2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

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#2413025 5-Feb-2020 13:02

At 04:00 on February 4th, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 3887 newly confirmed cases (3156 cases in Hubei Province), and 431 new severe cases (377 cases in Hubei Province). There were an increase of 65 death cases (65 cases in Hubei Province), 262 newly cured cases (125 cases in Hubei Province), and 3,971 suspected cases (1957 cases in Hubei Province).
　　As of 24:00 on February 4, the National Health and Health Commission has received a total of 24,324 confirmed cases (one reduction in Hainan Province) of confirmed cases, and 3,219 of the severe cases ~~with cumulative deaths. There were 490 cases~~ (there have been 490 cumulative deaths), and 892 cases were cured and discharged (1 case each in Hainan Province and Hubei Province). There are 23260 suspected cases.
　　At present, a total of 252,154 close contacts have been tracked, 18,457 medical observations have been lifted that day, and 185,555 people are currently receiving medical observations.
　　A total of 39 confirmed cases were reported from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan: 18 in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1 death), 10 in the Macao Special Administrative Region, and 11 in Taiwan.

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Fred99

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#2413066 5-Feb-2020 14:19

From RNZ article about the evacuation flight:

One person was stopped from boarding the Air New Zealand flight from Wuhan this morning after being screened pre-flight because they were unwell.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement about 60 people who registered for the flight did not arrive at the airport and did not give notice. Some who registered earlier chose not to take the flight and took themselves off the list.

The number of evacuees on board the flight has now been finalised at 190, from 11 countries other than New Zealand. Another eight consular and health staff are on board.

There's more information about nationalities of those on the flight in the article.

This probably explains some of the "no shows":

Lily Gao, who RNZ has been speaking to for over a week as she's made plans to escape the locked-down city, was held up at a checkpoint with her two-year-old daughter for over three hours, while another Auckland woman decided that running the gauntlet to the airport wasn't worth the risk.

Clutching her letter of support from the New Zealand Embassy in Beijing, Gao and her daughter set off from her parents' house in Wuhan five hours before they were supposed to be at the airport - a drive that usually takes around 60 minutes.

They had to cross four checkpoints, where their documents were checked and temperatures taken. At one, local government officials told them they didn't have the necessary permissions from Chinese authorities.

"We called the New Zealand Consulate in Beijing and they called the Chinese authorities. Then the Chinese authorities called the local police station," she said. "Finally they let us pass through."

The number of confirmed cases in Japan has jumped sharply. They had a confirmed case with an unwell cruise ship passenger, and have subsequently confirmed "more than 10" cases in fellow passengers. So, the relatively high number of confirmed cases in Japan does not indicate that the disease has established as an epidemic.

wellygary

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#2413076 5-Feb-2020 14:56

Fred99:

The number of confirmed cases in Japan has jumped sharply. They had a confirmed case with an unwell cruise ship passenger, and have subsequently confirmed "more than 10" cases in fellow passengers. So, the relatively high number of confirmed cases in Japan does not indicate that the disease has established as an epidemic.

Having an outbreak on a cruise ship will actually be very useful from an epidemiological point of view, It will give a very good insight on the transmissibility of the disease, and the ability to control infection....

I'm guessing they are dropping bulk hand and surface sanitiser to this ship..

Historically gastro diseases like Norovirus can spread like wildfire on cruises,

PolicyGuy

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#2413117 5-Feb-2020 15:34

wellygary:

Fred99:

The number of confirmed cases in Japan has jumped sharply. They had a confirmed case with an unwell cruise ship passenger, and have subsequently confirmed "more than 10" cases in fellow passengers. So, the relatively high number of confirmed cases in Japan does not indicate that the disease has established as an epidemic.

Having an outbreak on a cruise ship will actually be very useful from an epidemiological point of view, It will give a very good insight on the transmissibility of the disease, and the ability to control infection....

I'm guessing they are dropping bulk hand and surface sanitiser to this ship..

Historically gastro diseases like Norovirus can spread like wildfire on cruises,

It looks like this is only technically in Japan: the coronavirus outbreak is on a cruise ship that has come alongside in Japan, either for a routine stop or because passengers were going sick. Coverage from ABC Australia here: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-05/coronavirus-on-cruise-ship-in-japan/11931688

IIRC there was a story on Stuff about a cruise ship passenger complaining that the ship had stopped in Hong Kong to pick up a substantial number of Chinese - apparently not HK but mainland Chinese - cruise passengers, and now was not allowed to stop in Manila. Seem like it's the same ship? Oops!

FineWine

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#2413118 5-Feb-2020 15:34

wellygary:

Having an outbreak on a cruise ship will actually be very useful from an epidemiological point of view, It will give a very good insight on the transmissibility of the disease, and the ability to control infection....

I'm guessing they are dropping bulk hand and surface sanitiser to this ship..

Historically gastro diseases like Norovirus can spread like wildfire on cruises,

Not only from an epidemiological point of view but also from a quarantine perspective. Just leave the whole ship anchored out in the harbour or ocean. ☣️🛳 ⚓️☣️

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Oblivian

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#2413148 5-Feb-2020 16:02

I was beginning to wonder how soon people would pick up media is focused on flight changes, not port changes (other than the logging)

That will likely change now. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/119293413/couple-fearful-of-dream-cruise-after-insurer-wont-allow-coronavirus-refund

wellygary:

I'm guessing they are dropping bulk hand and surface sanitiser to this ship..

Historically gastro diseases like Norovirus can spread like wildfire on cruises,

Became 2nd nature. Start Day 1 to use the dispensers at each public facility doorway, food area and toilets. Got splodged at dinner time by the staff at restaurant doors before they let you past.

Soon spot people that take it for granted or don't believe it helps

Stu

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#2413171 5-Feb-2020 16:38

Except apparently hand sanitizers don't work on norovirus, which is why cruise ships are replacing sanitizer stations with wash stations. Not sure if hand sanitizers work with the coronavirus.

People often mistake me for an adult because of my age.

Keep calm, and carry on posting.

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Rikkitic

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#2413173 5-Feb-2020 16:41

Antibiotics don't kill viruses. A lot of people have trouble making that distinction.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Scott3

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#2413195 5-Feb-2020 17:09

Alcohol based sanitises do kill viruses.

mattwnz

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#2413201 5-Feb-2020 17:20

I have noticed that there are a few articles in NZ mainstream media under playing this, and saying it isn't much worse than the flu or cold. But did you see the speed that they built that hospital on China in just a few days on readiness for an influx of cases. Obviously they are now treating it seriously. If more than 10 percent are needing to be put on respirators and 3 percent are dying from it, and we don't really know that much about it then I think it is a serious concern. There potentially could be people on NZ with it but due to the long period it takes before people show symptoms, it is impossible to know.

Fred99

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#2413203 5-Feb-2020 17:21

Rikkitic:

Antibiotics don't kill viruses. A lot of people have trouble making that distinction.

This is true, but it's also true that hospitalised patients are being given ABs. One of the symptoms is leukopenia / low white blood cell count, so patients are immuno-suppressed to some degree thus prone to infections. Some treatments in the early stages may have exacerbated that (steroids). Secondary bacterial or fungal infections are a problem. This creates another problem because of AB resistance - they can't know for sure if a patient with nCoV has a resistant secondary infection or not unless they do a culture and run susceptibility tests (of the ie bacteria to a range of ABs) and because the patient is so unwell they can't wait for the time it takes to get results. So they make an assumption about what likely resistant infections are in the area, and hit the patient with a mix of hopefully effective ABs. Hospitals are also hotbeds for resistant organisms.

It's pretty common for people to be given ABs (prophylactically) and ie prednisone for mild viral pneumonia. WHO have issued an instruction to not give steroids in cases of nCoV. It's also true that colds and flu can cause leukopenia / low white cell count. There are a hell of a lot of potential "opportunistic" pathogens that normally wouldn't bother you and that you may be harbouring anyway, but if immuno-suppressed could become a big problem.

Oblivian

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#2413220 5-Feb-2020 17:29

At least FA get the commercial logged plans right

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ZKOKE/history/20200204/1500Z/ZHHH/NZAA

Last stretch

Scott3

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#2413224 5-Feb-2020 17:36

mattwnz: I have noticed that there are a few articles in NZ mainstream media under playing this, and saying it isn't much worse than the flu or cold. But did you see the speed that they built that hospital on China in just a few days on readiness for an influx of cases. Obviously they are now treating it seriously. If more than 10 percent are needing to be put on respirators and 3 percent are dying from it, and we don't really know that much about it then I think it is a serious concern. There potentially could be people on NZ with it but due to the long period it takes before people show symptoms, it is impossible to know.

This is weird. There is one from a prominent doctor, calling out misinfomation, yet quoting facts that are inconsistent with the stance of credible organisations. And not acknowledging the uncertainty around the situation.

This is compounded by having different authorities with different stances. i.e. WHO recommends no travel restrictions, yet the governments of NZ, Aust, USA, Philippines, Singapore etc have decided to go against that advice.

Companions to the flu are a little odd to (generally saying don't worry about this new thing, as normal flu kills 400,000 per year).

It is widely accepted that 2019-nCoV is similar to double the contagiousness, and about 20x more deadly, so this doesn't reduce my level of concern.

tdgeek

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#2413281 5-Feb-2020 19:08

mattwnz: I have noticed that there are a few articles in NZ mainstream media under playing this, and saying it isn't much worse than the flu or cold. But did you see the speed that they built that hospital on China in just a few days on readiness for an influx of cases. Obviously they are now treating it seriously. If more than 10 percent are needing to be put on respirators and 3 percent are dying from it, and we don't really know that much about it then I think it is a serious concern. There potentially could be people on NZ with it but due to the long period it takes before people show symptoms, it is impossible to know.

IMO China has always treated it seriously. Do you imagine any country quaranting cities of that size? 50 million overall. A few articles I've read applaud that for containment reasons. The massive population and the even "massiver" travel that Chinese so, means that if that lock down was not in place it could be rampant everywhere, instead of rampant mainly in the Hubei area.

Fred99

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#2413450 6-Feb-2020 09:45

There's inconsistency in WHO reaction to travel bans. They endorse China's response - despite the fact that it's incredibly hard to enforce domestic travel bans, but in the case of global travel restrictions - claim it's an overreaction.

Whether some pressure is being applied or not, we'll probably never know. But the theory (CT or not) that WHO see a risk of China not cooperating with them (as they appear on the surface to have been so far) seems plausible.

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