2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2790757 6-Oct-2021 19:57

tdgeek:

Handle9:

Pretty much. There is clearly geographic spread which implies undetected spread within the currently infected area. You'd have to be naive to expect anything different to what has happened in Australia.

That makes me naive, so can you put a rough number where NZ will be in 2 weeks and 4 weeks?

If things go very well it'll be a linear increase in case numbers, if things go normally it'll be exponential.

The seven day average has roughly doubled in a week from around 15 to around 30 per day so 2 weeks would be around 120 cases per day, 4 weeks around 500 cases per day.

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#2790758 6-Oct-2021 20:00

cshwone:

@tdgeek the 7 day trend is upwards so I suspect we will be easily over 100 a day soon. It's only a matter of time.

Maybe. 100 soon then how many? 200? Not being picky. Well I mean AKL, if you are meaning nationally then yes it will grow, but it depends if you mean out of control or not

tdgeek

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#2790760 6-Oct-2021 20:14

Handle9:

If things go very well it'll be a linear increase in case numbers, if things go normally it'll be exponential.

The seven day average has roughly doubled in a week from around 15 to around 30 per day so 2 weeks would be around 120 cases per day, 4 weeks around 500 cases per day.

Ok, thanks for that. Im not trying to be picky. As I see it, and its only my opinion, our strategy differs from AUS. Earlier, and harsher. NSW blew out, VIC started an outbreak no drama and thats gone south.

In AKL we have an outbreak but a lot of non compliance is concentrated. Household and neighbours intermingling. Not great obviously, but its better than unknown cases across the city. At least we can see a reason. AKL was 30 today, we are already told that based on recent cases the contacts will be 45, thats probably over the next day or two. Kawhia, Cambridge, a few cases, there will be more from their contacts (who have now been told to self isolate) Probably the best guide is per capita. Will Waikato have a non compliance ratio similar to AKL? Possibly, although I'd say less.

My feel is that cases will be reasonably linear. The race is vaccination, the more we vaccinate (and ironically an outbreak is a great incentive), so if this race to vaccination can keep broadly in sync with more cases (as more geography is involved) then thats containment in todays news. Last week containment was that, containment. Today containment is not blowing out, so that vaccinations can run them down.

But just my feel purely from a math and our specific spreaders viewpoint

TeaLeaf

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#2790765 6-Oct-2021 20:36

Handle9:

If things go very well it'll be a linear increase in case numbers, if things go normally it'll be exponential.

The seven day average has roughly doubled in a week from around 15 to around 30 per day so 2 weeks would be around 120 cases per day, 4 weeks around 500 cases per day.

That sound on point. if we cant move forward, lock Auckland down fully to lvl4, which 2 weeks back was looking like it was going to hit 0s at some stage about now.

NSW compliance with masks looks higher, I don't know about compliance with rules, Id image similar to here, they are rolling our rapid testing. Let Auck out of lockdown and give ppl a rapid test kit, or as many as needed, if we can obtain enough. If not, front line med staff and border crossers only, so they know daily where their risk is at. Also handing out a bunch to the South Auck crew would be a good idea. No effort required if its a negative.

So msg should be 1. WEAR A MASK 2. VAX 3. TEST BFORE CROSSING BORDER etc.

TeaLeaf

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#2790767 6-Oct-2021 20:37

Anybody have any data on how many rapid ant tests are available to NZ are they something we HAVE to precure from big pharma?

Handle9

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#2790770 6-Oct-2021 20:41

TeaLeaf:

That sound on point. Auckland mayor should demand a line in the sand....

You are breaching the FUG with the silly names. It's a pretty easy way to get banned from this forum, I suggest you change it.

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#2790773 6-Oct-2021 20:46

TeaLeaf: Anybody have any data on how many rapid ant tests are available to NZ are they something we HAVE to precure from big pharma?

That would be good, but id rather stop speeding than worry about the ticket. AKA get vaxxed. The you can join the 3% and not the 97%.

TeaLeaf

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#2790779 6-Oct-2021 21:34

Handle9:
TeaLeaf:

That sound on point. Auckland mayor should demand a line in the sand....

You are breaching the FUG with the silly names. It's a pretty easy way to get banned from this forum, I suggest you change it.

Huh, its a common term of indererment Ive seen on GZ a lot, nobody had told me otherwise . You can point things out without threatening people, thats not cool either, especially with some of us on a very anxious/vulnerable line due to Covid about to rise. But back to the point, I can see this occurring rather rapidly if Auck is left in limbo to shoulder the burden beyond Xmas.

TeaLeaf

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#2790780 6-Oct-2021 21:39

tdgeek:
TeaLeaf: Anybody have any data on how many rapid ant tests are available to NZ are they something we HAVE to precure from big pharma?

That would be good, but id rather stop speeding than worry about the ticket. AKA get vaxxed. The you can join the 3% and not the 97%.

Yes there needs to some point of normality, the consessions seem to have helped, compliance not so much. Driving around, most centres seemed busy with young people. I just hope that equates to actual ppl vaxed.

Handle9

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#2790781 6-Oct-2021 21:41

TeaLeaf:
Handle9:

You are breaching the FUG with the silly names. It's a pretty easy way to get banned from this forum, I suggest you change it.

What, its a common term of indeterment, nobody had told me otherwise . You can point things out without threatning people, thats not cool either. But back to the point, I can see this occurring rather rapidly if Auck is left in limbo to shoulder the burden beyond Xmas.

If you can't be bothered reading the FUG then your bad luck. @freitasm doesn't have much patience for this sort of thing.

TeaLeaf

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#2790782 6-Oct-2021 21:44

Handle9:

You are breaching the FUG with the silly names. It's a pretty easy way to get banned from this forum, I suggest you change it.

A silly name. That is fine, but I had read it before so I assumed it was the norm. Ive read the rules, but there are nice ways to remind people of them. Either way I modified it immediately.

Back to the thread. NSW must have a lot of Rapid antigen tests, Im presuming we must have access via the same route?

Buster

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#2790783 6-Oct-2021 21:45

TeaLeaf: Anybody have any data on how many rapid ant tests are available to NZ are they something we HAVE to precure from big pharma?

Anyone that listened to question time after todays press conference should have picked up on the limitations of the rapid tests. What CH said was that the rapid test was very good at giving a positive result when it was also blatantly obvious to a casual observer that yes, this person getting a rapid test more than likely has covid, which is about three days late if you wanted to stop that person shedding covid all over the place. That's why they still prefer the current one.

Handle9

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#2790785 6-Oct-2021 21:53

Buster:

TeaLeaf: Anybody have any data on how many rapid ant tests are available to NZ are they something we HAVE to precure from big pharma?

Anyone that listened to question time after todays press conference should have picked up on the limitations of the rapid tests. What CH said was that the rapid test was very good at giving a positive result when it was also blatantly obvious to a casual observer that yes, this person getting a rapid test more than likely has covid, which is about three days late if you wanted to stop that person shedding covid all over the place. That's why they still prefer the current one.

They aren't mutually exclusive. Rapid tests are generally used in addition to PCRs not to replace them.

TeaLeaf

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#2790786 6-Oct-2021 21:54

Buster: What CH said was that the rapid test was very good at giving a positive result when it was also blatantly obvious to a casual observer that yes, this person getting a rapid test more than likely has covid, which is about three days late if you wanted to stop that person shedding covid all over the place. That's why they still prefer the current one.

Is anybody not watching them? I hope everyone is tuned in, in saying that, probably yesterday was the biggest change we are going to see outside Auckland dropping out of lockdown in a few months, hopefully.

Hmmm, did he cite the data he is using? If its 3 days late, its still a positive test, which for a symptomatic would not be useful for front line users? Likewise border crossers, given the periods apart with current testing, wouldnt daily testing still catch somebody as positive, regardless of late, in between the current test periods?

TeaLeaf

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#2790787 6-Oct-2021 21:56

Handle9:

They aren't mutually exclusive. Rapid tests are generally used in addition to PCRs not to replace them.

Bingo, that is exactly what I am saying. Both serve a purpose imo.

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