2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2842619 3-Jan-2022 23:48

Handle9:

Most of the world doesn’t know who Ardern is.

She is one of the most famous leaders in the world with her image being beamed from the Burj Kalfa across the Muslim world.

She is the scourge of the American Gun owners 4th amendment nut bars after removing automatic weapons from citizens.

She is well known in white supremacy circles as the woman who wore the Muslim clothing and took away good peoples firearms.

She was mocked on Fox News US a number of times as a dictator who is imprisoning New Zealand citizens.

Adern is held up as a left wing nut job who wants to take over the UN and the world among conspiracy theorists.

Many global figures reference her as an example of the new leadership style, clean politics and leadership with empathy.

She is the most well known leader in our history by some distance whether people like her or not. I am not talking politics here I am talking about a New Zealander that is at high risk from the Antivaxx movement in terms of their personal safety because of their public profile and the severe health restrictions the Govt of the day have inherited in their tool box as recommended by independent health voices to protect an under funded health care system that is a result of decades of neglect.

Just keep swimming...

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Handle9

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#2842624 4-Jan-2022 00:47

Most people in the world have very little clue about New Zealand or Ardern. Given I’m in the UAE I’m more than aware of her profile here. Most people don’t know her name.

Sup

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Ultimate Geek

#2842627 4-Jan-2022 01:02

Handle9: Most people in the world have very little clue about New Zealand or Ardern. Given I’m in the UAE I’m more than aware of her profile here. Most people don’t know her name.

So most of the world are unaware that the worst recent terror attack in the West was in New Zealand less than ten years ago and was committed by a White supremacist who beamed it live on Fb and Adern fronted the story.

Just keep swimming...

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#2842628 4-Jan-2022 01:07

Sup:
Handle9: Most people in the world have very little clue about New Zealand or Ardern. Given I’m in the UAE I’m more than aware of her profile here. Most people don’t know her name.
So most of the world are unaware that the worst recent terror attack in the West was in New Zealand less than ten years ago and was committed by a White supremacist who beamed it live on Fb and Adern fronted the story.

Right.

The coverage was pretty much over in a couple of days, much as the coverage for any international news is over. There were some nice pictures and people moved on with their lives.

freitasm

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#2842638 4-Jan-2022 07:08

You are all very close to getting locked out of this discussion. @sup I am looking at you.

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Scott3

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#2842982 4-Jan-2022 10:34

alasta:

I was thinking that the current booster would just tide us over until the mRNA vaccines are updated for omicron. Hopefully then we can get a fourth injection and have longer lasting protection.

Or am I dreaming?

Based on what we are seeing overseas, it seems highly probable that our omicron wave will be past it's peak by the time a omicron specific vaccine is available in NZ.

The famous 100 days to develop a variant specific booster started in early December ( I think), so we have about two more months to run on that. Then we have the time required to get approvals & actual doses. For comparison Pfizer submitted its application to the FDA for it's 5 - 11 age group vaccine on the 28/09/2021. We expect to start that roll out on 17/01/2022, so another few months their.

Omicron seems so rampant and fast growing overseas (doubling time of just a few days), it seems that most or the would will have had it in the next few month's. (incl the vaccinated, most of whom will have mild infections)

A study has boosters as 70% effective against omicron infection at 1 week, dropping to 45% at 10 weeks, and anecdotally the number of breakthrough infections (even in the boosted) overseas seem high.

I expect that omicron will burn itself out before we have a specific booster. And many in NZ will have immunity from 2 - 3 doses of pfizer, stacked with a the immunity from a natural omicron infection.

I think we might need to change the messaging around the vaccines to remove references to stopping infection / spread, and focus instead on protecting yourself by stopping severe disease

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#2842986 4-Jan-2022 10:45

Headline from yesterday.

Covid 19 Omicron scare: DJ Dimension avoids prosecution - Ministry of Health

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-scare-dj-dimension-avoids-prosecution-ministry-of-health/LD7NDOGN257SG4OBYYKY6ILGAY/

I get the sentiment, around (informally in this case) granting immunity to those actually infected to avoid details being withheld in the contact tracing process.

But the combination of low enforcement of self isolation for those who don't return a positive test, and now expected informal immunity for those that do, will result in low compliance of any future self isolation program.

I think we should be ditching our proposed self isolation for international arrivals, and just opening once we have omicron in the community. Little point in carrying the costs to maintain a shark net (that is riddled with holes), when we have omicron on both sides of the net...

Sup

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Ultimate Geek

#2842989 4-Jan-2022 10:51

freitasm:

You are all very close to getting locked out of this discussion. @sup I am looking at you.

More than fair, I thought I might be getting close to the tolerances of this discussions focus on the Apolitical. The derailment was born out of the Antivaxxers threatening prominent figures re Hendy and Wiles. From innocent beginnings it strayed off course to other prominent figures. Read you loud and clear.

Just keep swimming...

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#2842994 4-Jan-2022 11:00

Yes, i didn't mind that post. But it escalated quickly...

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#2842996 4-Jan-2022 11:04

NSW daily data:

And the hospitalization data fro trend tracking:

Sup

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Ultimate Geek

#2842999 4-Jan-2022 11:09

Scott3:

alasta:

I was thinking that the current booster would just tide us over until the mRNA vaccines are updated for omicron. Hopefully then we can get a fourth injection and have longer lasting protection.

Or am I dreaming?

Based on what we are seeing overseas, it seems highly probable that our omicron wave will be past it's peak by the time a omicron specific vaccine is available in NZ.

The famous 100 days to develop a variant specific booster started in early December ( I think), so we have about two more months to run on that. Then we have the time required to get approvals & actual doses. For comparison Pfizer submitted its application to the FDA for it's 5 - 11 age group vaccine on the 28/09/2021. We expect to start that roll out on 17/01/2022, so another few months their.

Omicron seems so rampant and fast growing overseas (doubling time of just a few days), it seems that most or the would will have had it in the next few month's. (incl the vaccinated, most of whom will have mild infections)

A study has boosters as 70% effective against omicron infection at 1 week, dropping to 45% at 10 weeks, and anecdotally the number of breakthrough infections (even in the boosted) overseas seem high.

I expect that omicron will burn itself out before we have a specific booster. And many in NZ will have immunity from 2 - 3 doses of pfizer, stacked with a the immunity from a natural omicron infection.

I think we might need to change the messaging around the vaccines to remove references to stopping infection / spread, and focus instead on protecting yourself by stopping severe disease

I would love to hear the thoughts of Helen Petousis Harris and others from our vaccine advisory group on this subject.

One of the things that I am grateful for as a New Zealander is having independent experts like the vaccine group and medsafe. I have seen people grumble about how long medsafe take to do their own processes and why can't they just follow the FDA or the UK, but I like that we have our own checks and balances....because as you say...the global philosophy around these vaccines appears to often times be using the wrong settings.

All that said, given we know that raw exposure to omicron produces Delta protection, it may well be time for an upgrade, partly on the basis that the old vaccine is falling behind in the evolutionary race and partly to do with having a highly effective vaccine at slowing mutation.

This would take a leap of faith, however this is one of those Devil and the Deep blue sea choices, do we risk the old vaccine being even less effective against the next strain, which we anticipate will be related to either Delta / or more likely omicron.

With so many break through infections we must be risking significant vaccine escape by letting omicron become increasingly fit in a weaker system.

Clearly I do not have the answers. The question is always changing. As you point out, chasing the sterilizing Dragon is not necessarily the right way to approach this either.

It may be the Super immunity of Vaccine plus omicron is really the only true way through.

Just keep swimming...

Scott3

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#2843001 4-Jan-2022 11:12

Should note that NSW has 10.8 staffed icu beds per 100,000 (source the gardian 13/10/2021), which works out to be about 875.

As such (barring having enough staff well to come to work), the current hospital load is unlikely to be too much of a concern for them, but there is a risk we see icu admissions tripping as we have seen with case numbers over the lest 10 or so days.

NZ has way less staffed icu beds per capita than NSW at 176 (source nzma 12/11/2021) works out to 3.4 per 100,000 - Hopefully my numbers are wrong, seems worryingly low. So I think it is clear that we cannot follow NSW pathway, and need to do better than them (shouldn't be hard) when we have an omicron outbreak.

Sup

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Ultimate Geek

#2843006 4-Jan-2022 11:19

Scott3:

NSW daily data:

And the hospitalization data fro trend tracking:

So the NSW system has a capped limit for capturing numbers which is in the twenty thousands. Twenty five thousand, the notorious modelling numbers we were warned of, might indeed be the speed of light, a universal constant.

We are well past 100,000 cases here.

I see that the testing system is collapsing under the weight of Omicron with twenty eight testing facilities closing permanently and multiple public funded sites closing due to staffing.

There is a lot of rage in NSW about the opening up plan, and now the lack of oversight by Govt in trying to source test kits and make them freely available.

The vast majority of cases are not being tested.

There are test kits being offered to Australians online for as much as one hundred and seventy nine dollars plus financing.

Many experts believe this testing failure is fueling a super outbreak.

Those hospital figures march ever onward, with multiple essential health services including emergency Departments from three Melbourne hospitals asking people to stay away unless they are critical.

We need to keep this thing out till we can provide free testing, vaccinations for children, and boosters of all the most vulnerable citizens and we need to do this rappidly.

Just keep swimming...

freitasm

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#2843010 4-Jan-2022 11:24

"There is a lot of rage in NSW about the opening up plan, and now the lack of oversight by Govt in trying to source test kits and make them freely available."

Meanwhile, if you read some NZ commentary you would think our slow opening approach is the wrong one when in in fact is probably only one of two or three things holding it at bay for a while.

I still shake my head with the stupidity some people show.

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#2843018 4-Jan-2022 11:34

Sup:

All that said, given we know that raw exposure to omicron produces Delta protection, it may well be time for an upgrade, partly on the basis that the old vaccine is falling behind in the evolutionary race and partly to do with having a highly effective vaccine at slowing mutation.

This would take a leap of faith, however this is one of those Devil and the Deep blue sea choices, do we risk the old vaccine being even less effective against the next strain, which we anticipate will be related to either Delta / or more likely omicron.

With so many break through infections we must be risking significant vaccine escape by letting omicron become increasingly fit in a weaker system.

Clearly I do not have the answers. The question is always changing. As you point out, chasing the sterilizing Dragon is not necessarily the right way to approach this either.

It may be the Super immunity of Vaccine plus omicron is really the only true way through.

Many countries incl Australia, the UK and US have all chosen that path. Many countries in Europe are now following.

As scary as it is to many, right now it looks like it could well be the best approach, with a virus ripping through highly vaccinated countries (so excl the US!) generating great hybrid immunity. We know it generated Delta immunity, and some experts that truly believe this is the end of the pandemic are speculating the immunity it generates could well even we wider ranging than that.

If we somehow manage to avoid CT of Omicron say by the end of January and the evidence that Omicron really is the end of the pandemic becomes so much clearer it's going to place NZ in a very difficult position. We either open the borders and let it rip which will be hugely controversial or we double down and insist we don't want Omicron here and will be fully reliant on yet more vaccines to provide immunity. Covid will ultimately become even more political than it is now.

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