2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2803635 29-Oct-2021 14:19

ezbee:

The number of first doses had dropped 10,908 , but I note that yesterdays had a 17% increase to 12,780
Reaction to Christchurch outbreak ? Something or Psychology Fangirls and Boys to chew on in this pandemic.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#total-vaccinations

The former. It doubled yesterday down here. And they put on another 2500 walk in slots after the early announcement.

And then when they interview them, thats what it took. Another outbreak.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126810020/covid19-cantabrians-spurred-into-getting-vaccinated-following-news-of-community-cases

A few of us here have presumed it will take direct influence or an outbreak to make people budge.

“We knew it was coming... I just didn't think it was going to come this quick.”

“If it wasn't in Christchurch I wouldn't be getting it done yet, I sort of thought while it was in the North Island I'm not going to worry about it.”

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nzkiwiman

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#2803758 29-Oct-2021 15:50

Batman: I dropped in at a rural Otago restaurant / bar last weekend.

I walked in with a mask and nobody wore a mask.

As I passed a table of a large family one lady commented loudly "who would wear a mask that's such a stupid thing to do". Verbatim.

I had similar experiences in Ranfurly and Cromwell at the start of the month "get that f88king mask off before I serve you"

wellygary

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#2803761 29-Oct-2021 16:01

ezbee:

The number of first doses had dropped 10,908 , but I note that yesterdays had a 17% increase to 12,780
Reaction to Christchurch outbreak ? Something for Psychology Fangirls and Boys to chew on.
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#total-vaccinations

Yeah, but moving from 10- 12K, while good, isn't really going to change the dial the much in terms of first doses, 10.5K is about .025% while 13K is .30%

The more interesting metric I'm watch is Auckland Metro 2nd doses which are cratering ,

The gain in the past 7 days was 4.5%, a week ago it was 7.3% and two weeks ago it was ~10%..

... to get the 79% up to 90% will require at least 2 more weeks at the current rate, but if it keeps falling it might well into mid November, ( + Counties M BDHB is probably at least another week after that....

MikeB4

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#2803762 29-Oct-2021 16:02

nzkiwiman:

I had similar experiences in Ranfurly and Cromwell at the start of the month "get that f88king mask off before I serve you"

That would be a buying decision made easy, I would walk out.

wellygary

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#2803764 29-Oct-2021 16:12

The other big question floating around is "have we peaked"??

Looking at the daily case chart it appears we are at an inflection point.....

Either we have come off the latest retraction and are going to push higher in the next few days,

Given that today's 125 is less than one week ago 129,... we might be topping out.. (mystery cases certainly have stopped rising) .. but I don't know if this is a good lead indicator )

https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/27-10-2021/the-spinoff-covid-tracker/

The next 2-3 days will tell if this are about to get a whole lot worse, or stabilise and gradually improve...

quickymart

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#2803775 29-Oct-2021 16:40

Just finished re-watching Contagion (already seen it on Sky, but that was many years ago). Very fitting viewing for our times.

kyhwana2

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#2803792 29-Oct-2021 17:43

Well that's not good:

https://www.kanivatonga.nz/2021/10/covid-19-delta-variant-one-case-confirmed-in-tonga/

A person has tested positive for Covid-19 in Tonga after arriving from Christchurch, New Zealand on Wednesday night, MEIDECC CEO has just confirmed this to Kaniva News this afternoon.

EDIT: Confirmed: https://matangitonga.to/2021/10/29/pm-confirms-tongas-first-positive-covid-19-test-miq

Batman

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#2803809 29-Oct-2021 17:57

nzkiwiman:
Batman: I dropped in at a rural Otago restaurant / bar last weekend.

I walked in with a mask and nobody wore a mask.

As I passed a table of a large family one lady commented loudly "who would wear a mask that's such a stupid thing to do". Verbatim.

I had similar experiences in Ranfurly and Cromwell at the start of the month "get that f88king mask off before I serve you"

Lost for words...

Technofreak

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#2803877 29-Oct-2021 21:00

kyhwana2:

Well that's not good:

https://www.kanivatonga.nz/2021/10/covid-19-delta-variant-one-case-confirmed-in-tonga/

A person has tested positive for Covid-19 in Tonga after arriving from Christchurch, New Zealand on Wednesday night, MEIDECC CEO has just confirmed this to Kaniva News this afternoon.

EDIT: Confirmed: https://matangitonga.to/2021/10/29/pm-confirms-tongas-first-positive-covid-19-test-miq

Only 32% of the population is vaccinated. I guess that figure may not represent all islands. The main areas may have very high vaccination rates, and it's the outer areas with very low rates.

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mattwnz

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#2803878 29-Oct-2021 21:09

wellygary:
The other big question floating around is "have we peaked"??

Looking at the daily case chart it appears we are at an inflection point.....

Either we have come off the latest retraction and are going to push higher in the next few days,

Or

Given that today's 125 is less than one week ago 129,... we might be topping out.. (mystery cases certainly have stopped rising) .. but I don't know if this is a good lead indicator )

https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/27-10-2021/the-spinoff-covid-tracker/

The next 2-3 days will tell if this are about to get a whole lot worse, or stabilise and gradually improve...

People just aren’t bothering to get tested imo, probably because they don’t want to end up on MIQ. This has been highlighted by a story a few days ago stating that a high percentage of those that are being tested in some areas are testing positive. One of the top experts also highlighted that there will be some people who have symptoms but won’t be getting tested.

cokemaster

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#2803897 29-Oct-2021 21:17

nzkiwiman:

<<Batmans quote>>

Lost for words...

Seconded. There are two hard truths that are coming for folks like that:

A. Auckland cannot and will not be in lockdown forever. Sooner or later, Covid will be in a community near you.

B. Whilst there is legitimate criticism of the Government and Ministries preparations (the discussion of which belongs in the politics thread), one thing is certain: the populace has been very lax when it comes contact tracing, enabling bluetooth on the covid tracker, masking, vaccinations (the holdouts and antivaxers) and other practices. Peoples unwillingness to take part in precautions will mean, when Covid comes to your community... it will come good and hard.

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Technofreak

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#2803982 29-Oct-2021 23:44

I might have missed it. Is there any data on where most of the community transmissions are occurring?

Household?
Work place?
Supermarket?
Other?

I realise factors like where mask wearing is required etc will skew the results to some extent, but it would be interesting to know where the higher risk areas were.

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Oblivian

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#2803984 29-Oct-2021 23:54

If you mean from a point when we were 8 cases a day and blew out to 130 like we are now. Households

Mixing with other households

End.

mattwnz

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#2803992 30-Oct-2021 01:59

cokemaster:

nzkiwiman:

<<Batmans quote>>

Lost for words...

Seconded. There are two hard truths that are coming for folks like that:

A. Auckland cannot and will not be in lockdown forever. Sooner or later, Covid will be in a community near you.

B. Whilst there is legitimate criticism of the Government and Ministries preparations (the discussion of which belongs in the politics thread), one thing is certain: the populace has been very lax when it comes contact tracing, enabling bluetooth on the covid tracker, masking, vaccinations (the holdouts and antivaxers) and other practices. Peoples unwillingness to take part in precautions will mean, when Covid comes to your community... it will come good and hard.

I think part of the problem is that we are a victim of our success in eliminating covid last year. So we haven't seen the death that has been caused by Covid overseas, and some of these flouters just don't care about anyone but themselves. I have also heard many people say that Covid has only killed 28 people in the last year, and questioning how bad it actually is, when we know that it kills a lot of people overseas. It is only after people get sick or they see local cases, do people start to do the right thing again, but it then levels off again. This is proven by the spike in scanning, or spikes in vaccinations after a local case is detected in an area. I wonder if it also partly the 'ambulance at the bottom of the cliff thing' that NZ is good at. We are going to see quite a few daily deaths from covid in 2022, and hospitals full, and I don't think people realise this will happen. Long covid is also going to be a problem. But it will largely be an illness amongst the unvaccinated. We just have to look at other highly vaccinated countries to see how NZs numbers could look. I think we are going to be playing the traffic light game for a long time.

tdgeek

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#2804000 30-Oct-2021 07:57

mattwnz:

We are going to see quite a few daily deaths from covid in 2022, and hospitals full, and I don't think people realise this will happen. Long covid is also going to be a problem. But it will largely be an illness amongst the unvaccinated. We just have to look at other highly vaccinated countries to see how NZs numbers could look. I think we are going to be playing the traffic light game for a long time.

Hospital rates are declining, while cases get added daily. Vaccination is the reason. Whatever daily negativeness exists in this thread, our overall cases and deaths are low in the last 18 months, and while too many people were non compliant, we are still ahead of the case/death/hospital numbers, and as vaxxes get added daily, that will continue to be in our favour. Had compliance been similar to the past it would be a lot better, but at least we are ahead

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300438671/covid19-delta-outbreak-hospitalisation-rate-falling-but-who-has-needed-hospital-care

Victoria has eased back now

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300441835/covid19-australia-victoria-scraps-daily-presser-as-restrictions-ease

It comes as Victoria recorded 1656 new locally acquired Covid-19 cases and 10 deaths on Friday, ahead of restrictions easing at 6pm.

Their target is 80% of eligibles fully vaccinated which will occur this weekend. Lets see how it goes.

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