2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 2157 | 2158 | 2159 | 2160 | 2161 | 2162 | 2163 | 2164 | 2165 | 2166 | 2167 | ... | 2398

Networkn
30188 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2835998 20-Dec-2021 14:25

Rikkitic:

wellygary:

Trying to justify the NZ govt is evil is fairly hard when its providing universal hospital care and National superannuation payments to pretty much every one over 65..

I can't speak for her but I would imagine she might say that is part of the plot to lull people into a false sense of security. Anything can be turned around to prove the opposite once you go down that particular rabbit hole. I know. I have had these discussions with her.

As much as you care for this person, you need to understand, you aren't going to get through to them. They need a bigger shock than you can provide, and they will have heard your argument before.

I have the same thing with my nephew, his girlfriend and their brand new daughter. It breaks my heart, but all that happens is a wedge ends up between us all. We have told them we love them and want them to be safe, and believe in the science and evidence behind the vaccine, and left it at that.

I suspect the inconvenience of the passport requirement to enter most premises now will be what gets them across the line, though it's amazing to me you can enter retail without showing it. That would surely move the needle.

Pluralsight

Learn cloud, mobile, security, data and web technologies with Pluralsight (affiliate link).

networkn

Networkn
30188 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2835999 20-Dec-2021 14:28

So, we are seeing an increase in hospital admissions and ICU, but the case numbers are fairly steady under 100 so logically people have it, who aren't being tested. People aren't wanting to get tested (and potentially isolated) over Xmas understandably and whilst I disagree with it, I do get that especially for those who have been in lockdown so long. I suspect that isn't going to end that well.

Scott3

3336 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2836007 20-Dec-2021 14:48

networkn:

So, we are seeing an increase in hospital admissions and ICU, but the case numbers are fairly steady under 100 so logically people have it, who aren't being tested. People aren't wanting to get tested (and potentially isolated) over Xmas understandably and whilst I disagree with it, I do get that especially for those who have been in lockdown so long. I suspect that isn't going to end that well.

Testing numbers are dropping off.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/testing-covid-19

Suspect you hypothesis is correct, but the increase in cases in hospital (49 on the 18th Dec to 62 today) is small enough it could be noise in the data.

Suspect the authorities will be willing to tolerate in increase case numbers / cases in hospital over the next few weeks, in order to avoid headlines about "Canceling Christmas"

KrazyKid

1197 posts

Uber Geek

#2836008 20-Dec-2021 14:49

Are we seeing a rise in hospital numbers yet though?
Probably to soon to tell if the small uptick in the last 3 days means anything

(and also probably academic now that we are waiting for Omicron to arrive. It's hospitalization numbers are still fairly unknown)

But yes I'm sure Delta is spreading slowing nationwide and a rise in hospitalization is evitable as pockets of unvaccinated are found.

RNZ graphic below.

EDIT - what Scott said - beaten to the punch :)

networkn

Networkn
30188 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2836014 20-Dec-2021 15:01

Scott3:

Suspect your hypothesis is correct, but the increase in cases in hospital (49 on the 18th Dec to 62 today) is small enough it could be noise in the data.

Suspect the ~~authorities~~ politicians will be willing to tolerate in increase case numbers / cases in hospital over the next few weeks, in order to avoid headlines about "Canceling Christmas"

Yes. I agree. I don't think it's noise though. A drop in numbers AND an increase in hospitalizations/ICU cases....

Scott3

3336 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2836016 20-Dec-2021 15:05

wellygary:

Scott3:

From media coverage, it sounds like a formal reduction in spacing to the booster will be announced early next week.

Cabinet is meeting today (Monday) would expect the booster announcement directly after the meeting,

Also possibly 5-11 approval ,

Would also expect a big hint at what is happening with the 17th Jan self isolation date too,

Pretty much everyone of the "talking heads" over the last week has said you cannot have only self isolation at home with Omicron... and the border easing for NZ travellers from OZ should be shoved out to Feb, until it is clearer wat is going on in OZ

Cheers, I meant this week, but had forgotten it is now Monday.

You are correct that today should be a big day for announcements.

Given the big centers in Auckland are already doing boosters at 5 months, a reduction in the official minimum booster spacing to at least 5 months seems very likely. Big question if if we go further and follow the UK and do three months.

Below graphic suggests effectiveness against omicron infeaction is just 25% 3 - 4 months after the second dose:

Effectiveness of Pfizer has dropped under Omicron. Graph / Discovery Health Insights

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-south-africa-releases-latest-new-data-on-omicron-pfizer-effectiveness-reduces/6FJGRTHYKEMJ34NUPIZWUOWNEQ/

Cabinet approval for 5 - 11 year old's is just a formality, but hopefully some info will be shared on the timing of the arrival of the pediatric doses. Hopefully we are able to get like 1m in a single shipment in mid to late jan, so no need to priorities doses.

Re Aussie opening on the 17th. That's exactly 4 weeks today. People will already be departing based on the governments strong words they were committed to that date.

But I think we need to kick the can down the road another month ASAP. We really need to watch and learn what happens with Omicron in the likes of NSW, before we let it in to NZ.

Scott3

3336 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2836020 20-Dec-2021 15:13

Scott3:

For NZ MIQ.

Yesterdays announcements border cases:

And the Prior day:

Up to 13 confirmed omicron border cases.

Of interest:

Numbers of border cases in general seem really high.
UAE as transit seems to feature a worrying amount (all different dates to, so not just an infected flight)
I stand by my prior prediction that we are unlikely to make it to Feb 2022 without omicron in the community.

My very rough calculation put the mean time between MIQ leaks at just 12.5 days... Hope I am wrong on that one.

But I recommend people be ready for Omicron. If that means stock pilling baking ingredients etc. do it now before supply chains are stretched.

From media coverage, it sounds like a formal reduction in spacing to the booster will be announced early next week. [edit] today

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/midcentral-hits-90-fully-vaccinated-milestone-69-community-cases-62-hospital-7-icu

+ 9 omicron at the border. (sequencing lags dection by a bit)

Both new cases announced today at the border transited UAE

What is going at the airport in UAE? - does it need to go on the very high risk list? Or is is just a super popular transit spot?

NZ herald start their report on the daily numbers with;

New Zealand is rolling the "roulette wheel in the casino of Covid" each day as to whether the highly-infectious Omicron variant leaks out of managed isolation and into the community, an expert says.

There have been a total of 22 cases of Omicron picked up at the border so far, with genome sequencing detecting a further nine in international arrivals on Monday.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-69-community-cases-nine-new-omicron-cases-in-miq/QYJJGSN3DFRGF2D4KTL4Y4BQSA/

Hopefully we get through the summer holiday period before we see a omicron case in the community.

wellygary

7375 posts

Uber Geek

#2836040 20-Dec-2021 15:52

Scott3:

What is going at the airport in UAE? - does it need to go on the very high risk list? Or is is just a super popular transit spot?

DXB (Dubai) is Emirates home port and main hub, flight to NZ are still pretty sparse on the ground at the moment, and their Daily flight to Auckland is pretty much the main route in and out at the moment.

SIA via Singapore is the other main one still operating, - both have extensive network connections to other destinations...

Otherwise its once a week via Japan or the US, - also without a bubble there are very few OZ flights...

mattwnz

19376 posts

Uber Geek

#2836053 20-Dec-2021 16:06

Scott3:

networkn:

So, we are seeing an increase in hospital admissions and ICU, but the case numbers are fairly steady under 100 so logically people have it, who aren't being tested. People aren't wanting to get tested (and potentially isolated) over Xmas understandably and whilst I disagree with it, I do get that especially for those who have been in lockdown so long. I suspect that isn't going to end that well.

Testing numbers are dropping off.

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/testing-covid-19

Suspect you hypothesis is correct, but the increase in cases in hospital (49 on the 18th Dec to 62 today) is small enough it could be noise in the data.

Suspect the authorities will be willing to tolerate in increase case numbers / cases in hospital over the next few weeks, in order to avoid headlines about "Canceling Christmas"

They have been dropping off. I wonder how many people with mild symptoms are not bothering to get tested now, as it will mean they will be stuck at home over xmas. NZ is also being helped a lot by the weather.

IMO Delta for NZ at the moment isn't the problem due to good vaccination levels , Omicron is the problem. The big thing is when we will get boosters, as without them we could have a big problem if Omicron gets out.

networkn

Networkn
30188 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2836054 20-Dec-2021 16:10

mattwnz:

They have been dropping off. I wonder how many people with mild symptoms are not bothering to get tested now, as it will mean they will be stuck at home over xmas. NZ is also being helped a lot by the weather.

IMO Delta for NZ at the moment isn't the problem due to good vaccination levels , Omicron is the problem. The big thing is when we will get boosters, as without them we could have a big problem if Omicron gets out.

IMO is absolutely an issue for us. Vaccinations help, but enough cases our hospitals will get overwhelmed and snap lockdowns become necessary.

The issue is actually how many who are prepared to forgo a test if they ARE having symptoms are staying home and isolating regardless? Not many I'd suggest. This means it will spread pretty quickly and hospitals will start to fill.

Despite what Hipkins and Little state, we have next to NO spare ICU capacity and even fewer staff, so it won't take long for hospitals to become overrun.

tdgeek

28585 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2836059 20-Dec-2021 16:25

Scott3:

Suspect you hypothesis is correct, but the increase in cases in hospital (49 on the 18th Dec to 62 today) is small enough it could be noise in the data.

ICU has been dropping slowly from the 90's not that long ago, so its trending the right way.

wellygary

7375 posts

Uber Geek

#2836060 20-Dec-2021 16:25

networkn:

Despite what Hipkins and Little state, we have next to NO spare ICU capacity and even fewer staff, so it won't take long for hospitals to become overrun.

There is some salvation that its coming at Summer, nit in the depths of Winter, BUT

The issue is not just with ICU (this is the pinnacle of the iceberg) There is already a well documented shortages at ED, which is where everyone presents....

Woe betide little Timmay who falls out of the top bunk at the bach and breaks their arm.... it'll be a long frustrating time waiting to be seen as COVID floods the waiting rooms....

Handle9

9633 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2836066 20-Dec-2021 16:36

wellygary:
Scott3:

What is going at the airport in UAE? - does it need to go on the very high risk list? Or is is just a super popular transit spot?

DXB (Dubai) is Emirates home port and main hub, flight to NZ are still pretty sparse on the ground at the moment, and their Daily flight to Auckland is pretty much the main route in and out at the moment.

SIA via Singapore is the other main one still operating, - both have extensive network connections to other destinations...

Otherwise its once a week via Japan or the US, - also without a bubble there are very few OZ flights...

This. Emirates are running a pretty complete network.

Case numbers are still relatively low in the UAE (285 yesterday in a population of ~10 million) but it’s one of the few ways to get back from Europe.

Cases have shot up though, last week they were 65 a day.

Scott3

3336 posts

Uber Geek

Lifetime subscriber

#2836072 20-Dec-2021 16:48

Handle9:

This. Emirates are running a pretty complete network.

Case numbers are still relatively low in the UAE (285 yesterday in a population of ~10 million) but it’s one of the few ways to get back from Europe.

Cases have shot up though, last week they were 65 a day.

In the last three days we have had:

16 via UAE
2 via or from Singapore
1 USA direct (not counting the one from the USA that went via UAE)
1 Fiji Direct.

Would that be representative of actual travel volumes at the moment?

mattwnz

19376 posts

Uber Geek

#2836079 20-Dec-2021 17:15

Scott3:

Handle9:

This. Emirates are running a pretty complete network.

Case numbers are still relatively low in the UAE (285 yesterday in a population of ~10 million) but it’s one of the few ways to get back from Europe.

Cases have shot up though, last week they were 65 a day.

In the last three days we have had:

16 via UAE
2 via or from Singapore
1 USA direct (not counting the one from the USA that went via UAE)
1 Fiji Direct.
Would that be representative of actual travel volumes at the moment?

As this is a new significant wave, caused by a new variant overseas, I wonder if they will be reducing the volumes coming in , in order to reduce the risk to it leaking out and reducing the risk to NZers. I recall they did this previously by reducing MIQ capacity, in part for isolating people in the community with covid. It does seem that the percentage coming in with covid is now increasing, and it is mainly this variant. They do have to quickly pivot when conditions change to reduce the risk to NZ.

1 | ... | 2157 | 2158 | 2159 | 2160 | 2161 | 2162 | 2163 | 2164 | 2165 | 2166 | 2167 | ... | 2398