2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2789730 5-Oct-2021 12:04

GV27:
It's been asked before, but did we ever establish if the three week or six week period for jab was optimal?

I sent for 3 weeks for instant protection and not worry about medium term antibody levels cos when that happens I plan to take a booster.

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alasta

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#2789733 5-Oct-2021 12:07

Fred99:

GV27:

It's been asked before, but did we ever establish if the three week or six week period for jab was optimal?

Many pages in this thread back, but the answer is almost unequivocal "yes". 6 weeks (or longer) between doses provides a statistically significant greater medium-term immune response, probably too soon to claim that long term immune response is significantly better, but I expect that data will come in time.

That poses NZ with a problem, in that known decline in immune response after 20 weeks is real (IIRC drops from ~95% to 70% effective with Pfizer - worse with other vaccines), yet many of our most vulnerable were vaccinated with a 3 week dose gap ~ 20 weeks ago.

It would be interesting to know how those figures compare with a 6 week gap vs 3 weeks.

I personally suspect that we are going to need boosters next year regardless, especially if the Pfizer vaccine gets optimised for the delta variant. That was part of my logic in opting for a three week gap.

Fred99

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#2789736 5-Oct-2021 12:09

wellygary:

But that is the kicker, its not 90%+ .... its 90%+ of minorities, ..

The govt clearly said previously that a blanket number will not work because there will be groups with lower protection and that would be unacceptable....

"socially connected groups of minorities"

Example - my BIL who's an antivaxxer, not a member of an "ethnic" minority, but socially connected to a group of "alternative / non-evidenced based health fanatics". They're all close friends and I'm confident that if any of them got vaxxed and the informal "group" found out, they'd be ostracised and find themselves friendless and very lonely. That's a real thing.

I've done my best - for "reasons" he trusts me, but it's ended in tears - literally, when the choice he knows he's making is wrong and endangers the life of his father (my FIL) he broke down and cried. Still not enough though for him to commit to getting vaxxed.

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#2789742 5-Oct-2021 12:21

alasta:

It would be interesting to know how those figures compare with a 6 week gap vs 3 weeks.

I personally suspect that we are going to need boosters next year regardless, especially if the Pfizer vaccine gets optimised for the delta variant. That was part of my logic in opting for a three week gap.

Over here, the advice changed when we were in active outbreak in a couple of ways, but we have more than one vaccine.

For Pfizer, as they did in NZ, they moved out second dose from 3 to 6 weeks when supply was limited. Lower but broad coverage is better than strong coverage in only a minority of cases. When supply increased, they switched back to 3 weeks for all. Better to get strong coverage quickly.

For Astra Zenenca, where 12 weeks is recommended for full coverage, but we had far more supply than demand, they did the opposite. At the same time as moving Pfizer further apart, they dropped AZ from 12 to 4-6 weeks. Because we had the supply, better to get strong coverage quickly. I ended up getting my second AZ at 7 weeks, brought forward from my initial booking at 12 weeks, as I could see the VIC outbreak starting to ramp up.

Right now - NZ has plenty of supply, and you also have the potential for this outbreak to get much worse, and fast. Just look at how fast case numbers grew in NSW and VIC.

The smart thing - I think - is to drop it to 3 weeks ASAP, and encourage as many people as possible to get it at 3 weeks or as close to as they can. That will give you the best coverage the fastest, and you need that right now. Sure 6 weeks might give somewhat better long term protection, but you can cover that will a booster, as you point out will almost certainly be needed anyway, so it's the best of both worlds.

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#2789743 5-Oct-2021 12:21

ajobbins:

Without making it political - this is what the NZ public have been sold. That was the prize for holding to an elimination strategy.

The last 24 hours have been a shock to many. I don't think I've seen so much emotion from the NZ population at any other point in the pandemic.

Letting go of elimination is a big deal, and something many clearly weren't ready for.

I think the shock to many is the media and they know as well as anyone else that we have been on a Dec track with the vaccine and we dont want to be on lockdown all the time and so on. Buying time for the next tool, the vaccine. So, lets say the Govt said we will continue with elimination for as long as it will take, would that make everyone happy? Or we go the other way, 70% and she'll be right, tough on the rest. Both of those options would get stark criticism, but the option taken is midway, a bridge to Dec 2021.

Pity there is no election next week, then the 70% can act. 1 in 3 eligible's are not vaccinated, then there are the pre teens and young kids.

Elimination is a no go it seems, easing restrictions is also a no go. I guess it comes down to blame that we arent Covid free? Talk to those that are non compliant maybe. But we are very much a blame culture, i'll just put it down to that

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#2789756 5-Oct-2021 12:53

Yup MIL and FIL are them. I don't think they will get upset at their friends getting the vaccine. All their children children in laws have taken it.

It is how it is, in life there is a 100% chance of death at some point.

alexx

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#2789757 5-Oct-2021 12:55

GV27:

It's been asked before, but did we ever establish if the three week or six week period for jab was optimal?

In theory, the answer is six weeks gives better protection in the medium/long term. You have to ask yourself, do you think you are likely to need the extra protection in the next few weeks, vs do you think that boosters are arriving in mid 2022 or earlier?

#include <standard.disclaimer>

Batman

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#2789760 5-Oct-2021 13:03

alexx:
GV27:

It's been asked before, but did we ever establish if the three week or six week period for jab was optimal?

In theory, the answer is six weeks gives better protection in the medium/long term. You have to ask yourself, do you think you are likely to need the extra protection in the next few weeks, vs do you think that boosters are arriving in mid 2022 or earlier?

Better is relative.

Replace better with cheaper.

Say product A is definitely 100% confirmed statistically significantly cheaper than B.

All studies confirm it.

Ok so product A $ 11.59 product B &$11.56

So when people say better, I want to know exactly how many percent reduction in death, Hospitalizations etc. Need to use a matrix that is useful in real life, not necessarily those 2 things, could be cost, could be anything useful in reality

GV27

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#2789761 5-Oct-2021 13:12

The Government’s online Covid-19 vaccine certificate site is currently in beta testing mode, with certificates not expected until the end of the year.

From the Stuff livestream.

Hopefully a move to L2 or inte-regional travel is not based on this being complete.

E: Something you can print, ready some time in November. So timelines alone suggest that this being done is going to play a big part in what happens next in Auckland.

That does not fill me with hope.

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#2789764 5-Oct-2021 13:20

Fred99: Example - my BIL who's an antivaxxer, not a member of an "ethnic" minority, but socially connected to a group of "alternative / non-evidenced based health fanatics". They're all close friends and I'm confident that if any of them got vaxxed and the informal "group" found out, they'd be ostracised and find themselves friendless and very lonely. That's a real thing.

I'd be willing to bet more than one person in that group has already vaxxed and not told the others.

In any case, BILs reaction indicates he is well aware he's putting other peoples lives at risk. Therefore not entirely insane. Given that realisation what on earth is his justification for that?

No need to answer if maybe it's all a bit personal. This seems like a very unusual case vs someone like Kahika Jr who would not admit the damage to others I think.

SJB

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#2789767 5-Oct-2021 13:26

Opening a travel bubble with Australia and not closing it the moment they announced they had a Delta case have proved to be very expensive mistakes.

Fred99

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#2789771 5-Oct-2021 13:30

1763 new cases reported in Victoria. That tops NSW's highest daily case numbers - which have been declining over the past week or two - as have the numbers hospitalised and in ICU also slowly trending down.

Case doubling rate in Vic is 8 days. That's going to be a big problem unless it can be stemmed.

I guess that Vic has more lockdown fatigue, but also it seems to have been consistent that it's harder to control than in similar sized Sydney, maybe climate/indoor activity related, maybe more inner suburb high density housing. Who knows...

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#2789772 5-Oct-2021 13:30

tdgeek:

I think the shock to many is the media and they know as well as anyone else that we have been on a Dec track with the vaccine and we dont want to be on lockdown all the time and so on. Buying time for the next tool, the vaccine. So, lets say the Govt said we will continue with elimination for as long as it will take, would that make everyone happy? Or we go the other way, 70% and she'll be right, tough on the rest. Both of those options would get stark criticism, but the option taken is midway, a bridge to Dec 2021.

Pity there is no election next week, then the 70% can act. 1 in 3 eligible's are not vaccinated, then there are the pre teens and young kids.

Elimination is a no go it seems, easing restrictions is also a no go. I guess it comes down to blame that we arent Covid free? Talk to those that are non compliant maybe. But we are very much a blame culture, i'll just put it down to that

I don't think I have seen anyone happy with what was announced yesterday. Those who are anti-lockdown just see this as extending that, while those pro-elimination now see the inevitable impacts on health.

In terms of both compliance and vaccination rates, while it's easy to point to groups like gangs it ignores some of the significant and systemic barriers that exist in the demographics with lower compliance and vaccination rates. For many in those groups, there is a genuine, and frankly justified, mistrust in the government. But more pertinent is that many of those have a much harder time accessing the vaccine. It's likely harder for them to get to a vaccination site as not everyone has a car, or the money for gas. Many are less likely to have the time required during opening hours, outside of work or family commitments to go (it can take a few hours, especially if you have to take the bus). While for most these wont be insurmountable, the barrier is higher and that will inevitably lead to lower numbers than in demographics where access is easier.

When it comes to compliance, I don't really think it's especially worse in lower socio-economic groups than in higher ones, just the higher ones are more likely to get away with it (for a variety of reasons).

For me, I am in the privileged position where I could duck away from work for an hour or so, jump in my car and drive to my GP. If I think about the logistics of the same exercise if I had to take public transport, it would have been much harder, taken much longer and been much less convenient. I would have had to do more planning to ensure I didn't clash with work, and probably make up the time somewhere as I would have gotten less done that day. If I worked in a retail job, I'd be at the mercy of my shifts or how flexible my boss was.

It's easy to look from a position of privilege to point a finger at a group with less and say "they need to do more". The reality is they have to do more, sometimes a lot more, to get the same outcome.

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wellygary

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#2789779 5-Oct-2021 13:36

GV27:

The Government’s online Covid-19 vaccine certificate site is currently in beta testing mode, with certificates not expected until the end of the year.

From the Stuff livestream.

Hopefully a move to L2 or inte-regional travel is not based on this being complete.

E: Something you can print, ready some time in November. So timelines alone suggest that this being done is going to play a big part in what happens next in Auckland.

That does not fill me with hope.

.... was that it..... Concerts and maybe Hospo.... but lots of fudging about individual businesses voluntarily using it (or not being allowed to) ....

lots of .. ."in coming weeks"

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#2789781 5-Oct-2021 13:37

SJB:

Opening a travel bubble with Australia and not closing it the moment they announced they had a Delta case have proved to be very expensive mistakes.

I agree the bubble should have been closed with NSW earlier than it was. The criteria the NZ government were using was, if the state went into lockdown, the bubble got paused. This happened in VIC a few weeks earlier, but as NSW was so resistant to lockdowns, the case numbers in NSW were already a lot high than the point NZ closed the border to VIC (as we locked down) and NZ eventually made the decision to close it anyway, given NSW was still at that point digging their heels in on no lockdown.

BUT.....

The travel bubble did not cause this outbreak. The fact the case originated from Sydney is just bad luck.

The leak was from MIQ. That is the system that failed - and it could have just as easily been a leak from a positive MIQ traveller from any other origin country.

There have been at least 2 subsequent leaks from MIQ following the one that triggered this outbreak. They didn't seem to get far because the country was already in lockdown and on high alert at that point, but the reality is that MIQ is not impermeable and if NZ wasn't already in lockdown one of these two subsequent leaks could have caused the same kind of outbreak.

Or the next leak. Or the next one.

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