2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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1677 posts

Uber Geek

#2813212 15-Nov-2021 12:45

This is a virus that transmits well via aerosol, especially delta.
Children are very good at catching respiratory viruses and spreading, thus RSV outbreak etc.
Ask any teacher .

I'd be a bit skeptical of the 'children don't spread SARS-Cov2' conclusions.
This seems to be a UK thing, where opening schools was considered a national priority.
From a statistical population study, that probably needs more examination and follow up ?.

Testing of children may also be low as can be distressing, main emphasis, testing and protecting adults?

Milder symptoms, may need less virus spread, but may not be zero, especially in large groups.
The chances multiply greatly in the same household as you spend so much time breathing the same air.

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Reanalyse

298 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2813215 15-Nov-2021 12:47

Geektastic:

I agree. To turn it around a bit, it is the unvaccinated blackmailing everyone else. Give me X or I won't get vaccinated....

Interesting article in Stuff https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126954030/covid19-homecall-service-to-vaccinehesitant-patients-racks-up-250000-bill

At 1400 vaccinations resulting from the calls direct from thier health providers that means the cost was some $180.00 per person vaccinated. The cost was actually spread over 4100 people and that shows that even with direct calls from your doctor (cost around $60 per person) looks like only around a third actually got vaccinated.

Shows how hard, and costly, getting the hesitant/antivax crowd safe is costing.

DS248

1661 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2813216 15-Nov-2021 12:50

Batman:

DS248:

...

Not all of them for all people. If you check the data in the plots in Lipnick et al, a couple of the oximeters gave wildly overestimated readings for a few individuals; eg. reading 92 vs actual 80, 98 vs 76, etc (many other similarly overestimated readings for those individuals)

what you just said is extremely concerning but i can't find where it shows that?

from your second link "conclusion - Direct-to-consumer pulse oximeters do not meet ISO-standards required for FDA-clearance, but can accurately rule out hypoxemia."

from your first link "The magnitude of the oximeter error in all 6 oximeters tested here was relatively small at saturations >90% and probably of no clinical significance. However, there were large and variable errors in performance of pulse oximeters at lower saturations."

The readings I was referring to are the ones circled in red in the images below from Lipnick et al (slightly out on one example - should have been 96/77, not 98/76. Lesson, don't work from memory!).

But there were many even slightly worse readings from that model (readings circled pink) and others with a similar level of inaccuracy (circled purple).

The models tested by Harskamp et al (2021) did not seem quite as bad but most of the instruments (including the Contec and the Philips) gave a few (1-3) readings >= 93% where the actual reading was < 89. Three readings might not seem a lot except that the plots in Harskamp et al only show 8 readings under 90%. So that is 1 - 3 out of eight readings.

'Ironically', the only models Harskamp et al (2021) tested that didn't have readings >= 93% vs actual < 89 were ones with higher mean underestimates of SaO2. Problem is some of those suffered from the reverse problem - quite a few low (concerning) readings where actual SaO2 was 95%+.

CokemonZ

920 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2813218 15-Nov-2021 12:51

DS248:

MileHighKiwi:
Good article here about oximeters. I've just purchased one from Granone for $30

https://www.pinnaclepractices.co.nz/news/pulse-oximetry-in-the-community-the-debate/

A couple of academic evaluations of cheap/popular oximeters. Both worth a read if considering getting one.

Lipnick et al (2016), https://www.lifebox.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/The-Accuracy-of-6-Inexpensive-Pulse-Oximeters.pdf

Harskamp et al (2021), medRxiv preprint: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.09.21253181

The best of the cheap models seemed to perform pretty well. None of the models met World Federation of Societies of Anaesthesiologists standards for clinical use. But two of the six low-cost oximeters tested by Lipnick et al met FDA clearance standards. The other four seemed to have serious biases though.

And while none of those tested by Harskamp et al initially met even the FDA standards, four of the ten they studied were within the FDA limits after removing extreme outlier readings (example plot below). Indeed, the hospital grade Philips sensor glove SpO2 monitor they included for comparison performed only slightly better in terms of SpO2-SaO2 bias. The following comment is worth noting though

"From a clinical perspective, we found that the pulse oximeters perform well in ruling out hypoxemia, but are not reliable in detecting manifest hypoxemia. As such, when a pulse oximeter indicates a low SpO2, confirmation is required."

But worth reading the full reports as there are other factors that are relevant.

==

I ordered three Contec CMS50NA models off ebay on Sat ex China at ~NZ$25 each including postage (two being for other family members). Quoted delivery is "before 9 Dec" (hopefully!).

The CMS50NA appears to be very similar to some of the best performing oximeters in the Harskamp (Contec CMS50D1) and Lipnick (Contec CMS50DL) evaluations.

Plot from Harskamp et al.

This type of unit?

FDA OLED Pulse Rate Oximeter Spo2 BLOOD oxygen PR blue +FREE CASE BLUE CMS50NA | eBay

DS248

1661 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2813219 15-Nov-2021 12:55

Should have noted that even for these instruments, reading for most of the subjects were 'OK'.

gzt

15193 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2813222 15-Nov-2021 13:07

Duncan Garner (double vaxxed) and child both with covid. Garner has symptoms.

cruxis:
quickymart:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/entertainment/2021/11/duncan-garner-says-he-has-covid-19-while-awaiting-test-result.html
I wonder where his boy would have got it from though. I didn't think child-to-adult transmission was a common occurrence?

I am interested how he recovers, Physicaly He seems to be in the typical average double vaccinated middle aged pudgy kiwi bloke. Hope he does well.

Lack of sleep or bad cycles is well understood to be terrible for the immune system. Garner just quit a job because the hours were punishing. While I'd pick that as a risk factor really it's a roll of the dice and it's going to be someone every now and again that's just the stats.

Kids are forever touching things and rubbing their eyes, face and nose etc that part is standard.

DS248

1661 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2813223 15-Nov-2021 13:09

CokemonZ:

...

This type of unit?

FDA OLED Pulse Rate Oximeter Spo2 BLOOD oxygen PR blue +FREE CASE BLUE CMS50NA | eBay

Meant to correct but got distracted. The medel I ordered was actually a blue CMS50N (mainly as that one had a quicker delivery time!). Have no idea what the difference is between the CMS50N and CMS50NA (or indeed, the CMS5D1). Specs seem to be identical. Just cosmetic?

Price for the one you linked is basically the same as for the model I bought. Have to add on GST (automatically applied by ebay). Plus the actual exchange rate usually turns out to be slightly worse than the ebay estimate (at least when pay using PayPal). The latter fairly small though.

CokemonZ

920 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2813226 15-Nov-2021 13:12

DS248:

CokemonZ:

...

This type of unit?

FDA OLED Pulse Rate Oximeter Spo2 BLOOD oxygen PR blue +FREE CASE BLUE CMS50NA | eBay

Meant to correct but got distracted. The medel I ordered was actually a blue CMS50N (mainly as that one had a quicker delivery time!). Have no idea what the difference is between the CMS50N and CMS50NA (or indeed, the CMS5D1). Specs seem to be identical. Just cosmetic?

Price for the one you linked is basically the same as for the model I bought. Have to add on GST (automatically applied by ebay). Plus the actual exchange rate usually turns out to be slightly worse than the ebay estimate (at least when pay using PayPal). The latter fairly small though.

Thanks - I got stuck on 3 or 4 models basically seeming identical.

GV27

5421 posts

Uber Geek

#2813230 15-Nov-2021 13:27

The 'time distorts in Wellington at 1pm' thing is happening again.

Technofreak

6102 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#2813237 15-Nov-2021 13:44

quickymart:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/entertainment/2021/11/duncan-garner-says-he-has-covid-19-while-awaiting-test-result.html

I wonder where his boy would have got it from though. I didn't think child-to-adult transmission was a common occurrence?

Who says he got it from his boy? They could have picked it up at the same place.

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quickymart

11171 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

#2813239 15-Nov-2021 13:46

He said himself his son got sick first, then he thinks he got it - I read that as he caught it from his son.

wellygary

7377 posts

Uber Geek

#2813305 15-Nov-2021 14:19

GV27:

The 'time distorts in Wellington at 1pm' thing is happening again.

Yeah, MoH could put a release out on time if they depended on it... :)

175 is the number. so looks like this weekend's peak is 207 , compared to last weekends 206... the 3 day peak is still higher but it does appear we could be close to finding a top in a week of so...

Technofreak

6102 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

#2813307 15-Nov-2021 14:25

quickymart:

He said himself his son got sick first, then he thinks he got it - I read that as he caught it from his son.

His son may have presented with symptoms earlier but still caught it at the same time. Isn't Duncan vaccinated? Might that not reduce/slow the onset of symptoms?

I'm not saying he didn't catch it from his son rather there is plenty of scope for other options. I note there is no mention of his (ex)wife having any symptoms.

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mattwnz

19378 posts

Uber Geek

#2813310 15-Nov-2021 14:27

ezbee:

This is a virus that transmits well via aerosol, especially delta.
Children are very good at catching respiratory viruses and spreading, thus RSV outbreak etc.
Ask any teacher .

I'd be a bit skeptical of the 'children don't spread SARS-Cov2' conclusions.
This seems to be a UK thing, where opening schools was considered a national priority.
From a statistical population study, that probably needs more examination and follow up ?.

Testing of children may also be low as can be distressing, main emphasis, testing and protecting adults?

Milder symptoms, may need less virus spread, but may not be zero, especially in large groups.
The chances multiply greatly in the same household as you spend so much time breathing the same air.

Children spread it to adults. Family members in the UK got it from children who got it from school. Guessing it is even worse with Delta. Apparently 50% of children in the UK have had it and have some natural immunity which is probably helping the UKs numbers at the moment. In NZ schools have been some of the big clusters. In NZ, children under 12 effectively have no immunity so suspect most will get it over the next year or two, and I have heard several experts refer to schools as being a reservoir for the virus, allowing it to stay alive in communities. https://www.newsroom.co.nz/how-the-delta-strain-will-affect-kiwi-kids

vexxxboy

4086 posts

Uber Geek

#2813314 15-Nov-2021 14:37

ok Those 2Rotorua cases are really strange as they are now no longer in Rotorua but have gone back to Auckland to be with family, we may have escaped a large outbreak as there seems to be no close contacts or household contacts.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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