2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2797609 19-Oct-2021 14:12

tdgeek:

It comes to IF people follow the rules. With many of the cases unlinked (no scanning I assume), and also households galore, yes its out of shape. Milehigh quoted its a race to the health system but IMHO its a race for vaccinations which will help the health system markedly. But the theme here recently seems to be that its not really a non compliance issue its about other issues.

It might be no scanning but not necessarily by those that have been identified with Covid. It could be that the missing links aren't symptomatic/haven't been tested yet.

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mattwnz

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#2797615 19-Oct-2021 14:18

JPNZ:

From the press release..

There are 94 new community cases of COVID-19 to report today; 87 in Auckland and seven in Waikato. As of 10am, 41 of these cases are linked – 26 of which are household contacts – and 53 remain unlinked, with investigations continuing to help determine their connection to the outbreak.

So basically triple digits as a percentage won't be getting tested.

Is the contact tracing now overwhelmed if they can't link this number of cases? Didn't they say last year that contact tracing could handle 1000's of cases a day? Contact tracing is still going to be very important, especially where truck drivers maybe crossing the border, as it increases the risk to the rest of NZ. Maybe they need to look at switching trucks and drivers at the border?

MileHighKiwi

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#2797618 19-Oct-2021 14:22

Apparently we can only manage 180 per day, from Carolyn McElnay at MOH. She also said at 140 cases per day MIQ will be overwhelmed.

wellygary

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#2797619 19-Oct-2021 14:23

mattwnz:

JPNZ:

From the press release..

There are 94 new community cases of COVID-19 to report today; 87 in Auckland and seven in Waikato. As of 10am, 41 of these cases are linked – 26 of which are household contacts – and 53 remain unlinked, with investigations continuing to help determine their connection to the outbreak.

So basically triple digits as a percentage won't be getting tested.

Is the contact tracing now overwhelmed if they can't link this number of cases? Didn't they say last year that contact tracing could handle 1000's of cases a day? Contact tracing is still going to be very important, especially where truck drivers maybe crossing the border, as it increases the risk to the rest of NZ. Maybe they need to look at switching trucks and drivers at the border?

Contact Tracing went out the window last week, MIQ isolation for cases and close contact has ( or will) go this week... The numbers are just overwhelming,

Auckland is in for 6 weeks of Hell while they ride the curve and hope it bends when they hit 90% fully dosed...

"Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield told Mike Hosking the main priority now is containment, rather than contact tracing.
"At this stage, we're not putting too much resource into trying to find where the linkage is. The key thing is, of course, get these cases isolated as quickly as possible and find any contacts.""
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/dr-ashley-bloomfield-priority-is-now-containment-rather-than-contact-tracing/

tdgeek

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#2797621 19-Oct-2021 14:24

Technofreak:

It might be no scanning but not necessarily by those that have been identified with Covid. It could be that the missing links aren't symptomatic/haven't been tested yet.

Ok, I assumed no scanning means no links to current LOI's, and new LOI's that others had been to. If the missing links aren't symptomatic or tested then they are invisible to all Aucklanders . And by the time a link shows up, its old history

ezbee

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#2797624 19-Oct-2021 14:31

The spinoff LOI page has stopped with the coloured timeseries dots and you don't get details on hover.
I was hoping any update would improve zoom, but this seems retrograde.
Maybe its too many dots for active page to handle.
Its all "I see Red".
https://thespinoff.co.nz/business/10-10-2021/interactive-map-dates-added-exposure-days/

Surrounded as we are with more Red Dots than a Farmers sale.
My Wife got the feeling in her pharmacy visit normally friendly staff were quite scared.

Could just be projection.
When you look at it apart from supermarkets, and dairies, pharmacies appear regularly in LOI.
Laundromats are a bit more of a worry as people would hang around for a while I expect.
Unless you are in Raglan where its the 'Herbal Dispensary' :-)

vexxxboy

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#2797677 19-Oct-2021 14:38

mattwnz:

Is the contact tracing now overwhelmed if they can't link this number of cases? Didn't they say last year that contact tracing could handle 1000's of cases a day? Contact tracing is still going to be very important, especially where truck drivers maybe crossing the border, as it increases the risk to the rest of NZ. Maybe they need to look at switching trucks and drivers at the border?

as i said before they are not going all out trying to link cases so they will rise

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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mattwnz

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#2797686 19-Oct-2021 15:07

vexxxboy:

mattwnz:

Is the contact tracing now overwhelmed if they can't link this number of cases? Didn't they say last year that contact tracing could handle 1000's of cases a day? Contact tracing is still going to be very important, especially where truck drivers maybe crossing the border, as it increases the risk to the rest of NZ. Maybe they need to look at switching trucks and drivers at the border?

as i said before they are not going all out trying to link cases so they will rise

But why wouldn't they, as wouldn't that slow down the growth of cases, and identify additional POIs? They are still using contact tracing in countries living with covid. They would be different staff doing this anyway. Have they actually come out and said they are now overwhelmed, and that is the reason for it?

Technofreak

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#2797688 19-Oct-2021 15:08

tdgeek:

Technofreak:

It might be no scanning but not necessarily by those that have been identified with Covid. It could be that the missing links aren't symptomatic/haven't been tested yet.

Ok, I assumed no scanning means no links to current LOI's, and new LOI's that others had been to. If the missing links aren't symptomatic or tested then they are invisible to all Aucklanders . And by the time a link shows up, its old history

It's probably a bit of both.

My assumption has been when they say not linked is they saying they have no direct link for that case to another case. Which likely means there's probably people they don't know about roaming around spreading the virus. If that is the case, the more unlinked case you have, the more the virus is spreading in the community. Scary from a numbers point of view.

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Scott3

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#2797691 19-Oct-2021 15:13

While today's 94 cases are record setting, they don't come as to much of a shock. Triple digit case numbers were widely expected this week, and yesterdays number (60) was massive for a Monday announcement (testing volumes are lower on Sundays).

Biggest news of the day is widely reported 90% fully vaccinated target (of eligible Auckland) for Auckland to open up. Nice to have some guidance, on the threshold, but this is going to take a while. I am picking roughly 4 weeks after we hit 93% eligible first doses.

Eligible Auckland population is about 1.44m, and we have done 1.27m first doses. To get to 93% first doses will require about 70,000 more first doses. Yesterday roughly 3000 were delivered. multiply by 6.5 (sunday numbers are typically quite low) and we get 19.5k per week. so 3.5 weeks to reach 93% first doses. + 4 weeks for the 2nd doses to follow, takes us to the start to approx 10th December... so this isn't happening quickly...

And all the above assumed maintaining current first vaccination rates (and improving pass through ratio to get second dosed from the current 95%). This is going to be a big ask without getting a serious stick out.

Also there are some logical / ethical issues with the idea of allowing free travel based on Aucklands vaccination rate. If 90% of eligible is needed to keep the virus in check, It must be going to end poorly when we spread it nationwide, and it finds places with low vaccination rates like Murapara.

Just not sure that social licence for lock downs in Auckland will last that long. There is only so long the fully vaccinated will tolerate wait for the laggards to get it done.

Next Bit of big news is the Start of doing home quarantine for the confirmed infected. This pretty much ends the moral justification for MIQ for international arrivals. If we are happy to trust infected people to self quarantine, Why would we not give the same opportunity to those who are coming from overseas (That have a low risk of carrying covid-19, thanks to double vaccination, pre departure testing etc.) - But dealing with international arrivals bound for level 2 locations could still be an issue.

Recommending 3rd primary doses for those with compromised immune systems is significant too. Sounds like the call on booster shots is just 1 - 2 weeks away too. Fairly important as some of our people at highest risk of exposure soon will be around the 6 month mark from their second dose.

Looking internationally the path out of this is fairly clear. We just need NSW like vaccination levels, which they were able to achieve via their vaccine pass system.

wellygary:

Pretty much this... but it will be earlier than December,

Auckland are currently 89% 1st and 71% 2nd , 2nd jabs are rising by over 1% per day, and will likely hit 85% by early November....

BUT there is a huge problem with the MoH Vaccine passport.. Its going to be a month late

"From the end of November, you will be able to download digital vaccination and COVID-19 test certificates for use in New Zealand and overseas."
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-requesting-proof-vaccination

This is a big issue.

The time for this to be live is now. We should already be mandating proof of vaccination for anybody crossing the Auckland border.

It won't be ready for the likes of the big law firm's 1st November requirement - So either will need to defer, or tell all their clients to get the MOH letter which takes 10 working days to turn up before they visit their office.

Apparently an update on this is going to be in the Friday announcement - Given that it has already been announced to be only valid for the fully vaccinated, so clarity around how much life is going to suck for those without the pass would motivate many to get their first dose, so they can get their second dose prior to, or immediately when it comes into effect.

mattwnz

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#2797693 19-Oct-2021 15:19

Technofreak:

tdgeek:

Ok, I assumed no scanning means no links to current LOI's, and new LOI's that others had been to. If the missing links aren't symptomatic or tested then they are invisible to all Aucklanders . And by the time a link shows up, its old history

It's probably a bit of both.

My assumption has been when they say not linked is they saying they have no direct link for that case to another case. Which likely means there's probably people they don't know about roaming around spreading the virus. If that is the case, the more unlinked case you have, the more the virus is spreading in the community. Scary from a numbers point of view.

Looks like it is exponential growth now, and 'widespread' community transmission, and essentially triple digits. Despite one of the reasons for dropping from level 4 to 3 being that there was no 'widespread' community transmission. There must be a lot of cases who don't want to be tested as they don't want to go into MIQ.IMO that was always a flaw with the system, as it disincentives people getting tested that need to work.

tdgeek

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#2797694 19-Oct-2021 15:19

Technofreak:

It's probably a bit of both.

My assumption has been when they say not linked is they saying they have no direct link for that case to another case. Which likely means there's probably people they don't know about roaming around spreading the virus. If that is the case, the more unlinked case you have, the more the virus is spreading in the community. Scary from a numbers point of view.

That's what I see. I dont really see a valid reason for the so many non compliers

But, many are over it, the problem is to get over it you comply and reduce it, but its maybe easier to just forget about it and make your own freedom. Dont want to go to MIQ? That's a biggie, thats pretty valid. Shame in getting infected? Maybe. Got jabbed? Safe now so enjoy.... Young and able? Safe so enjoy. I guess given that previous outbreaks worked, its probably just covid fatigue

mattwnz

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#2797695 19-Oct-2021 15:24

tdgeek:

Technofreak:

It's probably a bit of both.

My assumption has been when they say not linked is they saying they have no direct link for that case to another case. Which likely means there's probably people they don't know about roaming around spreading the virus. If that is the case, the more unlinked case you have, the more the virus is spreading in the community. Scary from a numbers point of view.

That's what I see. I dont really see a valid reason for the so many non compliers

But, many are over it, the problem is to get over it you comply and reduce it, but its maybe easier to just forget about it and make your own freedom. Dont want to go to MIQ? That's a biggie, thats pretty valid. Shame in getting infected? Maybe. Got jabbed? Safe now so enjoy.... Young and able? Safe so enjoy. I guess given that previous outbreaks worked, its probably just covid fatigue

People who are jabbed can still get it, it reduces the chances of catching it by about 50% according to the PM a few weeks ago, but also reduces the chance of a bad dose significantly

tdgeek

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#2797698 19-Oct-2021 15:32

mattwnz:

People who are jabbed can still get it, it reduces the chances of catching it by about 50% according to the PM a few weeks ago, but also reduces the chance of a bad dose significantly

Definitely.

Given we are losing the vaccine race, a positive way to look at this is there will be two parts on NZ. The 90% "should" be fine, Vaccine card to enjoy life again. The 10% will probably all get infected before long, most will be fine,. some/many will get sick, some will die, but what can you do? Apart from try to convince them. But for the 90% of us, life will be semi ok. The cases we will read about will be unvaccinated and vaccinated but the former will do it tougher, but what can you do?

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#2797701 19-Oct-2021 15:44

MileHighKiwi:

Its clear the game is a toss up between protecting hospitals and managing the freedom of the majority who are vaccinated.

Some of the vaccinated will need hospital treatment. If they can’t get treatment because hospitals are overloaded….

Vaccination is not 100% protection. From what I read looks like 2% of vaccinated will need hospital assistance, 10% of unvaccinated. Most vaccinated people will only need Oxygen and survive if can get it. If no treatment another story.

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