2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2816814 22-Nov-2021 00:24

tdgeek:

Handle9:

NZ is a wealthy country by any objective measure.

First world country yes, but we have a health system that is apparently well down OECD, no source of natural resources, low wage economy, everyone whines about taxes, and living over the ditch was the way out for many. Id class a wealthy country as one that provides a good infrastructure and a good standard of living. We always live on the edge of infrastructure, not even that actually.

NZ is a high wage, wealthy country. It is in the top 15% of GDP per capita.

The underinvestment in infrastructure is not related to the countries GDP or ability to pay, it is related to political decisions.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2816815 22-Nov-2021 00:30

The European Court of human rights ruled in April, that states are entitled to use mandatory vaccination laws on the basis of striking a balance that protects the vulnerable, those in society who cannot vaccinate themselves.

Human rights expert Michael Lysander Fremut explains that states are obligated to protect citizens. He explains that the rights of the individual to have autonomy over their bodies and physical integrity are not absolutely protected by human rights laws, meaning that state interference can be justified by pressing social needs, and that states are obliged to protect life and public health.

This has always been my understanding of medical ethics in a pandemic context, which is how we have draconian necessary powers under the health act which dates back to the 1950s and allows Bloomfield to involke the act to make special orders requiring citizens to obey restrictions and attend health MIQ etc.

Theses are not new laws or ethical frame works. The qualifier for an ethical dilemma in the first instance is whether it is truly an ethical conflict when a practical clinical or political solution already exists...which is why the Human rights court of the EU ruled it is a political decision and not a human rights conflict.

Just keep swimming...

GV27

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#2816834 22-Nov-2021 07:12

So 3.3 was dead, but now isn't, but the experts don't want it, but they didn't listen to them saying not to go ahead with 3.2 anyway.

quickymart

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#2816836 22-Nov-2021 07:27

GV27:

So 3.3 was dead, but now isn't, but the experts don't want it, but they didn't listen to them saying not to go ahead with 3.2 anyway.

Was that in the news this morning? I couldn't find it.

GV27

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#2816837 22-Nov-2021 07:29

quickymart:

Was that in the news this morning? I couldn't find it.

The articles about 3.3 started appearing on Friday. Liveblog with PM basically ruling it out.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300459577/covid19-live-pm-jacinda-ardern-on-delta-outbreak

rugrat

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#2816866 22-Nov-2021 09:29

Looks like everyone will have to fend for themself with regard to oximeters. Time to look at the Oximeter thread to see what to buy etc.

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/confusion-from-government-over-taking-the-pulse-for-covid-19/ar-AAQY6uP

"Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield said not every single Covid-positive household gets one, but the Ministry of Health said they do - while Health Minister Andrew Little said they don't necessarily, and Grant Robertson said everyone does."

ezbee

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#2816872 22-Nov-2021 09:40

The pulse oximeters may not come with complete instructions, nor supposedly regular telemedicine calls.
6 minute walk test has been commonly mentioned overseas to uncover hidden hypoxia.
Its also possible the oximeters are of variable quality.
Perhaps DHBs took same attitude they took to meals.

'She couldn't even breathe': Families challenged to care for Covid-19 relatives at home
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/456244/she-couldn-t-even-breathe-families-challenged-to-care-for-covid-19-relatives-at-home

""
"She couldn't even breathe to walk five steps. She was out of breath sitting down," the man said.
""
The information that came with the meter said to call an ambulance if the levels dropped below 95, but they were reading as 96 and 97, he said.

When they eventually called an ambulance, the crew said the reading was wrong.

"When they gave the reading on her, her oxygen was well below 90," he said.
""

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wellygary

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#2816877 22-Nov-2021 09:42

Daily case numbers, and more interestingly the 3 day case average is getting very unclear,...

The weekly Peak-Trough pattern has stalled and become much less pronounced ,... Could be close to peaking (last weekend was 176 and 207... this weekend was 172 and 149) .... next 3-4 days will be very telling

rhy7s

616 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2816930 22-Nov-2021 09:51

Sup:

...Pulse Oximiters are great at giving you a cardinal sign of risperitry damage and in this context they are the most important measure...

Hi Sup, I didn't see an option to PM you in your profile. Thanks for taking the time to clarify your position. Just a heads up that your use of risperitry instead of respiratory, especially in the context of talking about COVID19, is probably worth addressing going forward. Sorry to bring up spelling.

rhy7s

616 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2816934 22-Nov-2021 09:55

freitasm:

Daynger:

The self proclaimed apostle is now claiming to be a sovereign citizen, so doesnt fall under NZ laws.

Dump his fake church then.

I agree that it shouldn't get the concessions it does by virtue of its status as a church, but what would you say is a 'real' church?

KrazyKid

1238 posts

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#2816957 22-Nov-2021 10:46

wellygary:

Daily case numbers, and more interestingly the 3 day case average is getting very unclear,...

The weekly Peak-Trough pattern has stalled and become much less pronounced ,... Could be close to peaking (last weekend was 176 and 207... this weekend was 172 and 149) .... next 3-4 days will be very telling

Wonder if anyone has the Auckland only case numbers over the last few weeks graphed - It feels to me that they feel like they are trending down slightly now.
It seems as if the other regions pulling up cases, and the fact that you can get some very peaky regional results at low numbers as one case becomes a household, or you uncover a small cluster after the first local case.

GV27

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#2816960 22-Nov-2021 10:51

So it seems we won't get L3 Step 3. So why wasn't this made much clearer before now? The PM can insist that 'the path is clear' to the traffic light system, but the reality is it's another two weeks at L3 Step 2 on top of weeks and weeks of lockdown. Having done the leg work to get where Aucklanders are in terms of vax rates and the lockdowns to date, I feel like we deserved a bit more directness and honesty about this.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2816962 22-Nov-2021 10:54

rhy7s:

Sup:

...Pulse Oximiters are great at giving you a cardinal sign of risperitry damage and in this context they are the most important measure...

Hi Sup, I didn't see an option to PM you in your profile. Thanks for taking the time to clarify your position. Just a heads up that your use of risperitry instead of respiratory, especially in the context of talking about COVID19, is probably worth addressing going forward. Sorry to bring up spelling.

Hi rhy7s,

Thank you for pointing that out. I actually prefer people correct me, It helps me,

I don't know why I did that. I know how to spell the word, wrote it a thousand times of late and over my working life, thanks. My brain seems to be missing the odd half beat here and there in retirement. Might be the head injuries from work (no need for concern people, it still works, of a fashion). Bear with me, I will do me best (I usually proof read, and you will notice all of my posts are edited versions, I miss beats with proof reading too at times, and I am not strong with spelling, but I know how to spell respiratory). Thanks again.

Just keep swimming...

Scott3

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#2816963 22-Nov-2021 10:55

wellygary:

Daily case numbers, and more interestingly the 3 day case average is getting very unclear,...

The weekly Peak-Trough pattern has stalled and become much less pronounced ,... Could be close to peaking (last weekend was 176 and 207... this weekend was 172 and 149) .... next 3-4 days will be very telling

Yes, indeed.

When viewed on a log scale (Which I feel is appropriate due to the exponential nature of viral outbreaks), the curve has been concave down for some weeks. (Ignore the projection, it is just extrapolating current estimated R0 in the model):

If the trend of decreasing Re-production number continues we should soon have a reproduction number less than 1, which would be awesome.

From then on, it will be a race between community immunity including "natural, virus derived immunity" and vaccination (considering the impact of additional 1st & 2nd doses, boosters, and decay in protection over time).

Likely Auckland already has it's R0 below 1, despite loosening restrictions, and declining compliance.

We have actually done brilliantly with vaccination in a short time. Currently sitting on 77% of total population with a first dose (MOH numbers). For comparison Germany, Austria, Israel are sitting at 69 or 70% (NY times). And we are still vaccinating at around 6000 first doses a day. If we can hold that number we will pick up an extra percentage point every 8.5 days on our total population numbers. Of course going to be very challenging to keep the numbers up as the remaining vaccinated may be increasingly hard to reach. Hopefully the vaccine pass introduction, and Auckland opening date will create a lot of urgency, and drive up the numbers. With a decent chunk of the country going into Red, a lot of stuff is going to become unavailable to the unvaccinated.

In terms of accuracy of the daily case numbers. I accept that we will not be finding every case, but what matters for the trend analysis is if we are missing the same proportion of cases. If we are finding half and missing half, then the trend analysis is still valid.

We are still doing a lot of testing

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/testing-covid-19

And I haven't seen a spike in any other metric (i.e. hospital admissions) to suggest that there is massive growth in undetected cases.

Of course there is sum risk that the virus gets into and cuts through a big chunk of un vaccinated (murapara or similar), which breaks the current trend.

freitasm

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#2816964 22-Nov-2021 10:56

@rhy7s:

I agree that it shouldn't get the concessions it does by virtue of its status as a church, but what would you say is a 'real' church?

Off-topic. You are welcome to create a new thread to discuss this.

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