2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2833217 16-Dec-2021 07:24

The changes to the NZ booster rollout that we're going to announce next week are now a case of too little, too late.

It's by understanding we're looking to move to 4 months, so that's going to mean a massive increase in eligibility and the fact the country will be fully shut down on holiday for the next 3 weeks is going to mean everything slows down and stops at a time where we need to be giving 40,000+ boosters every day.

Omicron is coming and lockdowns a) won't work and b) are no longer an option anyway. I truly wonder how NZers are going to cope assuming we start seeing 1000+ cases per day within the next month or so.

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#2833218 16-Dec-2021 07:27

wellygary:

Scott3:

NSW numbers are out.

1,360 in the 24 hrs to 8pm 14th Dec.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx

Gonna take an early punt and go out on a limb:

Unless something dramatically good happens in NSW the NZ govt will lose its nerve... and the 17th Jan date for allowing returning NZers from OZ to self isolate will not happen...

I think they will still be some form of MIQ, ( probably shortened, but still there)- this allows them to keep caps on the numbers of arrivals

I simply can't see the NZ govt greenlighting self isolation when there are 1000s ( potentially 10s of thousands) of daily cases in OZ....

MIQ is dead. It'll leak like a sieve with Omicron and be totally pointless.

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#2833221 16-Dec-2021 07:37

sbiddle:

MIQ is dead. It'll leak like a sieve with Omicron and be totally pointless.

The other day saw a lady and possibly their relation just talking to each other through the fence of an MIQ facility by Papanui.

That's how it gets out folks...

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#2833223 16-Dec-2021 07:42

MaxineN:

sbiddle:

MIQ is dead. It'll leak like a sieve with Omicron and be totally pointless.

The other day saw a lady and possibly their relation just talking to each other through the fence of an MIQ facility by Papanui.

That's how it gets out folks...

i was in Auckland CBD - there is an MIQ hotel right in the CBD (actually 2)

same thing

anyway looks like we are finally seeing money going into healthcare

sbiddle

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#2833225 16-Dec-2021 07:55

My real concern is how as a country NZ deals with what will very likely be thousands of cases per day by the end of January once Omicron hits here. We're already polarised enough now, let alone the fact the lockdown supports will all be wanting us back in lockdown.

For a country that thought we'd beaten Covid and won and then rolled out a vaccination campaign that focussed on promising normality once we hit 90% double vaxxed it's going to be our toughest test so far when case numbers seemingly spiral out of control.

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#2833226 16-Dec-2021 08:01

sbiddle:

My real concern is how as a country NZ deals with what will very likely be thousands of cases per day by the end of January once Omicron hits here. We're already polarised enough now, let alone the fact the lockdown supports will all be wanting us back in lockdown.

For a country that thought we'd beaten Covid and won and then rolled out a vaccination campaign that focussed on promising normality once we hit 90% double vaxxed it's going to be our toughest test so far when case numbers seemingly spiral out of control.

Assuming as reported. Omicron is far more transmissable yet far weaker, it depends if the media play the cases up as the latest drama, while quietly ignoring that hospital beds are largely unaffected. The incorrect assertion by anti vaxxers is that Covid is just like a cold, may well be where Omicron settles in. Add to that the Chief Medical Officer stated that all ICU beds have only been occupied by the unvaccinated. MoH needs to focus more on beds than case numbers

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#2833229 16-Dec-2021 08:08

tdgeek:

sbiddle:

My real concern is how as a country NZ deals with what will very likely be thousands of cases per day by the end of January once Omicron hits here. We're already polarised enough now, let alone the fact the lockdown supports will all be wanting us back in lockdown.

For a country that thought we'd beaten Covid and won and then rolled out a vaccination campaign that focussed on promising normality once we hit 90% double vaxxed it's going to be our toughest test so far when case numbers seemingly spiral out of control.

Assuming as reported. Omicron is far more transmissable yet far weaker, it depends if the media play the cases up as the latest drama, while quietly ignoring that hospital beds are largely unaffected. The incorrect assertion by anti vaxxers is that Covid is just like a cold, may well be where Omicron settles in. Add to that the Chief Medical Officer stated that all ICU beds have only been occupied by the unvaccinated. MoH needs to focus more on beds than case numbers

The UK press conference did a good job of debunking the "far weaker" belief this morning as well as the lower hospitalisation figures.

Most countries that have seen large scale outbreaks so far (South Africa and the UK to use two big examples) have very high levels of hybrid immunity. The real test is what things are going to be like once case numbers start ramping up in Australia and NZ where we primaraily have vaccine induced immunity due to the comparatively low levels of natural immunity from infections.

There are still plenty of things we don't know about this and some very scary times ahead, but the good news is I'm more convinced than ever that this whole pandemic will be over in 6 months.

But I do agree hospitalisation numbers and not case numbers are the key - because if/when we hit 1000+ cases per day it sure is going to scare a lot of people. Vaccination simply isn't delivering the outcome that many people expected and were sold.

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#2833234 16-Dec-2021 08:43

sbiddle:

There are still plenty of things we don't know about this and some very scary times ahead, but the good news is I'm more convinced than ever that this whole pandemic will be over in 6 months.

I'm really curious as to how you think the end is going to play out?

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#2833235 16-Dec-2021 08:47

Hordes of zombies?

tdgeek

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#2833241 16-Dec-2021 08:57

sbiddle:

Most countries that have seen large scale outbreaks so far (South Africa and the UK to use two big examples) have very high levels of hybrid immunity. The real test is what things are going to be like once case numbers start ramping up in Australia and NZ where we primaraily have vaccine induced immunity due to the comparatively low levels of natural immunity from infections.

There are still plenty of things we don't know about this and some very scary times ahead, but the good news is I'm more convinced than ever that this whole pandemic will be over in 6 months.

But I do agree hospitalisation numbers and not case numbers are the key - because if/when we hit 1000+ cases per day it sure is going to scare a lot of people. Vaccination simply isn't delivering the outcome that many people expected and were sold.

Re the two immunity types, yes that is yet to play out. Boosters will be a thing very soon, mines due in March, younger kids are due very soon, all that is very helpful. I feel and hope that all reinforces vaccine immunity. And given that many many people who are vaccinated will be exposed, either with mild symptoms or no symptoms, that would add to the immunity fix?

I agree re 6 months. That gives us all vaccines to be the norm, and natural immunity for the rest as well as a probably boost to the already vaccinated. And if Omicron is as weak as some are suggesting, that adds to normality

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#2833276 16-Dec-2021 09:59

alasta:

sbiddle:

There are still plenty of things we don't know about this and some very scary times ahead, but the good news is I'm more convinced than ever that this whole pandemic will be over in 6 months.

I'm really curious as to how you think the end is going to play out?

Everybody who's unvaxxed or not triple dosed with a booster (and even many of them possibly will do also) will get Omicron.. And then it's literally going to die out.

We're probably going to hit 50% of the worlds total cases being Omicron within a few days, and that's only going to accelerate.

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#2833280 16-Dec-2021 10:06

sbiddle:

The changes to the NZ booster rollout that we're going to announce next week are now a case of too little, too late.

It's by understanding we're looking to move to 4 months, so that's going to mean a massive increase in eligibility and the fact the country will be fully shut down on holiday for the next 3 weeks is going to mean everything slows down and stops at a time where we need to be giving 40,000+ boosters every day.

Omicron is coming and lockdowns a) won't work and b) are no longer an option anyway. I truly wonder how NZers are going to cope assuming we start seeing 1000+ cases per day within the next month or so.

Hmm, where'd you hear that? (re the 4 months)

(If we switch to 4 months, i'll be eligible for a booster start of Jan)

Also re just looking at hospitaliation/ICU numbers, don't forget about the impact of long covid. If we start getting 100K+ cases, that's going to be a lot of long covid cases, even if the %'s are lower in vaccinated people.

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#2833285 16-Dec-2021 10:11

sbiddle:

Everybody who's unvaxxed or not triple dosed with a booster (and even many of them possibly will do also) will get Omicron.. And then it's literally going to die out.

We're probably going to hit 50% of the worlds total cases being Omicron within a few days, and that's only going to accelerate.

What are your citations for that?

quickymart

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#2833298 16-Dec-2021 10:30

Oh look, yet another stupid, pointless protest. Right after Parliament has finished sitting for the year.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/12/coronavirus-latest-on-covid-19-community-outbreak-thursday-december-16.html

They want Labour to "go" - what, they just want the Government to resign? And then what? These clowns protesting take over? No thanks.

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#2833305 16-Dec-2021 10:47

sbiddle:

Everybody who's unvaxxed or not triple dosed with a booster (and even many of them possibly will do also) will get Omicron.. And then it's literally going to die out.

Depends on your definition of "get", I suppose. Certainly everyone will be exposed to it at some point. Just like with Delta and other variants, vaccination is not 100% effective at preventing infection, so many will be weakly-to-asymptomatically infected, a few will need hospitalisation. A few of the many will get multiple infections, because infection is also not 100% effective at preventing re-infection. Probably some other mutations after Omicron will prove to be viable enough to become "variants of concern" and therefore get a Greek letter.

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