2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2411675 2-Feb-2020 19:28

Batman:

tdgeek:

Batman:

Beccara:

There's strong evidence that the Virus was seen as early as Dec 12th. The China stats are troublesome to say the least

this guy details the real timeline. also doctors were arrested for reporting the outbreak in december. also anyone who posts news about the outbreak have also been arrested.

Can you confirm its the real timelime?

Can anyone?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak#1%E2%80%9318_December_2019

Well, you did, the "real" timeline. All others are fake?

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gzt

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#2411695 2-Feb-2020 19:57

Batman:
tdgeek:

Can you confirm its the real timelime?

Can anyone?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak#1%E2%80%9318_December_2019

The Wikipedia article like Batman earlier also makes a claim that doctors were arrested just prior to the official announcement. But.. the link provided in the Wikipedia article at this moment does not confirm or even refer to any arrests. At present I don't have time to pick through the edit history to figure out if it's just someone inserting..

Beccara

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#2411718 2-Feb-2020 21:05

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzmbiUyu7eo

Live streaming "breaking quarantine" Dudes trying to get back into Russia

Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated

Fred99

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#2411723 2-Feb-2020 21:18

tdgeek:

10,000 cases and the fatality rate probably is within probability variance. Good day, bad day, and the variance in medical care across nations. Although SARS was more deadly, this one is spreading more.

I'll correct what I said maybe a bit hastily - the figures do probably show a trend - a decline from the exponential growth rate, but there's still more new cases, suspected cases, and deaths being reported each day than the day before. So the control measures might be reducing the growth rate a little - but there's a long way to go.

Batman

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#2411734 2-Feb-2020 22:17

gzt:

The Wikipedia article like Batman earlier also makes a claim that doctors were arrested just prior to the official announcement. But.. the link provided in the Wikipedia article at this moment does not confirm or even refer to any arrests. At present I don't have time to pick through the edit history to figure out if it's just someone inserting..

https://www.mothership.sg/2020/02/wuhan-doctor-whistleblower/

gzt

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#2411737 2-Feb-2020 22:48

And..

CCTV: Zeng Guang, Chief Scientist of Epidemiology of China CDC: These eight people are respectable. They are worried about the country and the people, and they have certain opinions. As a public health expert, I hope to talk to them And hope to learn something from them. "

Original language and interview video in link.

Edit: http://m.news.cctv.com/2020/01/30/ARTI1rCZgMyUfFOYEN9nTwwk200130.shtml

tdgeek

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#2411759 3-Feb-2020 07:14

Fred99:

I'll correct what I said maybe a bit hastily - the figures do probably show a trend - a decline from the exponential growth rate, but there's still more new cases, suspected cases, and deaths being reported each day than the day before. So the control measures might be reducing the growth rate a little - but there's a long way to go.

Yes, so many variables. Intermixed with what is bound to be understatements, intentional or not. What I'm hopeful of is they create a vaccine, and while its expanding more than SARS the lower fatality is a positive. But what if it was more deadly than SARS and its more transmissable, as it is? That would turn the world on its feet

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#2411770 3-Feb-2020 08:07

The two items are fairly exclusive, A virus that transmits well but is highly lethal will burn it's self out somewhat quickly. Measles has a fatality rate of 0.2% typically but a very high R0 number of 11-18. Ebola kills upto 90% but it's R0 is only 2. The odd balls out to this are virus that sit for VERY long periods of time whilst being transmissible, Outside of HIV i'm not aware of any other examples

It's not in the virus interest to kill the host, Without the host the virus can't spread, The ones that tend to kill us well tend to also not be evolved for human's but in the species they are evolved for kill very few, SARS/MERS/SwineFlu etc etc. The closer virus get to be adapted to the human body the mortality rate tends to drop into the 0.x% range

Beccara

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#2411771 3-Feb-2020 08:18

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd reports of H5N1 caused bird culling going on

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-02/china-culls-18-000-chickens-after-h5n1-bird-flu-cases-in-hunan

Sidestep

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#2411773 3-Feb-2020 08:35

tdgeek:

Yes, so many variables. Intermixed with what is bound to be understatements, intentional or not. What I'm hopeful of is they create a vaccine, and while its expanding more than SARS the lower fatality is a positive. But what if it was more deadly than SARS and its more transmissable, as it is? That would turn the world on its feet

That's why this is a vital test run for the real thing. Estimates are 6 months to a year to produce a vaccine.

If this virus with it's apparent velocity, had the mortality rate of MERS we'd be scrambling to shut the world down. This comparitive chart by Reuters is interesting.
And if you compare this coronovirus to the normal flu..

0.05% of those who’ve had flu this winter season in the United States have died from it, that's close to 8000 deaths, in a country with vaccines and decent health care.
Annually the flu results in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and 290,000 to 650,000 respiratory deaths around the world..

Run the same calculation at say – 2% death rate and that'd be 300,000 deaths in the US alone with half the flu season yet to run..

So this coronavirus is scary but not terrifying. That one's still to come.

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#2411792 3-Feb-2020 09:08

Sounds like the SAR's/HIV antiviral treatment protocol is working well in Thailand

Geektastic

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#2411794 3-Feb-2020 09:23

Compared to the 1918 Spanish Flu death toll of 20-50 million, this one is so far reasonably insignificant. Especially when you consider that there was far less international travel in 1918. Also less vaccination as well though.
The planet is trying to reduce the human population, I think.

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#2411817 3-Feb-2020 10:23

Geektastic: The planet is trying to reduce the human population, I think.

No, it's just our usual panic to arrest our anthropogenic headlong rush to destruction.

networkn

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#2411826 3-Feb-2020 10:34

Geektastic: Compared to the 1918 Spanish Flu death toll of 20-50 million, this one is so far reasonably insignificant. Especially when you consider that there was far less international travel in 1918. Also less vaccination as well though.
The planet is trying to reduce the human population, I think.

Let's not try to introduce logic to combat peoples inclination to panic! :)

If you wear a tinfoil hat, you might subscribe to the concept it's not the planet, but world governments that are "practising" in order to drop the population of the earth significantly.

MikeB4

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#2411853 3-Feb-2020 11:06

To the families who have and will lose loved ones this will be no different to 1918.

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