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Geektastic
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  #2808535 6-Nov-2021 17:00
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From The Spectator today:

 

 

 

"After the UK medicines regulator yesterday approved Merck’s Covid pill for use on recently infected, vulnerable patients, Pfizer announced its own successful treatment, Paxlovid. Pfizer’s pill was shown to reduce the risk of hospitalisation and death in Covid patients by up to 89 per cent compared with a placebo.

 

The drug has proved so effective that enrolment in the trial has been stopped and Pfizer says it plans to apply to the US regulator for emergency use ‘as soon as possible’. The pill is most effective when treatment starts as soon as a patient becomes aware they are infected with or have been exposed to the virus. It’s taken with a pre-existing HIV drug — ritonavir — which helps it stay in the body for longer. Pfizer scientists say it works by blocking the activity of an enzyme that the virus needs in order to replicate itself.
In the period that ten people died after receiving the placebo there were no deaths in the treatment group. And in the same period, 7 per cent of placebo patients ended up in hospital compared to 0.8 per cent on the treatment. The UK has ordered enough of the Pfizer pill to treat a quarter of a million patients.

 


Vaccines have weakened the link between infections and deaths, with English deaths 89 per cent below last winter’s peak. However, they are beginning to rise in the elderly who are more vulnerable to so-called breakthrough infections and waning immunity. The usual suspects say this data warrants further restrictions. But with another effective treatment on the way — and many more in development — we can become increasingly confident that this winter will be lockdown-free."

 

 

 

 








Rikkitic
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  #2808537 6-Nov-2021 17:16
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Geektastic:

 

From The Spectator today:

 

 

Thank you for that ray of optimism. I was about to quit this thread because it is so depressing. Maybe I will stick around a little longer.

 

 





Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

 


 


Scott3
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  #2808546 6-Nov-2021 17:43
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kiwifidget:

 

Stuff's new projections...

 

 

Sing along with me...

 

Slip slidin' away
Slip slidin' away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip slidin' away

 

 

 

 

 

 

It has now been pushed back to December 8.

 

 

 

Kinda embarrassing for stuff to be running such an optimistic projection.

 

They should be using the current take rate of second doses by x weeks in their model, rather than just assuming everybody will get their second dose 3 weeks later. Ultimately means each region needs to overshoot 90% first dose mark by a 1 - 3 percentage points, then wait a few weeks.




sbiddle
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  #2808550 6-Nov-2021 17:50
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Scott3:

 

 

 

They should be using the current take rate of second doses by x weeks in their model, rather than just assuming everybody will get their second dose 3 weeks later. Ultimately means each region needs to overshoot 90% first dose mark by a 1 - 3 percentage points, then wait a few weeks.

 

 

I really don't feel the same effort has gone into trying to get people to be double jabbed ASAP (ie 3 weeks) as went into the campaign by media to try and push the fact that much longer gaps were better.

 

 


Scott3
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  #2808553 6-Nov-2021 18:01
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Rikkitic:

 

Geektastic:

 

From The Spectator today:

 

 

Thank you for that ray of optimism. I was about to quit this thread because it is so depressing. Maybe I will stick around a little longer.

 

 

 

 

Our current lock-downs have largely been successful in buying time for us to be in a better position to handle the virus in the community.

 

  • Now:

     

    • We are now 26th equal country for first dose vaccination (76% of total population according to NY times) - really good considering where we were 10 weeks ago.
    • We have good hospital treatments for covid-19 now. - Mortality rate of people in ICU on ventilators for covid-19 used to be around 50%. It is not way lower.
    • We are into the warmer bit of the year - so our peak should align with summer when repository stuff doesn't spread as well as in winter. (and hospital loads are typically lower.
  • Soon:

     

    • Opportunity to boost our vaccination rates a lot more. Vaccine passes and vaccine mandates for many workers have yet to be implemented.
    • Vaccines for 5 - 11 year olds will hopefully be here by the end of the year - approved in the USA already. - should give a big boost to overall community immunity.
    • We have an order in for molnupiravir (covid-19 antiviral pill) - just approved in the UK. If given eairly in infection massive reduction in need for hospital care.
    • Pfizer antiviral pill just finished trials - may be a couple months behind molnupiravir.
    • Trial results for vaccine in 6mo - 5 year age groups expected by the end of the year - going well the doses should be available by say march 2022. Getting in just before our winter.
    • We are yet to use booster for those who got their second vaccine dose over 6 months ago could roll this out very quick when approved.
    • novavax application filed which could give people like me the option to boost with a different brand which may result in better protection.

tdgeek
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  #2808558 6-Nov-2021 18:13
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sbiddle:

 

 

 

I really don't feel the same effort has gone into trying to get people to be double jabbed ASAP (ie 3 weeks) as went into the campaign by media to try and push the fact that much longer gaps were better.

 

 

 

 

You know very well why that was the case, there is a corresponding thread in the Politics section.


Reanalyse
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  #2808594 6-Nov-2021 21:59
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This probably should be on a new thread, but I do wonder if the relaxing of the Auckland border will have a different impact than seems to be assumed (uncontrollable flood of Auckland refugees).

 

I know in a number of families the learned behaviour of being isolated in our bubbles and avoiding others for such a long lockdown will linger. It will take some time to re-socialise a lot of fearful people.

 

So possibly a lot of the hospitality business expecting crowds again (albeit vaccinated) may not find that may not eventuate.

 

And while there will be lot of crossing of what was the border for family re-unification I suspect internal tourism may be slow to restart, especially among the more mature higher spending group. Both for their own protection in lower vaccinated areas, and as any Aucklander may possibly be treated as a "plague carrier"

 

 


 
 
 
 

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cokemaster
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  #2808601 6-Nov-2021 22:59
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I think you have a valid point @Reanalyse. I certain agree that non-Aucklanders may be less welcoming of Aucklanders due to 'Aucklanders have Covid' concerns.
What would really be a concern is either this evolves beyond just concerns into discrimination or even violence towards Aucklanders. 

 

I know that at a minimum we are planning a trip to parts of the North Island and aiming to go to the South Island. We will be booking ferry tickets shortly. 





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kobiak
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  #2808606 6-Nov-2021 23:18
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Reanalyse:

This probably should be on a new thread, but I do wonder if the relaxing of the Auckland border will have a different impact than seems to be assumed (uncontrollable flood of Auckland refugees).


I know in a number of families the learned behaviour of being isolated in our bubbles and avoiding others for such a long lockdown will linger. It will take some time to re-socialise a lot of fearful people.


So possibly a lot of the hospitality business expecting crowds again (albeit vaccinated) may not find that may not eventuate.


And while there will be lot of crossing of what was the border for family re-unification I suspect internal tourism may be slow to restart, especially among the more mature higher spending group. Both for their own protection in lower vaccinated areas, and as any Aucklander may possibly be treated as a "plague carrier"


 



I doubt that's how majority feel and will act.

After last year's lockdown I traveled extensively around north island and seen lots of mature 50+ people enjoying their life.

It seems like they are feeling they worked hard - they want more of the experience.

Younger people under 40, are all about immidiate pleasures - bars, cafes, restaurants, ect.




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cokemaster
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  #2808608 6-Nov-2021 23:25
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We went out and about in Auckland. Pretty much there are basket ball games going down, skate bowls are fully populated, playgrounds are fairly busy too... heck even the bushwalk carpark was full with folks parking on the grass. 
Its even possible to get your hair cut too, by a proper hairdresser. Its a cash business, done discretely and organised via certain messaging platforms.

 

Walking both locally and in the bush - most people are maskless, probably about 70-30. The only time we see consistent masking is around supermarkets + other shops.





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Scott3
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  #2808613 6-Nov-2021 23:52
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sbiddle:

 

Scott3:

 

They should be using the current take rate of second doses by x weeks in their model, rather than just assuming everybody will get their second dose 3 weeks later. Ultimately means each region needs to overshoot 90% first dose mark by a 1 - 3 percentage points, then wait a few weeks.

 

 

I really don't feel the same effort has gone into trying to get people to be double jabbed ASAP (ie 3 weeks) as went into the campaign by media to try and push the fact that much longer gaps were better.

 

 

Big driver to increase the dose spacing was to free up doses for peoples first dose. Obviously community good in this, so glad the media got behind it. Less so going the other direction (we are only talking about a 3 or so week delay in full protection for a handful of people).

 



The only changes since when the government was recommending 6 week spacing's:

 

  • Supply constraint on doses has gone away.
  • Risk of exposure has increased.

International evidence suggesting better protection from wider spaced doses hasn't gone away.

 

 

 

 

 

If you ignore the arbitrary 90% fully vaccinated target, I don't think there is is strong case for pushing people who have decided to run 6 or 8 week dose spacing's to shorten to three weeks. - They likely have made an informed decision about their exposure risk - which for the likes wellington, south island etc. is pretty low.

 

Also if the situation starts getting out of hand in their area, they can allway's being their second dose forward at that point.

 

Also introducing vaccine passports will get most of these people to get their second dose in a matter of days.

 

 

 

In terms of effort from our vaccination program. - Those yet to receive a dose should be the highest priority.  In terms of follow up on second doses, Contacting people that have missed appointments and offering to re-book them seems the lowest hanging fruit. Otherwise starting at the bottom of the list (longest time since first dose) and work our why up,skipping over those that have appointments in the future.


Scott3
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  #2808616 7-Nov-2021 00:15
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Batman:

 

now Maori not happy says more Pakeha unvaccinated https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/300447300/covid19-more-pkeh-are-unvaccinated-but-mori-are-being-stigmatised

 

 

Interesting take, using absolute numbers of unvaccinated, rather than percentages of demographics.

 

Quite a valid point to say that the number of vaccinated Pakeha (European / other in the data set) stand at 260,000, and that this also requires attention. For comparison unvaccinated Maori are 140,000.

 

 

 

And I think it is valid to say that groups (both ethnic and geographic) that have low vaccination rates are being stigmatized in the quest to hit the 90% target for all DHB's. That target was always going to cause stigma, and I am not sure it is helpful.

 

Article dose acknowledge: "Māori and Pacific people have higher statistical proportions of unvaccinated in their populations and a higher risk of infection, hospitalisation and death."

 

But doesn't acknowledge having vaccinated clustered together in the same communities increases the risk of the virus spreading fast, and overloading health services in that area. Would be great if no communities get left behind in this given the consequences.

 

 


  #2808617 7-Nov-2021 00:23
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Covid-19: Govt won't release Māori vaccination data despite High Court ruling

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300447788/covid19-govt-wont-release-mori-vaccination-data-despite-high-court-ruling

 

 

 

I am not quite sure I understand this, We/they want everybody to be vaccinated, could this not help in this process.

 

Is it just because it's a privacy issue ?? 





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  #2808635 7-Nov-2021 07:15
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If you actually read the whole of Dr Bloomfield's letter to Mr Tamihere - I live paused the TVNZ1 News to do it - I think the argument is based on the MoH discharging its responsibilities to act as a good partner under the Treaty of Waitangi.

 

They reason that the Whanau Ora Commissioning Agency (WOCA) is asking for all the data for the whole of the North Island, but MoH giving it that would mean trampling on the mana of other organisations in whose rohe WOCA has no status, and that some of those other iwi-based organisations are doing a bang-up job and don't need or want any 'help' from a Tamaki Makauru based non-iwi organisation.

 

"I'm sorry, we can't give you all that information because to do so would violate the Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi"

 

It's lovely bit of legal gymnastics, which I suspect demonstrates a rather deep level of antipathy to WOCA at MoH

 

 

 

 

 

Edit: typos


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