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10346 posts

Uber Geek


  #2439895 17-Mar-2020 12:15
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nathan:
GV27:

 

People are forgetting kids cannot be offloaded onto grandparents with this. Closing schools is massive, it would close down an enormous portion of the workforce. 

 



Kids can’t socially distance themselves. All the countries with the start of run away infections have closed schools

Once the virus infects ~1% social distance mechanisms aren’t necessary as they become completely ineffective

 

I do hope you're not suggesting that if/when community infection rate reaches 1% (ie 50,000 "active" cases in NZ) that we "give up".

 

Social distance mechanisms will still continue to work - if not to halt the spread - then to slow it down.

 

All epidemic modeling has to take into account social behaviour.  That's so variable and hard to measure that effectiveness of (social) controls can only be estimated in retrospect.  If you could achieve 100% social isolation for a few weeks globally, then Covid 19 would cease to exist (unless it's still active in the intermediate host species from which it came to us).

 

So the 1% figure you quote - I don't know where you came up with it - it really isn't useful, accurate, I expect it was pulled out of a hat.

 

 


 
 
 
 


959 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2439897 17-Mar-2020 12:17
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msukiwi:

 

Do Sky have any brains?

 

Given the circumstances, this is tonight's Premiere Movie! 

 

HAPPY DEATH DAY 2U (M-CLV) TUESDAY 17 MARCH8:30 PM - 10:15 PMPREMIERE MOVIESCHANNEL 030

 

Its a movie, for entertainment purposes, if you don't want to watch it, then don't.


106 posts

Master Geek

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  #2439899 17-Mar-2020 12:22
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The really difficult issue is how will the shut-out be wound down ?  If NZ measures are successful we will have no immunity but there will be some covid-19 in the wild most everywhere else.  This side of effective treatment or a vaccine, infection could spread to NZ once restrictions are relaxed.  If this happens mid-winter with seasonal flu as well it will be doubly stressing the health services.

 

I am assuming an extended period of restrictions might last to at least springtime.  We are about to find out how self-sufficient NZ really is.


10346 posts

Uber Geek


  #2439916 17-Mar-2020 12:32
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The controls being implemented to try to slow the spread of Covid 19 should be equally effective in slowing the spread of influenza. But everybody able to needs to get a flu shot anyway - we really do need a mild flu season.


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  #2439921 17-Mar-2020 12:47
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Scotdownunder:

 

The really difficult issue is how will the shut-out be wound down ?  If NZ measures are successful we will have no immunity but there will be some covid-19 in the wild most everywhere else.  This side of effective treatment or a vaccine, infection could spread to NZ once restrictions are relaxed.  If this happens mid-winter with seasonal flu as well it will be doubly stressing the health services.

 

I am assuming an extended period of restrictions might last to at least springtime.  We are about to find out how self-sufficient NZ really is.

 

 

There are reports that say that getting Covid-19 does not give immunity to reinfection. This however has not been proven.





Mike
Change Management Consultant
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

He waka eke noa


2155 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2439923 17-Mar-2020 12:48
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Courier post no longer taking signatures for deliveries.

 
 
 
 


4467 posts

Uber Geek


  #2439924 17-Mar-2020 12:49
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Mediaite: Fox & Friends Churns Out Misinformation on Coronavirus

By Aidan McLaughlin

From Fox News, the US segment called "Fox & Friends" has not been fertile ground for accurate or measured information on the coronavirus outbreak, for the same reasons that the White House has failed in measuring up to the test.

Friday, as fears in the United States start to match warnings from experts about the potential consequences of the virus, Fox & Friends continues to demonstrate its inability to accurately inform viewers about the origins and dangers of the virus as well as the precautions needed to combat its spread.

“It’s actually the safest time to fly,” said host Ainsley Earhardt on Friday morning during a Fox & Friends segment on air travel during the pandemic. “Everyone I know that’s flying right now, terminals are pretty much dead. Ghost towns. And then the planes — remember back in the day when you had next to you, a seat, possibly, empty, you could stretch out a little more? It’s like that on every flight now.”

“What do you mean?” co-host Steve Doocy asked, before noting his wife was on a flight on Thursday and “every seat was taken.”

It is not the “safest time to fly.” On Wednesday night, the State Department issued a travel advisory warning Americans to reconsider traveling abroad because of the coronavirus outbreak. President Donald Trump banned travel between the United States and Europe for non-citizens, and Americans returning to the United States will be screened and requested to self-quarantine for two weeks.

“I certainly wouldn’t get on a plane for a pleasure trip,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on CNN Thursday night. “If it was just for fun, no way would I do it.”

Later in the morning, Fox News correspondent Geraldo Rivera had words of warning to the president to take the pandemic seriously (good start). Before signing off, however, he offered some advice for the virus that has been debunked online.

“If you can’t hold your breath for 10 seconds. Everyone should do that. Hold your breath for 10 seconds. If you can hold your breath for 10 seconds then you don’t have this disease,” Rivera said.

The 10 second test is not a way to determine whether you have the coronavirus. The false claim, which has been debunked by medical experts, is one of many hoaxes about the virus that have spread through social media this week.

A far more insidious suggestion came from Jerry Falwell Jr., the prominent evangelical leader and Trump supporting president of Liberty University.

After dismissing “hype” over the coronavirus — a disease that has shut down Italy and ended American sports for the season — as a political “attempt to get Trump,” Falwell floated a truly insane conspiracy theory:

“The owner of a restaurant asked me last night. He said do you remember the North Korean leader promised us a Christmas present for America? Back in December. Could it be they got together with China and this is that present? I don’t know. But it really is something strange going on.”
...


1431 posts

Uber Geek


  #2439939 17-Mar-2020 12:54
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Scott3:
Geektastic: We won’t be accused of xenophobia.

That’s a ludicrous suggestion that only the most woke of snowflakes would suggest as the reason the border is closed.


Border is only closed to those that have been in china or Iran in the last 14 days (plus diamond princess).

It is open to everybody else. (Subject to self isolation requirement).


I've heard several people say they feel much happier now that NZ has closed its borders. As you say above our borders are open to most people subject to the self isolation requirement. I realise this will discourage a lot of tourists from coming here, but surely it would be far easier and much more effective to simply ban all people from entering NZ except those holding NZ passports. How practical really is the self isolation requirement to police? I wouldn't have confidence in this policy stopping the virus spreading here as a result of tourists visiting and not self isolating properly!

BDFL - Memuneh
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  #2439940 17-Mar-2020 12:55
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Anyone thinking there are no idiots just "jumping bail" on the self-isolation is being naive.





 

 

These links are referral codes

 

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74 posts

Master Geek


  #2439949 17-Mar-2020 13:07
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FRED99
(I do hope you're not suggesting that if/when community infection rate reaches 1% (ie 50,000 "active" cases in NZ) that we "give up".
 
Social distance mechanisms will still continue to work - if not to halt the spread - then to slow it down.
 
All epidemic modeling has to take into account social behaviour.  That's so variable and hard to measure that effectiveness of (social) controls can only be estimated in retrospect.  If you could achieve 100% social isolation for a few weeks globally, then Covid 19 would cease to exist (unless it's still active in the intermediate host species from which it came to us).
 
So the 1% figure you quote - I don't know where you came up with it - it really isn't useful, accurate, I expect it was pulled out of a hat.)

 

I disagree, I think at 50,000 we might as well at least partially give up. The best we can do at that point is ring fence the most venerable. Schools & Work places can't stay closed indefinitely,
These would have to be re-opened eventually. I understand not allowing mass gatherings, like sports events, church services etc. But you can't just shut up shop indefinitely. 
How long you can lock up the elderly for anyway, it gets to a point where I am sure many of them would rather run the gauntlet & enjoy life. Play golf then have a beer, meet friends, go to yoga classes etc.  Than
be prisoners in their own home.


634 posts

Ultimate Geek


  #2439951 17-Mar-2020 13:09
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Scotdownunder:

 

The really difficult issue is how will the shut-out be wound down ?  If NZ measures are successful we will have no immunity but there will be some covid-19 in the wild most everywhere else.  This side of effective treatment or a vaccine, infection could spread to NZ once restrictions are relaxed.  If this happens mid-winter with seasonal flu as well it will be doubly stressing the health services.

 

I am assuming an extended period of restrictions might last to at least springtime.  We are about to find out how self-sufficient NZ really is.

 

 

 

 

I guess it depends on how effective all the measures are, the more people have had it the quicker they will be lifted/relaxed. I can't see it happening but, what happens if the measures are really effective and only a small % of the population gets the virus? Do the measures stay in effect for a year until a vaccine is ready?  


20832 posts

Uber Geek

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  #2439954 17-Mar-2020 13:22
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dogstar001:

 


How long you can lock up the elderly for anyway, it gets to a point where I am sure many of them would rather run the gauntlet & enjoy life. Play golf then have a beer, meet friends, go to yoga classes etc.  Than
be prisoners in their own home.

 

 

That is not self isolation. Go for a walk, cycle, run. Alone. See someone else, just step aside 2+ metres and say hi. Words of Dr Bloomfield on one announcement. In your example, the elderly can play golf, have a beer, sit with friends, just keep clear of each other.


10346 posts

Uber Geek


  #2439957 17-Mar-2020 13:28
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MikeB4:

 

Scotdownunder:

 

The really difficult issue is how will the shut-out be wound down ?  If NZ measures are successful we will have no immunity but there will be some covid-19 in the wild most everywhere else.  This side of effective treatment or a vaccine, infection could spread to NZ once restrictions are relaxed.  If this happens mid-winter with seasonal flu as well it will be doubly stressing the health services.

 

I am assuming an extended period of restrictions might last to at least springtime.  We are about to find out how self-sufficient NZ really is.

 

 

There are reports that say that getting Covid-19 does not give immunity to reinfection. This however has not been proven.

 

 

There's good evidence that resistance to coronaviruses doesn't last long term, but the reported cases of supposed reinfection are probably explained by the infection not having been eliminated.  As we know, the rRT-PCR tests are far from perfect, false negatives are common, it takes a long time to recover.

 

There has already been one study carried out on Rhesus Monkeys using the SARS-CoV2 virus, they couldn't be reinfected after recovery. (yes I know - that's an animal trial - but it's a reasonably good indication)


15206 posts

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  #2439958 17-Mar-2020 13:31
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MadEngineer: Courier post no longer taking signatures for deliveries.

 

"no longer" ? I haven't been asked to sign a 'signature required' delivery in a very long time. 😀





Mike
Change Management Consultant
The views stated in my posts are my personal views and not that of any other organisation.

 

He waka eke noa


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