2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 2079 | 2080 | 2081 | 2082 | 2083 | 2084 | 2085 | 2086 | 2087 | 2088 | 2089 | ... | 2421

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2816103 20-Nov-2021 13:24

tdgeek:

Sup:

The limiting factor of this study, is that measuring household members, is like measuring the highest risk, most exposed links in the chain.it is a mistake to extrapolate that vaccines do not impact transmission in a community context....people who live together in close contact....who end up swimming in Covid....are not representative of a macro level highly vaccinated in the community group.

There is also critical information missing in terms of the health status of the people involved in a very small study, what was their general and specific epidemiological profile, were they representative of a mix of healthy and unhealthy people to begin with?

The limiting factor of this study, is that measuring household members, is like measuring the highest risk, most exposed links in the chain.

Thats true. But compare that to "living with it" concerts, moshpits, cafes, restaurants, gyms and the like. Many people in closed spaces in close contact

Is the 200 case per day, real? How many don't get tested due to MIQ concerns? And all this is under a L4/L3 lockdown, not in the real live with it world.

Vaccines do work for health outcomes, do they stop or reduce transmission amongst the vaccinated? The Google search i mentioned goes from it does, to its unknown, its unclear, to it doesnt.

There will be no return to full normality, not until one of two things happen (more likely multiple things, or a combination) things will need some health measures, until there is a quantum break through in treatment, or the virus mutates to a more manageable form, or even burns itself out. As for how New Zealand goes with this juggling act, we are not going to see real change, until children are vaccinated.

Those venue settings are very different to a living in home environment. And we see this very clearly as the contact tracing, shows very little to no on spread from locations of interest. Mask wearing and social distancing being a significant part of that granted.

There are a lot of independent variables, without a larger study, you risk choosing a group who happen to have lower immunological responses to vaccines period.

Agreed about daily case numbers not including all cases. Especially with some of the demographics in NZ. Some estimates at any given time predict that between 15-35% of all cases go undetected. It may be higher.

However, we are talking about an exponential thing here. So even with those cases factored in, the waves are still predictive of trends, and you cannot say after this long with the Delta variant, that vaccines are making no difference. Because clearly they are.

With undetected spread, no matter what, over time (we are talking a long time now) you will see an eruption of down stream cases. This is not happening to the point of total control loss. It has happened in every other country in the world. An obvious possible explanation, is that New Zealand is pumping a lot of fresh Pfizer into the ecosystem. To further illustrate this point, take the contrast of the Resthome in West Auckland with a very high rate of infection across a highly vaccinated group. This seems to be an alarming example of timing in the context of waning immunity after 6 months. Even the younger staff were highly represented in the infected group from that setting. At the moment this case, this Resthome outbreak, is the exception that proves the rule. That Delta, when given a sub therapeutic group to feed on...will infect the majority of the vaccinated....this is not happening on a population scale.

Clearly to my mind, the timing of the therapy is critical in all of this.

We know Vaccines stop some transmission. Look at how this latest wave was uncovered, the wife of Case A did not get infected, she was fully vaccinated. We have multiple reports of low positive tests in vaccinated people, the Prison officer being one example (I used to work a lot in prisons, they are a petri dish of bad actors and a hot bed for disease).

So important that we know where these study participants were on a continuum of risk variables, to really understand what is happening in that study.

Our experience so far is very different, we are seeing reports of Covid in homes, where the people who were not infected, were recently vaccinated.

And I think that translates to the wave pattern in the context of Delta waves in vaccinated societies, where for example in Israel, you introduce vaccines....you see a dramatic decline in cases....and as we know now....this is followed by a rebound severe wave when population immunity wanes, and it is the vaccinated who are hit hardest.

We seem to be confirming this, with the introduction of boosters and the continuation of this pattern of seeing a dramatic case reduction.

Excuse the long rant, I have avoided talking about natural...organically grown herd immunity in a population to shorten my reply.

Just keep swimming...

Eva888

2371 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2816110 20-Nov-2021 13:46

@sup I disagree with mandating vaccination for everyone. Words are easy but the reality would be a scene of protest and extreme violence which I would never want to see in NZ. I feel distressed even thinking about four burly police grabbing someone kicking and screaming while a masked health worker tries to jab a needle into them...multiply this by a few thousand. It could never happen here?

I have no idea how these countries like Austria will enforce mandatory vaccination.

@arcon The data is only a few months old and we are following in Israel’s footsteps therefore we will be in the same position as them also requiring booster shots. It’s an undisputed fact that vaccine efficacy wanes with time. The articles clearly state that getting vaccinated reduces severe illness. Isn’t that what an anti vaxxer needs to hear?

Batman

Mad Scientist
29721 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2816111 20-Nov-2021 13:51

I have a feeling the vaccine mandate will be reversed if there are significant shortage of staff

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-123-unvaccinated-bay-of-plenty-dhb-staff-stood-down/W7OUEXQGGLZPIE2ZCXKZW3JOXQ/

Just a hunch

tdgeek

29643 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2816128 20-Nov-2021 14:39

Sup:

There will be no return to full normality, not until one of two things happen (more likely multiple things, or a combination) things will need some health measures, until there is a quantum break through in treatment, or the virus mutates to a more manageable form, or even burns itself out. As for how New Zealand goes with this juggling act, we are not going to see real change, until children are vaccinated.

Those venue settings are very different to a living in home environment. And we see this very clearly as the contact tracing, shows very little to no on spread from locations of interest. Mask wearing and social distancing being a significant part of that granted.

There are a lot of independent variables, without a larger study, you risk choosing a group who happen to have lower immunological responses to vaccines period.

Agreed about daily case numbers not including all cases. Especially with some of the demographics in NZ. Some estimates at any given time predict that between 15-35% of all cases go undetected. It may be higher.

However, we are talking about an exponential thing here. So even with those cases factored in, the waves are still predictive of trends, and you cannot say after this long with the Delta variant, that vaccines are making no difference. Because clearly they are.

With undetected spread, no matter what, over time (we are talking a long time now) you will see an eruption of down stream cases. This is not happening to the point of total control loss. It has happened in every other country in the world. An obvious possible explanation, is that New Zealand is pumping a lot of fresh Pfizer into the ecosystem. To further illustrate this point, take the contrast of the Resthome in West Auckland with a very high rate of infection across a highly vaccinated group. This seems to be an alarming example of timing in the context of waning immunity after 6 months. Even the younger staff were highly represented in the infected group from that setting. At the moment this case, this Resthome outbreak, is the exception that proves the rule. That Delta, when given a sub therapeutic group to feed on...will infect the majority of the vaccinated....this is not happening on a population scale.

Clearly to my mind, the timing of the therapy is critical in all of this.

We know Vaccines stop some transmission. Look at how this latest wave was uncovered, the wife of Case A did not get infected, she was fully vaccinated. We have multiple reports of low positive tests in vaccinated people, the Prison officer being one example (I used to work a lot in prisons, they are a petri dish of bad actors and a hot bed for disease).

So important that we know where these study participants were on a continuum of risk variables, to really understand what is happening in that study.

Our experience so far is very different, we are seeing reports of Covid in homes, where the people who were not infected, were recently vaccinated.

And I think that translates to the wave pattern in the context of Delta waves in vaccinated societies, where for example in Israel, you introduce vaccines....you see a dramatic decline in cases....and as we know now....this is followed by a rebound severe wave when population immunity wanes, and it is the vaccinated who are hit hardest.

We seem to be confirming this, with the introduction of boosters and the continuation of this pattern of seeing a dramatic case reduction.

Excuse the long rant, I have avoided talking about natural...organically grown herd immunity in a population to shorten my reply.

I dont recall saying that there will be a return to normality

The wife did not get infected, why was that? The myriad of households, it went through them. If I got infected, I would be well clear of other family members so you can't really take one Wife in a case A as typical. As I said, the many articles on that google search shows one extreme to anther re vaccinated transmission. Who is correct? We are talking about an open NZ, "live with it" if your vaccinated show the card you can do anything. Thats way different to being locked down and mask wearing wherever we go. Or me having Covid and self isolating at home.

Yes vaccines stop some transmission, as apparently there is a lower viral load but medical people differ on that. They agree that the transmission period is shorter. All I'm saying is that there is a wide range of thought re vaccinated transmission. One of the articles said its the same as unvaccinated. Are they right? Who knows.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2816129 20-Nov-2021 14:47

Eva888: @sup I disagree with mandating vaccination for everyone. Words are easy but the reality would be a scene of protest and extreme violence which I would never want to see in NZ. I feel distressed even thinking about four burly police grabbing someone kicking and screaming while a masked health worker tries to jab a needle into them...multiply this by a few thousand. It could never happen here?

I have no idea how these countries like Austria will enforce mandatory vaccination.

@arcon The data is only a few months old and we are following in Israel’s footsteps therefore we will be in the same position as them also requiring booster shots. It’s an undisputed fact that vaccine efficacy wanes with time. The articles clearly state that getting vaccinated reduces severe illness. Isn’t that what an anti vaxxer needs to hear?

I do not like the idea of mandates. I do know though, with some experience (not saying I am an expert) that they depend largely on context. They may not happen in New Zealand, they will not happen during this pandemic unless there is an untenable level of threat from a mutation of Covid, which could cause the break down of the social order....or severe harm to our infrastructure.

It comes down to context hey, Austria is getting hammered with no ICU beds, this is not their first rodeo, all other measures have failed. I doubt they will drag people off the streets. More likely they will decline access, to the point where you have to live off the grid to function without a vaccine.

What we keep forgetting, is that this pandemic is likely, nothing like the next one, as equally, it has proved radically different to previous pandemics, due to the uniqueness of Covids behavior....the fact it does not maim or kill everyone...feeds into the narcissistic self and allows fascist and other authoritarian political extremes to politicize and proliferate misinformation about a scientific issue, which has no place politics and especially has no place for peoples opinions and feelings.

There will unfortunately be a future pandemic, the disease X principle that the WHO operates by for pandemic preparedness (I know, Oxymoron WHO and preparedness in the same sentence).

I used to follow all this crap, prepare for 'the big one' it was a small part of my working role, but a part I enjoyed, I like bugs and stuff. But lets consider if Covid mutates in a worse case scenario (I am not scare mongering now, the virus is already doing that, with all its day on day sinister changes, it is not behaving and fair to say highly unpredictable) anyway lets imagine morality rises to match its cousin SARS CoV-1.

That death toll, would possibly in the context of a more intense need for hospital level treatment. Lets also assume it is no longer partial to older people, assume it is like Spanish Flu, and hits our young and vital, at around 14% mortality.

Not hard to imagine in this scenario, that infrastructure will be under a tremendous threat if you compare that rate of loss versus what this Covid Wuhan business is doing to supply chains.

Will we see blanket mandates for vaccines in that context? I think so. I think so if the asymptomatic feature remains. That part, is the worst thing about Covid, it does not just come in....kill everyone it is going to kill and burn out.

I think we will see Govts in unison all over the world direct blanket mandates in that scenario.

I had a chat with a mate about this idea, and he thought mandates would not be needed, because at 14% mortality, no one will refuse a vaccine. I disagree, I think he underestimates the the extent to which misinformation has damaged the human psyche.

There are a lot of crazy people out there now...and more concerning, is their numbers grow day on day.....by the way, that post of mine was intentional to stir the pot a bit, so thanks for the reply.

Just keep swimming...

tdgeek

29643 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2816138 20-Nov-2021 15:00

Sup:

anyway lets imagine morality rises to match its cousin SARS CoV-1.

That death toll, would probably in the context of a more intense need for hospital level treatment. Lets assume it is no longer partial to older people, assume it is like Spanish Flu, and hits our young and vital, at around 14% mortality.

Not hard to imagine in this scenario

Agree

SARS (Covid 1)

May 7, 2003 (CIDRAP News) – The World Health Organization (WHO) today estimated the overall fatality rate for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) patients at 14% to 15%, significantly higher than previous estimates. The agency estimated the rate for people older than 64 years to be more than 50%.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2816140 20-Nov-2021 15:16

tdgeek:

Sup:

anyway lets imagine morality rises to match its cousin SARS CoV-1.

That death toll, would probably in the context of a more intense need for hospital level treatment. Lets assume it is no longer partial to older people, assume it is like Spanish Flu, and hits our young and vital, at around 14% mortality.

Not hard to imagine in this scenario

Agree

SARS (Covid 1)

May 7, 2003 (CIDRAP News) – The World Health Organization (WHO) today estimated the overall fatality rate for SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) patients at 14% to 15%, significantly higher than previous estimates. The agency estimated the rate for people older than 64 years to be more than 50%.

We dodged a bullet there, Thanks in part to the types of countries that were affected most intensely, t often wonder had it got a foothold somewhere say like the Southern United States.

However it was much easier to eradicate, because all cases were symptomatic and they showed a consistent incubation period, and the R Naught was not this horror that is Delta.

Still I guess we will find out how our more vulnerable and poorly vaccinated communities survive the coming months. Rates of vaccine are climbing now with the virus going everywhere hey, there is hope.

On an interpersonal level, I should say, that writing stark posts aside, I feel quite secure having been gifted the gift of a vaccine, even though I understand there is still risk.

But the simple truth is, that the vast majority of people will be fine. And the if enough people do the right thing, so will health care. We need no longer live under this tyranny of fear, every other day their is a game changer being announced in the positive news, and this Pfizer pill if it performs as advertised and is used correctly, in combination with common sense around health measures, should afford us a high degree of personal emotional security.

I just urge people in my own life to keep an eye on changes to the picture, I try to explain everything is evolving, nothing we think now will necessarily be relevant or even helpful in the future, be prepared to be flexible in your view of Covid.

Just keep swimming...

Sharesies

Trade NZ and US shares and funds with Sharesies (affiliate link).

arcon

423 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2816146 20-Nov-2021 15:57

Eva888:

@arcon The data is only a few months old and we are following in Israel’s footsteps therefore we will be in the same position as them also requiring booster shots. It’s an undisputed fact that vaccine efficacy wanes with time. The articles clearly state that getting vaccinated reduces severe illness. Isn’t that what an anti vaxxer needs to hear?

That would assume anti-vaxxers are mentally capable of hearing that severe illness & death message instead of only focusing on the bad parts which approve their confirmation bias. Which they aren't. These are not normal people - facts do not work.

Decreasing efficacy of vaccines (esp from Israel) is among if not the biggest weaponized piece of misinformation out there because it is always taken out of context.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2816207 20-Nov-2021 16:22

Batman: I have a feeling the vaccine mandate will be reversed if there are significant shortage of staff

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-123-unvaccinated-bay-of-plenty-dhb-staff-stood-down/W7OUEXQGGLZPIE2ZCXKZW3JOXQ/

Just a hunch

Big problem but the Government cannot back down on a health care mandate. We do have 900 health care staff inbound with immigration fast tracking. I imagine some of, if not all of their contracts will be tied to specific DHBs at the dept of heaths discretion, on bonded contracts for up to two years, as we do for Nurses from overseas.

You cannot have a loose vaccine coverage situation in health if you want to try to future proof operations from pandemic threats. We have crossed the Rubicon.

I could imagine the BOP workload being outsourced to other DHBs or the borrowing in of staff as seen with the call for volunteers to go to Auckland recently.

It is a serious problem I agree, but not proportionate to a trade off of the entire systems new mandated operations. The other thing to consider is that the Ports of Tauranga found a way to improve their vaccine rates, these are people already in the healthcare family, it might be solvable with some intensive support and education from within.

It would be interesting to know the break down of staff affected here.

Clearly they will try where practicable to employ replacements. No one in future will enter this field without being vaccinated, it will be a norm, a bottom line of the organizations culture.

Just keep swimming...

PolicyGuy

1715 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Lifetime subscriber

#2816222 20-Nov-2021 17:20

Batman: I have a feeling the vaccine mandate will be reversed if there are significant shortage of staff

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-123-unvaccinated-bay-of-plenty-dhb-staff-stood-down/W7OUEXQGGLZPIE2ZCXKZW3JOXQ/

Just a hunch

There is absolutely no chance of the vaccine mandate being reversed, waived, suspended or otherwise given away for the Bay of Plenty DHB. To do so would be a complete political humiliation for the government, and they aren't going to go there.

Anyway, read the statistics:

As at 9am on Wednesday, 42 nurses, six midwives and four senior medical officers were unvaccinated and were stood down.
Seventy-one staff had been defined as "other" which applied to staff of a particular role of which fewer than three staff had been stood down, in an effort to protect their privacy.
This represented 3 per cent of the DHB's workforce

97% compliance

When faced with the stark reality of their choice of the jab or a job, a decent or good salary or the dole, a number of those currently resisting will change their mind during the four weeks stand-down period before they're fired.
On Wednesday they were angry and fired up, in denial of their part in the situation.
In three weeks they may have come to a more realistic assessment of the situation

compound

88 posts

Master Geek

#2816226 20-Nov-2021 17:37

97% compliance is great, unless you are already 20% short staffed.

vexxxboy

4239 posts

Uber Geek

#2816229 20-Nov-2021 17:59

PolicyGuy:

When faced with the stark reality of their choice of the jab or a job, a decent or good salary or the dole, a number of those currently resisting will change their mind during the four weeks stand-down period before they're fired.
On Wednesday they were angry and fired up, in denial of their part in the situation.
In three weeks they may have come to a more realistic assessment of the situation

probably when the mortgage payment is due

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2816230 20-Nov-2021 18:05

There are staffing recruitment options for the Govt. And they know it. They actually hold the Aces in all of this with a proportionately small number of health staff being stood down when you look across the entire system as a whole.

What the staff who may be hoping the Govt change their minds in the face of pressure - may not realise, is that New Zealand is currently enjoying all time record numbers of overseas applications from health care workers.

As mentioned in my earlier post, we have 3x cohorts of 300 staff arriving to bolster the system. That is a large intake by our standards and there is plenty more where that came from.

One of the things about Covid which is under reported, is the resigndemic among top flight healthcare workers, particularly in the US (Incidentally where many of our applicants are coming from now).

Nurses are the most important group in pandemic medicine, they deliver the prescribed care, they keep the patients alive in a very hands on way. New Zealand produces enough Nurses annually to plug the gaps, provided the Govt pay Nurses what they are worth.

The Nursing shortages come about due to the extremely high attrition rate in NZ with an average Nurse earning 35% more next door in Aus. Most of our Nurses go there, and many go o the UK. These are largely made up of our finest and brightest.

We produce over a thousand Nurses a year, yet we employ increasingly more Nurses from overseas backgrounds, the reason being, they are from cultures that do not rock the boat, that accept what they are given and are easy to bully by DHB management (My perception no DHB will agree to this).

The solution is obvious, pay Nurses what they are worth, provide better support from the DHB heads down for these employees, and we will no longer be running this unsafe Nursing conveyor belt.

Unfortunately for us, the DHBs and the Nursing schools need a high turn over of staff to keep the bulk of the workforce on minimum pay conditions and to ensure vacancies for Nursing students, who pay fees to be allowed to 'work' in hospitals.

I won't bore anyone with more moaning about this system....because you have all become aware, that it is a mess....that we are at the same level as Mexico....and that we need to keep thousands of people with Covid at home, with Naff euphemism like 'in home care' to prevent the public from going into a mass panic.

The positive side is, that our vaccine drive despite its initial shortcomings is looking fit for purpose and may just hide the stark reality of the dying at home plan.

We really need extreme measures around ensuring the system is protected by vaccines. Therefore the Govt will not back down on mandates.

It is quite impressive how the Govt pulled a conjuring trick with the care at home scheme. People were worried about the health system crashing because of antivaxxers. The in home care plan mitigates this, it means that ultimately the bulk of the sick will fight it out at home and when our hospitals have zero capacity, the Govt will announce tweaks to the in home care plan...a bulking up on phone and medical support as needed.

That would ordinarily just be seen as people being left to fend for themselves in other countries, here we have given it a name, handed out a bunch of Pulse Oximeters, and given people phone access and email follow up. Someone at the other end of the phone gives advice and triages the calls by need, however when beds are gone, they are gone, in home care becomes 'you are at home, because there is nowhere else for you'

I am not anti the Govt approach this is the reality of the Covid 19 Pandemic everywhere. I am just saying wow if people do not get vaccinated they could be in very serious trouble, the healthcare system not as much, I think the Govt have done everything they can in the short term from the pov of managing this crisis.

Just keep swimming...

Handle9

11267 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2816231 20-Nov-2021 18:18

In every country the vast majority of COVID positive people isolate at home. In every country COVID some COVID positive people die at home.

This is far from unique to NZ.

tdgeek

29643 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2816233 20-Nov-2021 18:27

Sup:

We dodged a bullet there, Thanks in part to the types of countries that were affected most intensely, t often wonder had it got a foothold somewhere say like the Southern United States.

However it was much easier to eradicate, because all cases were symptomatic and they showed a consistent incubation period, and the R Naught was not this horror that is Delta.

Still I guess we will find out how our more vulnerable and poorly vaccinated communities survive the coming months. Rates of vaccine are climbing now with the virus going everywhere hey, there is hope.

On an interpersonal level, I should say, that writing stark posts aside, I feel quite secure having been gifted the gift of a vaccine, even though I understand there is still risk.

But the simple truth is, that the vast majority of people will be fine. And the if enough people do the right thing, so will health care. We need no longer live under this tyranny of fear, every other day their is a game changer being announced in the positive news, and this Pfizer pill if it performs as advertised and is used correctly, in combination with common sense around health measures, should afford us a high degree of personal emotional security.

I just urge people in my own life to keep an eye on changes to the picture, I try to explain everything is evolving, nothing we think now will necessarily be relevant or even helpful in the future, be prepared to be flexible in your view of Covid.

Yep, fully agree. We were lucky that SARS was quite deadly but not that infectious. SARS2 is infectious but not that deadly. But Covid-19 is not that safe, a media article last week had a 49yo, fit, no other issues, but was doing it very hard

1 | ... | 2079 | 2080 | 2081 | 2082 | 2083 | 2084 | 2085 | 2086 | 2087 | 2088 | 2089 | ... | 2421