people who can't. I have a friend who is a barber. He's on the wage subsidy. That pays his rent and basic bills. That's it. We flick him some cash when we can as we are fortunate anough to be working, but he's suffering.

What I want the government to do (and what I was hoping they'd do yesterday). Keep us locked down - fine, but tell us what to expect if we are/aren't vaxxed. That's the way to get those hesitant to roll up their sleeves. In my experience, from people I've talked to, those aged 18-35 are the issue.

Want to go to a festival over summer? Better have the jab (and not just on the morning of).

Want to go visit family around the country - better have the Jab

Want to work as a teacher/with kids? Better have the jab.

Want to work in Hospo? Better have the jab. etc...

About time some sticks and carrots came out of the beehive.

Rant over (for now).

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#2789616 5-Oct-2021 09:51

GV27:
tdgeek:

Today, he (GR) said, the government will detail more about what vaccines will enable people to do in the future. Robertson said the fact that vaccinations would allow people to live a normal life would be a good incentive. He said Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern will today be discussing vaccine certificates and the future.

Stuff this morning

Great but this really needed to be part of yesterday's announcement.

An announcement about an announcement after an announcement about no announcement.

CruciasNZ

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#2789618 5-Oct-2021 09:51

trig42:

About time some sticks and carrots came out of the beehive.

Agree, Humans are generally self-centered beings, so there will always be a core group of people who do not follow rules or look out for those around them. The Be Kind messaging needs a solid Or Else to convince recalcitrant individuals to do the right thing. Requiring vaccination cards to access hospitality, entertainment, tourism and inter-regional transportation is a sensible step. For those who genuinely cannot get vaccinated then that needs to be on their card, and it needs to be illegal to discriminate against them; this only works if the system is hard to fake, so government issued cards like Drivers ID and the COVID app are the ways to go - not bits of cardboard like has been done overseas.

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Fred99

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#2789620 5-Oct-2021 09:52

ajobbins:

In the last 7 days here in VIC, we have had 8624 cases (nearly 3x) and 28 deaths, or a death rate around 0.32% - less than 1/10th of that seen last year.

Vaccination rates around 82% first done as 52% fully vaccinated in 15+.

Auckland metro has a higher first dose (12+ - looks like about 84%) and slightly lower fully vaccinated % (looks like about 47%) than Melbourne. Also everybody vaxxed in NZ has received the Pfizer vaccine.

If L3 "slightly eased" can hold daily cases at the levels we've got now and vax rates continue to grow - albeit slowly - then it won't be the abject disaster some are suggesting, but it also won't be the perfect elimination exit strategy it could have been if for example, NSW had acted quickly to eliminate the small cluster originating from one dumb unvaccinated and maskless taxi driver delivering aircrew back in late June.

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