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Batman

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  #2914690 16-May-2022 18:03
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possibly due to the way deaths are classified?





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


GV27
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  #2915466 18-May-2022 10:27
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I guess I find it hard to reconcile with the panic and allegations that people wanted to 'let it rip' and here we are with double-digit deaths on the daily, and it turns out there's a technical reason why that's perfectly fine. 


freitasm
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  #2915484 18-May-2022 10:50
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GV27:

 

I guess I find it hard to reconcile with the panic and allegations that people wanted to 'let it rip' and here we are with double-digit deaths on the daily, and it turns out there's a technical reason why that's perfectly fine. 

 

 

And if any of the Freedumb team complains about the double-digits death, we can always say they have no right to complain when they don't want to wear masks or receive vaccines.





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johno1234
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  #2915495 18-May-2022 11:14
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Let's not lose sight of a couple of important things: 1) these are deaths "with" not "by" COVID. 2) New Zealand's Excess Mortality measure remains negative.

 

COVID modelers are suggesting that 50% of New Zealand's population has been infected with COVID. This makes it likely that the "with" number is going to be high.

 

 


mclean
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  #2915518 18-May-2022 12:07
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johno1234:...COVID modelers are suggesting that 50% of New Zealand's population has been infected with COVID. This makes it likely that the "with" number is going to be high.

 

Reported COVID-19 deaths are people who die within 28 days of being reported as a COVID-19 case. That's not 50% of the population. People who die more than 28 days after being reported as a COVID-19 case, or who are unreported cases, are NOT counted in the official figures. If they were, the death rate would be VERY much higher.





McLean


wellygary
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  #2915571 18-May-2022 13:25
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"If it bleeds it leads"  is still alive and well in the NZ Media 

 

"Live: Grim milestone as Covid-19 related deaths top 1000; 9,570 new community cases reported today"

 

 

 

But from the MoH today... its actually only 678 as confirmed as underlying or contributing, 161 are not related to COVID ( but had it when they passed) and 138 were still being determined..

 

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/covid-19-deaths-reporting-update

 

As of this morning:

 

  • 447 people have died with COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death. Of these, 439 died within 28 days of being reported as a case.
  • 231 people have died with COVID-19 as a contributing cause of death. Of these, 229 died within 28 days of being reported as a case.
  • 161 people, all of whom died within 28 days of being reported as a case, had a cause of death unrelated to COVID-19
  • 138 people who died within 28 days of being reported as a case have yet to be classified. In some instances, the cause of death can take longer to determined, including if it is being investigated by a coroner.

johno1234
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  #2915574 18-May-2022 13:41
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mclean:

 

johno1234:...COVID modelers are suggesting that 50% of New Zealand's population has been infected with COVID. This makes it likely that the "with" number is going to be high.

 

Reported COVID-19 deaths are people who die within 28 days of being reported as a COVID-19 case. That's not 50% of the population. People who die more than 28 days after being reported as a COVID-19 case, or who are unreported cases, are NOT counted in the official figures. If they were, the death rate would be VERY much higher.

 

 

Agreed. But even within the 28 days there's a significant number of those deaths that would otherwise not have been known about - unreported or asymptomatic cases?

 

 




ezbee
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  #2915578 18-May-2022 13:56
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Given that we did track fairly close to Australia on trend line, just 60 days or so later.
This may give a peak into the future of how stats would go.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

 

 

Anyway got my Flu shot done, and given how things go in South Auckland in normal Flu season.
Any reduction in chance of getting caught up in it is worth it.
Visited relative in Middlemore recently, staff are great, numbers and facilities far less so.
Playing percentages, plus you would be dealing with, is it Flu, or is it SARS-Cov2.


GV27
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  #2915585 18-May-2022 14:18
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johno1234:

 

Let's not lose sight of a couple of important things: 1) these are deaths "with" not "by" COVID. 2) New Zealand's Excess Mortality measure remains negative.

 

COVID modelers are suggesting that 50% of New Zealand's population has been infected with COVID. This makes it likely that the "with" number is going to be high.

 

 

This distinction has only started mattering in NZ as death climbs, it never came into it when we were patting ourselves on the back for being amazing in terms of how great our response stacked up globally.

 

All of a sudden it matters, and all of a sudden I have to accept that my kid's daycare isn't actually required to tell us when staff or kids test positive for it. He's not even a year old. 


vexxxboy
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  #2915588 18-May-2022 14:20
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ezbee:

 

Given that we did track fairly close to Australia on trend line, just 60 days or so later.
This may give a peak into the future of how stats would go.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-17/coronavirus-cases-data-reveals-how-covid-19-spreads-in-australia/12060704

 

 

Anyway got my Flu shot done, and given how things go in South Auckland in normal Flu season.
Any reduction in chance of getting caught up in it is worth it.
Visited relative in Middlemore recently, staff are great, numbers and facilities far less so.
Playing percentages, plus you would be dealing with, is it Flu, or is it SARS-Cov2.

 

Australia is going through the BA 2 stage , there first wave was mainly BA1. Remember we missed the BA 1 wave. We should look at Denmark as what could happen. Same Population , highly vaccinated and at the moment they have no restrictions . They have been dropping most days from a high of 40,000 cases a day, they are down to 600 cases a day and remember that is without restrictions.





Common sense is not as common as you think.


johno1234
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  #2915694 18-May-2022 16:23
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I see Denmark heading into spring seasonhas pressed pause on vaccination: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/denmark-the-first-country-to-halt-its-covid-vaccination-program.html 


kyhwana2
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  #2915713 18-May-2022 17:10
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johno1234:

Let's not lose sight of a couple of important things: 1) these are deaths "with" not "by" COVID. 2) New Zealand's Excess Mortality measure remains negative.

 

COVID modelers are suggesting that 50% of New Zealand's population has been infected with COVID. This makes it likely that the "with" number is going to be high.

 

 

 

 

Ah yes, only 67% of those deaths "with" covid have been "because" of covid. Which means 678 have died because of covid.

 

I'm sure that's comforting to the dead people and their families. /s

 


ezbee
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  #2915734 18-May-2022 17:41
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The North Korean SARS-Cov2 experiment.
Lets go commando !

 

There are certainly arguments among virologists etc,
that a good part of Omicrons 'mildness' is vaccination or 'surviving' prior infection or two.

 

If North Korea was more open to sharing data we may have an answer.
They rejected offers of vaccines. Even from China, Russian or Cuban comrades ?
Ok the China vaccine is a bit 'how yore doin' Russia ?

 

Cuba's own one seems to be effective enough. 
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/cuba

 

Evil west did offer help with vaccines, but its evil west.

 

North Korea
Supposedly free of SARS-Cov2 until now, so a naïve population not especially well nourished.

 

Apparently they just have 'Saturday Night Fever'.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/17/north-korea-on-brink-of-covid-19-catastrophe-say-experts

Fire a Nuke to distract Covid-19
https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/north-koreas-covid-19-crisis/


Batman

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  #2915737 18-May-2022 18:04
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wellygary:

 

"If it bleeds it leads"  is still alive and well in the NZ Media 

 

"Live: Grim milestone as Covid-19 related deaths top 1000; 9,570 new community cases reported today"

 

 

 

But from the MoH today... its actually only 678 as confirmed as underlying or contributing, 161 are not related to COVID ( but had it when they passed) and 138 were still being determined..

 

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/news-items/covid-19-deaths-reporting-update

 

As of this morning:

 

  • 447 people have died with COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death. Of these, 439 died within 28 days of being reported as a case.
  • 231 people have died with COVID-19 as a contributing cause of death. Of these, 229 died within 28 days of being reported as a case.
  • 161 people, all of whom died within 28 days of being reported as a case, had a cause of death unrelated to COVID-19
  • 138 people who died within 28 days of being reported as a case have yet to be classified. In some instances, the cause of death can take longer to determined, including if it is being investigated by a coroner.

 

that's excellent that we have most of the deaths classified!

 

do you know how many of the deaths are vaccinated vs unvaccinated? my gut feeling tells me no difference between vax vs unvax. iirc 5% "eligible" population not vaxed. not sure about overall.

 

PS i'm not saying Vax is not useful, in fact i believe the 95% vax protected the rest of the population inc the unvax.

 

just wondering how bad this omicron is, as someone said experts predict north korea disaster - only time will tell, Omicron might be ok even for them?





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


DS248
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  #2915741 18-May-2022 18:10
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johno1234:

 

Let's not lose sight of a couple of important things: 1) these are deaths "with" not "by" COVID. 2) New Zealand's Excess Mortality measure remains negative.

 

COVID modelers are suggesting that 50% of New Zealand's population has been infected with COVID. This makes it likely that the "with" number is going to be high.

 

 

 

 

That is part of the story pushed to minimise our currently high covid death rate.  Many here and elsewhere seem to have interpreted those statements to mean that only a small portion of the daily reported covid deaths were actually due to covid, with the bulk simply having died 'with' covid. 

 

Today officially coded stats for the bulk of the 'covid' deaths have at last been published.  In total data for 739 (84%) out of 877 deaths at the time of the analysis - now risen to 1017):

 

  • 447​ people had died with Covid-19 as the underlying cause of death  = 60.5% of classified cases
    (with 439 of those​ dying within 28 days of being reported as a case)
  • 231​ people have died with Covid-19 as a contributing cause of death = 31.3% of classified cases
    (229​ within 28 days of being reported as a Covid-19 case)
  • 161​ had a cause of death unrelated to Covid-19                               = 18.2% of classified cases
    (all within 28 days of being reported as a case)
  • 138 who died within 28 days of being reported as a case yet to be classified

At last some reliable hard data rather than the previous vague statements.

 

And that shows that Covid-19 was the underlying cause or contributed to the bulk (81.8%) of the reported deaths.  

 

Time to stop playing up the 'deaths "with" not "by" COVID' line.

 

 

 

Edit:  I see Batman posted the same data while I was typing this.  Does not alter the message though.  The large majority of covid deaths that have been reported were actually due to Covid-19 (at least as a contributing cause.  Indeed over in over 60% of cases was the underlying cause)


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