2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2441939 20-Mar-2020 10:18

Oblivian:

jonb: With the Australian announcement just now, does that mean it is still possible for NZers to get back thru transferring flights at Sydney or Melbourne, i.e. not passing thru customs?

I'd like to think so. Then again they have been known to remove prohibited items from baggage of those transiting (despite not touching Australian soil) without question. So who knows!

Lounges are *meant* to be considered secure deadzones not in-country. But this may also prompt airlines to cancel flights as of tonight due expecting to turn half their passengers around.

Looks like it is ok still - this is about the only route for repatriating to New Zealand with the cancellations of most of the direct to Auckland flights. Article in the Guardian, and the Sydney Airport status , says transit to NZ still happening, with self isolation at the airport, however that would work. Daughters uni exchange has been canned, and the planned exchange for next semester as well.so is returning from Edinburgh saturday (with the next semester excahnge cancelled now needed to be back by July for Auckland Uni. Self isolating with me (therefore me too) from Monday all going to plan. Flights were $1500 one way, about the same as a normal return price, Emirates EDI - CHC.

Journeyman

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#2441940 20-Mar-2020 10:24

Gurezaemon:

freitasm:
Well, 12 pm is midday and it is not ambiguous.

Midnight on the other hand can be either the start or end of a day.

I'd argue both are ambiguous. P.M. means post meridian, (after the meridian (noon)), and midnight is 12 hours after that. After all, 12:00 pm is one minute after 11:59 pm... :p

No. 12:00 PM is one minute after 11:59 AM. In other words, 12 PM is midday.

freitasm

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#2441942 20-Mar-2020 10:26

Journeyman:

Gurezaemon:

I'd argue both are ambiguous. P.M. means post meridian, (after the meridian (noon)), and midnight is 12 hours after that. After all, 12:00 pm is one minute after 11:59 pm... :p

No. 12:00 PM is one minute after 11:59 AM. In other words, 12 PM is midday.

Correct. 12 am is after 11:59 pm. 12 pm is after 11:59 am. There's no ambiguity here - using "midnight" is wrong because people don't know if it's start or end of day but am/pm is never ambiguous.

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MikeB4

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#2441943 20-Mar-2020 10:28

Some folks have too much time on their hands.

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Rikkitic

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#2441945 20-Mar-2020 10:29

I have only non-expert lay person understanding of this virus and how it transmits, so don't jump on me if this is stupid, but a question has occurred to me. Could there be a genetic component to this, as in some groups of people are more susceptible than others? This might explain why Italy has such a high infection rate, and also why Australia (which has a large Italian immigrant population) seems to have a higher rate than we do. I am not speculating about this, just asking. Can anyone explain?

I don't think there is ever a bad time to talk about how absurd war is, how old men make decisions and young people die. - George Clooney

Gurezaemon

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#2441946 20-Mar-2020 10:33

freitasm:

Journeyman:

No. 12:00 PM is one minute after 11:59 AM. In other words, 12 PM is midday.

Correct. 12 am is after 11:59 pm. 12 pm is after 11:59 am. There's no ambiguity here - using "midnight" is wrong because people don't know if it's start or end of day but am/pm is never ambiguous.

I suppose that counting up from 11:58 pm, 11:59 pm, 12:00 pm seems more intuitive to me.
Why can't people just use the 24 hour clock and be done with it... Or at the very least, say 12 noon when that's when they mean.

Dingbatt

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#2441947 20-Mar-2020 10:33

If the ‘course’ of this epidemic is 10 to 12 weeks, as has been suggested by people as varied as Boris Johnson and Bill Gates (neither trained epidemiologists I concede) my question becomes “What is NZ’s exit strategy? If we are successful in the ‘stamp it out’ phase and don’t have community transmission, and therefore no general (herd) immunity in the wider community from people that have recovered, how do we reopen the borders eventually?

Does that mean we have to wait until there is a vaccine available (12-18 months)?

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Fred99

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#2441948 20-Mar-2020 10:34

Rikkitic:

I have only non-expert lay person understanding of this virus and how it transmits, so don't jump on me if this is stupid, but a question has occurred to me. Could there be a genetic component to this, as in some groups of people are more susceptible than others? This might explain why Italy has such a high infection rate, and also why Australia (which has a large Italian immigrant population) seems to have a higher rate than we do. I am not speculating about this, just asking. Can anyone explain?

There could be - but probably not.

Other explanations are more likely IMO - population density and social distancing, demographics, prevalence of health conditions predisposing to poor prognosis etc etc.

If I have a "pet theory" without good evidence (and I have a few vague ideas), one that might have something to it is that if there's a seasonal factor, as well as living conditions (staying indoors etc), then people with darker skins living in cool climates tend to have low serum Vitamin D levels - especially at the end of winter. An exception is Japan (there may be others) where a seafood rich diet seemed to show that elderly Japanese have far less Vit D deficiency than in Northern Italy and Spain - where deficiency was very common.

(I expected that Japan would have had runaway local epidemic with the same consequence as Italy - but although it may be bad there - they haven't. I expect the % of elderly in Japan is as just as high as Italy)

Gurezaemon

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#2441949 20-Mar-2020 10:37

Rikkitic:

I have only non-expert lay person understanding of this virus and how it transmits, so don't jump on me if this is stupid, but a question has occurred to me. Could there be a genetic component to this, as in some groups of people are more susceptible than others? This might explain why Italy has such a high infection rate, and also why Australia (which has a large Italian immigrant population) seems to have a higher rate than we do. I am not speculating about this, just asking. Can anyone explain?

This explains it well (Telegraph)

Geektastic

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#2441950 20-Mar-2020 10:37

Hibino:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fksnbf/im_bill_gates_cochair_of_the_bill_melinda_gates/

Bill Gates also confirms social isolation is working.

There are people saying the virus gets weaker and weaker by passing through people, I hope it is true and the one in NZ is a minor version.

He also claims Windows is good...! 😝

freitasm

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#2441958 20-Mar-2020 10:42

Geektastic:

Hibino:

https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fksnbf/im_bill_gates_cochair_of_the_bill_melinda_gates/

Bill Gates also confirms social isolation is working.

There are people saying the virus gets weaker and weaker by passing through people, I hope it is true and the one in NZ is a minor version.

He also claims Windows is good...! 😝

Sarcasm aside, Bill Gates is very intelligent and the foundation have been doing great work in the health front.

He knows what he's talking about. Unlike Trump.

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Scott3

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#2441963 20-Mar-2020 10:48

Dingbatt:

If the ‘course’ of this epidemic is 10 to 12 weeks, as has been suggested by people as varied as Boris Johnson and Bill Gates (neither trained epidemiologists I concede) my question becomes “What is NZ’s exit strategy? If we are successful in the ‘stamp it out’ phase and don’t have community transmission, and therefore no general (herd) immunity in the wider community from people that have recovered, how do we reopen the borders eventually?

Does that mean we have to wait until there is a vaccine available (12-18 months)?

Pritty much.

If we are successful at stamping it out, we can relax domestic social isolating procedures. We can then enjoy ourselves while the rest of the world is locked down.

Also we will be able to load ship after ship up with NZ produced food to ship to area's where it is desperately needed.

Possibly we could re-open tourism with countries that have also stamped it out.

Note that there is no exit strategy for the rest of the world either. Wuhan is still locked down, despite the virus existing since November (officially December) in that city.

With regards to herd immunity, there doesn't seem to be a scientific consensus yet that any immunity lasts for a useful length of time.

Also say we 5% of cases need 2 weeks of ICU care, and we free up 100 ICU beds for covid-19, in order to expose 60% of our population, we will need to "spread the curve" over 1440 weeks, or 28 years, in order to avoid overloading our ICU capacity.

In Italy 10% of confirmed cases needed ICU care... (They may have missed a bunch of mild cases though, improving the percentage.)

The above duration is unworkable long. Anybody planning to get herd immunity in a shorter period is planning for the hospital system to be overloaded, and a sudden spike in deaths. With an overloaded hospital system, not just covid-19 cases will die, also people with heart attacks, and people in car crashes etc...

amiga500

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#2441964 20-Mar-2020 10:50

In the Aljazeera documentary about Bill Gates and Steve Jobs he gets a lot of praise for the foundation & work fighting malaria. (This is an excellent documentary for any Geekzoner to watch.)

networkn

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#2441965 20-Mar-2020 10:54

Rikkitic:

MikeB4:

Does your grocery outlet do online ordering? if so I would just do that and get it delivered. Makes shopping less stressful and eliminates the need to deal with idiots.

We live way beyond any home delivery boundaries. It would take an Amazon drone to reach us.

Call your local Countdown or New World, and speak to a manager. Explain your situation.

I spoke to a store manager who assured me they are working to ensure no-one is left behind.

GV27

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#2441968 20-Mar-2020 10:58

"We have no evidence of community transmission at this stage. Of course, with the numbers rising of people coming in, bringing this in from overseas, that presents concern and that is why we have been so robust around self-isolation and the expectations around it and why we are doing the spot checks with the police," he told The AM Show.

David Clark says no evidence of CT yet.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/03/coronavirus-health-minister-david-clark-s-latest-briefing-shows-no-evidence-of-community-transmission.html?fbclid=IwAR1Em9fB0ruYlvBIdm5p2gZce3ELuGv8xLjmsWNEsHzKVAI9L0c0GIRU1hc

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