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quickymart
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  #2805561 1-Nov-2021 16:20
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Thank Christ, that's something. I can't watch the stream, but did they mention anything about the schools?

 

Next week as in when? Monday? Tuesday? Wednesday? etc




GV27
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  #2805563 1-Nov-2021 16:21
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quickymart:

 

Thank Christ, that's something. I can't watch the stream, but did they mention anything about the schools?

 

Next week as in when? Monday? Tuesday? Wednesday? etc

 

 

As in 9/11. 

 

So it's really an extension for a week, even though it sounds like a step down. 




kiwiharry
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  #2805569 1-Nov-2021 16:39
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quickymart:

Thank Christ, that's something. I can't watch the stream, but did they mention anything about the schools?


Next week as in when? Monday? Tuesday? Wednesday? etc



Tuesday 09 November at 11:59pm.

Schools - if you talking about primary or intermediate then isn't that only at Level 2 and not in any of the L3 steps?




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Reanalyse
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#2805573 1-Nov-2021 16:44
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Reanalyse:

 

cokemaster: I suspect Auckland won’t get the rose in this afternoons screening.
Current bet from me is: no change to alert levels or “steps”.

Suspect we’ll only see deescalation of alert levels at end of November or failing that, mid December.
Part of me suspects Auckland might be locked down longer but I suspect that will be political suicide and thus, Auckland gets freedoms at the expense of public health.

Keen to get others thoughts on how it’s going to play out.

 

Suspect another "kick for touch", staying in current L3 for another week. But as an Aucklander can see the pressure building in my own family and the neighbours, as all sick of keeping to the restrictions.

 

Level 4 will not happen, and much more dragging on of the current Level 3 restrictions (beyond another week) may be political suicide. 

 

 

 

 

Thought that might happen


alexx
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  #2805575 1-Nov-2021 17:01
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tdgeek:

 

Jas777:

 

Does the fact NSW numbers are dropping even though the restrictions are less mean anything to the people here?

 

 

1. They've had a LOT of cases, and therefore more immunity

 

2. Vaccinnes are ahead of ours

 

3. I assume they use a vaccine card, allowing more seperation from the vaccinated (who are still at risk)

 

4. How long was lockdown?  Cases?  Deaths?

 

 

 

It's not like for like.

 

 

The previous cases are often an underestimate (some self isolate and don't report) and those previous infections are often those who are the most mobile, so it's probably a bigger factor than the numbers alone would indicate.

 

It will be interesting to see how some of these countries and states go long term. Denmark has fully vaccinated about 76% of total population (not just 76% of eligible) and now they have close to 20,000 active cases and close to 60 deaths in the last month. This is a country that has already had over 380,000 cases and lost 2,500 in earlier waves of Covid.





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Batman

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wellygary
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  #2805635 1-Nov-2021 17:21
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Batman: Not what some want to hear but it will be ok, it's our turn

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300443300/covid19-nz-official-modelling-suggests-1400-cases-a-week-by-end-of-month-21-hospitalisations-a-day

 

1400 per week, isn't too far off where we are hitting now,  160*7 is 1100, 

 

Over the last week we were about 800...


Oblivian
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  #2805644 1-Nov-2021 17:43
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But a single big scary 4 digit number look scarier than individual scary 3 digit numbers we see at lunch time and then forget 2 days later

tdgeek
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  #2805697 1-Nov-2021 19:08
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alexx:

 

The previous cases are often an underestimate (some self isolate and don't report) and those previous infections are often those who are the most mobile, so it's probably a bigger factor than the numbers alone would indicate.

 

It will be interesting to see how some of these countries and states go long term. Denmark has fully vaccinated about 76% of total population (not just 76% of eligible) and now they have close to 20,000 active cases and close to 60 deaths in the last month. This is a country that has already had over 380,000 cases and lost 2,500 in earlier waves of Covid.

 

 

It seems to me that most countries opened up early with lesser % vaccinated. If we get as high as we can, we could do a lot better. When did Vaccine ID's come into play? Probably not that long ago? 


tdgeek
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  #2805701 1-Nov-2021 19:23
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alexx:

 

 

 

It will be interesting to see how some of these countries and states go long term. Denmark has fully vaccinated about 76% of total population (not just 76% of eligible) and now they have close to 20,000 active cases and close to 60 deaths in the last month. This is a country that has already had over 380,000 cases and lost 2,500 in earlier waves of Covid.

 

 

In Norways its 87% of adults. NZ should be 90% plus of 12+. Unlike them we will still have measures, and Vaccine cert for the whole "open up" sequence. It does mean that we need to aim for vaccination continually, lock out unvaccinated as and where possible (safety and incentive) and still maintain measures. Being the last kid off the block again, hopefully continues to buy the time that means we just have more case, and not blowing out like Norway and Denmark, and pretty much everywhere else. 


mattwnz
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  #2805706 1-Nov-2021 19:39
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wellygary:

Batman: Not what some want to hear but it will be ok, it's our turn

https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300443300/covid19-nz-official-modelling-suggests-1400-cases-a-week-by-end-of-month-21-hospitalisations-a-day


1400 per week, isn't too far off where we are hitting now,  160*7 is 1100, 


Over the last week we were about 800...



160 in a weekend day is high, so maybe more like 200 on a weekday. Plus people are not getting tested Because they don't want to end up in miq. But I predict hitting 200 official cases this week.

Oblivian
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  #2805708 1-Nov-2021 19:48
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mattwnz: Plus people are not getting tested Because they don't want to end up in miq. But I predict hitting 200 official cases this week.

 

Didn't you see the previous charts. There are more at home than MiQ these days. You aren't locked up for any old reason.


alexx
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  #2805714 1-Nov-2021 20:09
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tdgeek:

 

alexx:

 

The previous cases are often an underestimate (some self isolate and don't report) and those previous infections are often those who are the most mobile, so it's probably a bigger factor than the numbers alone would indicate.

 

It will be interesting to see how some of these countries and states go long term. Denmark has fully vaccinated about 76% of total population (not just 76% of eligible) and now they have close to 20,000 active cases and close to 60 deaths in the last month. This is a country that has already had over 380,000 cases and lost 2,500 in earlier waves of Covid.

 

 

It seems to me that most countries opened up early with lesser % vaccinated. If we get as high as we can, we could do a lot better. When did Vaccine ID's come into play? Probably not that long ago? 

 

 

From my understanding, Denmark removed all domestic restrictions on 10th September.
It appears that at that stage, they were 74% double vaccinated and 76% with one shot.

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=NZL+AUS+USA+GBR+IRL+JPN+PRT+ESP+DNK+NOR

 

Right now we are at 63% and 74% respectively:
https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data#total-vaccinations

 

So they started with a higher vaccination rate than we have right now, and as mentioned they already had more than 380,000 cases and lost 2,500 of their most vulnerable in earlier waves. If we opened up right now, I wouldn't expect a better outcome than Denmark are having right now and probably quite a bit worse.

 

Norway might be doing a little better, but their opening up date was 6-October and their case numbers might still be rising. There is always a lag between infection, ICU and Covid deaths, so we might not have enough information to judge.





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quickymart
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  #2805739 1-Nov-2021 21:13
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kiwiharry:
Tuesday 09 November at 11:59pm.

Schools - if you talking about primary or intermediate then isn't that only at Level 2 and not in any of the L3 steps?

 

Primary, yes...ah crap. I was hoping they would go back on November 15 as someone suggested previously, but I guess that won't be happening now :(

 

Edit: Actually...I knew I'd seen it somewhere:

 

https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/01-11-2021/the-monday-explainer-waikato-and-auckland-to-move-to-step-two-level-three/

 

What about schools – can primary kids return at step two?

 

That’s happening separately to all this step carry-on, and all going to plan, primary schools will reopen on November 15.


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