2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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29581 posts

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#2440693 18-Mar-2020 13:45

MikeB4:

Having seen the most recent photos of Jacinda Ardern and Dr Bloomfield the strain of this is starting to show on their faces. I shudder to think of the stress levels these folk and others working very hard for Kiwis are under. It is sometimes easy to forget that.

Late nights, early mornings. When you are hard at it brain use wise, you cant just go to sleep. And its tiring. It takes time to calm down. Add in worry.

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heapsort

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#2440698 18-Mar-2020 13:50

There is a nice handy chart on comparative symptoms of COVID-19, Influenza and the common cold, available in PNG and PDF format from this Spinoff story by Siouxsie Wiles:

https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/18-03-2020/siouxsie-wiles-how-testing-for-covid-19-works/

(And since adding a bit of opinion seems almost obligatory for each comment in this thread, I'll just add that I think Siouxsie's stories on this topic are an outstanding source of objective science-based information.)

Edit to add: the link to a PDF format chart is near the bottom of the article.

tdgeek

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#2440699 18-Mar-2020 13:53

heapsort:

There is a nice handy chart on comparative symptoms of COVID-19, Influenza and the common cold, available in PNG and PDF format from this Spinoff story by Siouxsie Wiles:

https://thespinoff.co.nz/science/18-03-2020/siouxsie-wiles-how-testing-for-covid-19-works/

(And since adding a bit of opinion seems almost obligatory for each comment in this thread, I'll just add that I think Siouxsie's stories on this topic are an outstanding source of objective science-based information.)

Yep, its easy to see varying views on some aspects of this topic, and hard to knowi whats a fact. For non medico's anything can sound like a fact

PolicyGuy

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#2440702 18-Mar-2020 13:57

pinkydot:

If slowly getting less planes arriving the country, good timing for Auckland Airport think about it fix up the runaway and make it the best runaway in the world since there been delays for planes landing during the summer. :)

However, I will be completely astounded if that is what actually happens
😡

PolicyGuy

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#2440705 18-Mar-2020 14:00

Mahon:

Geektastic:

According to the papers, the flu vaccine (normal one not for Covid) is "available from today" for people who are usually on the priority list.

I am on that list, so rang the medical centre. They knew nothing and said "You could try ringing back on Monday?"

I rang yesterday and was told not to expect it before 1 April and they were still deciding on how they would implement the injections due to not wanting to inflate their waiting room any more.

I'm sure I read somewhere that there is going to be a coordinated and targetted rollout starting 1st April.
This is to ensure that there are sufficient stocks on hand throughout the country to avoid regional shortages or other panic-caused and panic-inducing difficulties

🤞

floydbloke

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#2440707 18-Mar-2020 14:02

heapsort:

There is a nice handy chart on comparative symptoms of COVID-19, Influenza and the common cold, available in PNG and PDF format from this Spinoff story by Siouxsie Wiles:...

Here 'tis

(@freitasm I don't believe it's copyrighted but please delete if it is and I've missed it or the image is inappropriate to have on here in some other way)

Roses are red, that much is true, but violets are purple, not ****ing blue!

mattwnz

20038 posts

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#2440708 18-Mar-2020 14:09

^^ As I understand it, not everyone will show all or some of those symptoms if they have it. There are reports that there have been some very mild cases, or cases where people didn't have any symptoms

mattwnz

20038 posts

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#2440711 18-Mar-2020 14:17

vexxxboy:

MileHighKiwi: Did I hear correctly? Bloomfield said the kid in Otago had 150 close contacts? They intend to test them all over the next 24 hours.

1 school day, 5 classes ,30 kids in each class, 150 close contacts.

Yes. This is why IMO schools had to be closed. They are a breeding ground for this virus. 150 close contacts just shows the problem. People have returned to NZ during the weekend, and the last few weeks, with no need to self isolate, and have gone straight back into schools and workplaces. Some of these people are likely to have been infected, based on the fact that there has been 12 new cases in the last 24 hours. I just keep shaking my head. At least some have voluntarily self isolated, including some politicians. But some intentionally tried to beat the deadline, simply so they didn't need to self isolate, even though the virus doesn't work to any timetable.

Also currently we don't have any reported cases of community transmission. But isn't that because we don't appear to be testing people (at least not as of last week), who don't have some connection to overseas travel, through their family or themselves?

dogstar001

74 posts

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#2440712 18-Mar-2020 14:18

MikeB4:

Having seen the most recent photos of Jacinda Ardern and Dr Bloomfield the strain of this is starting to show on their faces. I shudder to think of the stress levels these folk and others working very hard for Kiwis are under. It is sometimes easy to forget that.

Yup think they are starting to realise what a slow motion train wreak this whole thing is. Angela Merkel as stated that 60-70% of the european population will get infected.

I imagine we will get a similar percentage here once community outbreak occurs which is now probable IMHO. The only reason it hasn't been detected is because they aren't testing for it.

They refuse unless you have recently come from an infected country. Germanys numbers show that if you test aggressively infections pop up.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120277695/coronavirus-auckland-mums-request-to-be-tested-for-virus-rejected

Alot of uncertainty as to what the true fatility ratio is. Proabably the best indicator is the diamond princess 7 deaths currently of 712 infections. 514 have recovered. Following this trend you

should get about 3 more deaths & the rest should recover. 10/712 is about 1.4% death rate.

NZ's population is 4,800,000, with a 60 % infection rate we get 2,880,000 infections. A death rate of 1.4% is 40,000 dead.

mattwnz

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#2440719 18-Mar-2020 14:27

dogstar001:

MikeB4:

Having seen the most recent photos of Jacinda Ardern and Dr Bloomfield the strain of this is starting to show on their faces. I shudder to think of the stress levels these folk and others working very hard for Kiwis are under. It is sometimes easy to forget that.

Yup think they are starting to realise what a slow motion train wreak this whole thing is. Angela Merkel as stated that 60-70% of the european population will get infected.

I imagine we will get a similar percentage here once community outbreak occurs which is now probable IMHO. The only reason it hasn't been detected is because they aren't testing for it.

They refuse unless you have recently come from an infected country. Germanys numbers show that if you test aggressively infections pop up.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120277695/coronavirus-auckland-mums-request-to-be-tested-for-virus-rejected

Alot of uncertainty as to what the true fatility ratio is. Proabably the best indicator is the diamond princess 7 deaths currently of 712 infections. 514 have recovered. Following this trend you

should get about 3 more deaths & the rest should recover. 10/712 is about 1.4% death rate.

NZ's population is 4,800,000, with a 60 % infection rate we get 2,880,000 infections. A death rate of 1.4% is 40,000 dead.

Do 70% of people get the normal flu? Or is this far more contagious than they first thought? Is the 70% based on people just living their life as normal without any isolation? WE also have to remember that this virus is in addition to the normal flu, so we will still get sick people going to hospital with the normal flu, unless they have been vaccinated. But there are about 1.8 million flu vaccinations, so 3 million people will miss out on it if they want it, at least initially, unless they order more

I know someone in the UK whose work closed last week and they are now all working from home for the next 3 months.

Older and at risk people are going to have to essentially be self quarantined, because will the health system cope? That is now occurring in the UK, who appear to have now flip flopped and will now be following WHOs advice, after modeling showed the path they were following was going to lead to many deaths.

In Italy 80% of those that have died apparently are male, which is apparently partly because females have better immune systems.

In Australia they are putting far more measures in place over the last few days. Considering how fast thngs are chaging, I wonder why more restrictions are coming in in NZ, as now is the time to act, not tomorrow. We won't see the effects of what we have done today to try and change the path, for up to a few weeks.

wellygary

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#2440722 18-Mar-2020 14:40

dogstar001:

Alot of uncertainty as to what the true fatility ratio is. Proabably the best indicator is the diamond princess 7 deaths currently of 712 infections. 514 have recovered. Following this trend you

should get about 3 more deaths & the rest should recover. 10/712 is about 1.4% death rate.

NZ's population is 4,800,000, with a 60 % infection rate we get 2,880,000 infections. A death rate of 1.4% is 40,000 dead.

The Cruise Ships are useful, but don't tend to be very representative in terms of populations ( lots of old folks, not so many young ones)

Korea is running at about 0.7% because they are mass testing and picking up lots of mild cases, and it has not overwhelmed the medical system, Italy on the other hand is just scary and very sad...

Geektastic

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#2440723 18-Mar-2020 14:44

tdgeek:
MikeB4:

Having seen the most recent photos of Jacinda Ardern and Dr Bloomfield the strain of this is starting to show on their faces. I shudder to think of the stress levels these folk and others working very hard for Kiwis are under. It is sometimes easy to forget that.

Late nights, early mornings. When you are hard at it brain use wise, you cant just go to sleep. And its tiring. It takes time to calm down. Add in worry.

Running countries takes a toll. Look at a photo of Tony Blair when he was elected in 97 and then one of when he resigned 10 years later. He looks 30 years older, not 10. Same with Bush, Obama etc.

jonathan18

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#2440724 18-Mar-2020 14:45

dogstar001:

...The only reason it hasn't been detected is because they aren't testing for it.

They refuse unless you have recently come from an infected country. Germanys numbers show that if you test aggressively infections pop up.

You're referencing on the 18th of March a story from the 14th of March that relates to requests to test before that date. Things are moving so fast it does pay to check to see if there's more contemporary information.

The following article from yesterday indicates tests are (or will be) more freely available; would be interested to know if it's happening on the ground. I'm pretty sure I heard mention on Morning Report this morning that there was now the capacity for 1500 tests a day, which this other article suggests would mean numbers similar to what South Korea has been doing (edit: proportional to population, to be clear!).

PM to doctors: test more people for Covid-19

New Zealand should fall in line with international best practice and begin testing large numbers of people for Covid-19, the Prime Minister said this morning

The Government has heeded the World Health Organisation's advice to "test, test, test", Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said on Tuesday morning.

Ardern insisted doctors have always had the ability to order tests for patients but encouraged them to do so more liberally now.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/03/17/1086633/pm-to-doctors-test-more-people-for-covid-19

mattwnz

20038 posts

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#2440725 18-Mar-2020 14:45

wellygary:

dogstar001:

Alot of uncertainty as to what the true fatility ratio is. Proabably the best indicator is the diamond princess 7 deaths currently of 712 infections. 514 have recovered. Following this trend you

should get about 3 more deaths & the rest should recover. 10/712 is about 1.4% death rate.

NZ's population is 4,800,000, with a 60 % infection rate we get 2,880,000 infections. A death rate of 1.4% is 40,000 dead.

The Cruise Ships are useful, but don't tend to be very representative in terms of populations ( lots of old folks, not so many young ones)

Korea is running at about 0.7% because they are mass testing and picking up lots of mild cases, and it has not overwhelmed the medical system, Italy on the other hand is just scary and very sad...

NZ should be learning from all this. WHO has said TEST TEST TEST .

On monday apparently they increased testing. But to increase it up to 1000 and over a day they need staff to do another shift, and they don't want to wear out staff at this early stage, which is understandable. From what they were saying the only limitation on testing was staff. It doesn't sound like they have any limit on the number of test kits they have. Apparently they will be able to do a maximum of 1500 tests a day.

Today they announced they have sent 30,000 swabs around the country to do more testing.

mattwnz

20038 posts

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#2440726 18-Mar-2020 14:46

BREAKING: The government are now telling travelers they should self isolate, even if they arrived before the deadline, and see out the balance of their 14 days in self isolation.

So anyone who has arrived in NZ over the last few weeks should go into self isolation for the balance of days remaining from 14 days. I almost feel like they have read most previous posts saying they should have done this. It was common sense that that should have occurred initially, because the likelihood of someone coming into NZ with the virus was high due to all the cases overseas.

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