2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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19389 posts

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#2443012 21-Mar-2020 14:11

lxsw20:

They also did the dedicated elderly hour in the UK, that too did not turn out like you would hope. It was ridiculously busy and until/if the transportation network can catch up with demand, they won't have the stock anyway.

I think it is working in Oz. Most people travel by car to supermarkets here, and guessing that the roads are probably going to be less busy as more people work from home.

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tdgeek

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#2443013 21-Mar-2020 14:13

mattwnz:

I do wonder why we aren't blanket testing everyone coming into NZ, as that is coming into NZ from ? Or is it a case that their are too many incoming people for the number of people testing? If so, IMO they should all go into quarantine.

60 flights in today just AKL alone. That say 60x 200 all Kiwis or residents. WE can teat 1500 a day or a bit more. Thats the same per capita as South Korea which is the gold standard so far. The Dr says we test who we should test, no one else.

lxsw20

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#2443015 21-Mar-2020 14:15

I'm not talking about people getting to the supermarket, i'm talking about the actual product making its way from manufacturer to shop floor. Logistics just can not keep up with current demand.

mattwnz

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#2443016 21-Mar-2020 14:18

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

I do wonder why we aren't blanket testing everyone coming into NZ, as that is coming into NZ from ? Or is it a case that their are too many incoming people for the number of people testing? If so, IMO they should all go into quarantine.

60 flights in today just AKL alone. That say 60x 200 all Kiwis or residents. WE can teat 1500 a day or a bit more. Thats the same per capita as South Korea which is the gold standard so far. The Dr says we test who we should test, no one else.

Yeap that's the problem, which is why IMO these people should be going into quarantine if they can't all be tested when they come in. The WHO is telling countries to Test test test. A town in Italy has done blanket testing on everyone, and that town apparently is getting it under control. I wonder how much testing China did in their actions, and whether they were testing everyone. I do wonder if the Wairarapa case is seen as being CT and the area is changed to level 3, whether they will start testing a lot more in this area to get an idea of the level of what the CT is.

tdgeek

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#2443019 21-Mar-2020 14:20

mattwnz:

The whole thing has been caused by people travelling into NZ with virus. If we knew what we do today, a couple of months ago, I suspect we would have blocked incoming travel straight away as a proactive move to act early. But then they would have had so many people complaining etc. Next time it occurs, I would hope things will be done differently. I almost think that when this is all over, that future travel from some higher risk countries, may involve forms of quarantine as standard.

Agree.All our cases come from planes. It took to today that we have have two cases that might be CT, but they also came from planes. If all countries blocked incoming flights and I mean ALL flights, then you have two issues.

1. No inter country spread, so each country can better manage what it already has. (Yes land borders are a big issue)

2. There would need to be something in place so that Kiwis stuck in Albania, and Turks stuck in NZ are fully covered, they wont miss out on care.

alasta

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#2443021 21-Mar-2020 14:23

Mahon:

k14: Anyone have the definition of "unnecessary domestic travel"? Can we travel within our own region? Go to a cafe for lunch/dinner, drive 30 mins to the nearest town to take the kids to the playground? Understand not traveling from say Chch to Auckland for the weekend but where to draw the line?

IS your travel NECESSARY or not?

Its really all about thinking of your community now, not just yourself.

It's not that black and white.

I had a trip planned over Easter which involved going to Central Otago for leisure, and then spending some time with parents (over 70) in Nelson. Obviously I will cancel the Central Otago leg, but the Nelson leg is a more difficult decision given the recommendation around older people not leaving the house.

Oblivian

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#2443022 21-Mar-2020 14:24

You cannot prove there is 200 people on each of those flight's. And think you will find it further from the real figure

There are more leaving than arriving

alasta

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#2443023 21-Mar-2020 14:26

What I want to know is how much notice will we get if we move to a total lockdown situation (i.e. level 4)? I have a vulnerable contact who I would want to check on before deciding whether to spend the lockdown period at her place or return home.

Or would the level 4 restrictions still allow people to make personal visits to people who they genuinely need to check up on? It's quite unclear from that basic summary PDF.

My concern is that the authorities may not give any advance notice for fear that it may spark panic shopping, etc.

mattwnz

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#2443025 21-Mar-2020 14:31

alasta:

What I want to know is how much notice will we get if we move to a total lockdown situation (i.e. level 4)? I have a vulnerable contact who I would want to check on before deciding whether to spend the lockdown period at her place or return home.

Or would the level 4 restrictions still allow people to make personal visits to people who they genuinely need to check up on? It's quite unclear from that basic summary PDF.

My concern is that the authorities may not give any advance notice for fear that it may spark panic shopping, etc.

This is the problem I am finding, there is a lack of information, and a lack of detailed information. Yes, what does level 3 and 4 involve in terms of travel in and out, and are people liekly to be cut off. As they gave a good amount of time for air travellers to come into NZ, I would be surprised if they just instantly block the entry into town. What would happen if you couldn't get home, where would you stay and who would cover the costs involved if you have no money on you, it potentially leaves those people vulnerable.
I would also like to see them do all announcements with the PM and MOH combined, rather than them putting out different announcements which are linked. I would also like to see the MOH staying and answering all questions, and not limiting the time like they have been.

The PM has advised that all people over 70 should 'stay at home'. Is that therefore the same as 'self isolating', in the same way that someone traveled from overseas should go into self isolation. eg They therefore must not go to the supermarket etc? IMO if so, this is huge move, and makes having a dedicated hour for older people to shop a moot point. Who is going to be doing their shopping for them, as many may not use computers for online ordering ?

cddt

659 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2443026 21-Mar-2020 14:34

tdgeek:

Post the announcement on Newshub they went to a commentator to discuss it. She said when she was driving home last night, through Ponsonby, that bars and restaurants were packed. She says we arent taking it seriously, the public need to play ball.

Those people are like many I know: they trust the authorities to shut bars and restaurants (and shops, cafes, churches, etc.) if the risk becomes too great. We can't both ask people to stay away from bars but allow the bars to remain open. People will keep shopping, eating out, going to church, etc. until those places are closed.

gzt

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#2443035 21-Mar-2020 14:44

mattwnz: The PM has advised that all people over 70 should 'stay at home'. Is that therefore the same as 'self isolating', in the same way that someone traveled from overseas should go into self isolation. eg They therefore must not go to the supermarket etc? IMO if so, this is huge move, and makes having a dedicated hour for older people to shop is a moot point.

No, it is not the same. Stay at home is a recommendation for the safety of that population and is entirely voluntary.

dogstar001

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#2443037 21-Mar-2020 14:48

tdgeek:
dogstar001: Why are bars/cafes/restaurants still open at this point? We are looking at 1000 cases in about 14 days. At which point our healthcare system is overloaded.

I want to see what happens when incoming flights drop off. Because of those we are importing cases daily. They will turn up as cases in a few days to a week. IMHO, those new cases that are travel related arent NZ's current internal Covid-19 situation.

As always TDGEEK I admire your optimism. My understanding is these two individuals have no relationship to any confirmed overseas import cases. So they got it from an unknown community source.
I believe the horse has bolted with containment. We should accept unknown CT moving forward

You are a numbers guy correct? What matters now is the number of kiwis are going to lose their lives. Will it be 20000 or 100,000. With a healthcare system not a capacity the death rate is about 1%.NZ has about 60 spare ICU/HDU beds. About 5%of Coronavirus cases require these beds. This means after 1200 cases their aren't ICU beds available. If the bed isn't available the patient dies. This effectively means our death rate is 5% after 1200 cases. Or mathematically if x is the number of cases. Prior to 1200 our death rate = 1200 *.01, or 12. After 1200 cases it is (1200*.01) +((x-1200).05). at 1200 cases the death rate is 12. at 2000 cases it is 52. So a 66% increase in cases causes a 433% increase in deaths in this scenario.

I'm not being the bad guy here, just being realistic. we need be aggressive & shut social venues down asap( cafes, bars, restaurants, churches). Slow down the spread so that our healthcare systems capacity isn't exceeded. if we wait it will be to late

freitasm

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#2443038 21-Mar-2020 14:50

@Rikkitic:

freitasm:

@frednz. One last time: ALL over 70s should stay at home.

Please stop this. Someone close to me is over 70, has cancer, has to frequently travel to the hospital for essential treatments. There are good reasons why some people over 70 can't stay home.

I usually have no problems with your comments but this is over the top. It's pretty obvious that someone that needs to go to a hospital is not required to stay home. It should be clear enough that this means not going out socialising, having dinner with friends, playing cards, etc.

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mattwnz

19389 posts

Uber Geek

#2443039 21-Mar-2020 14:53

gzt:
mattwnz: The PM has advised that all people over 70 should 'stay at home'. Is that therefore the same as 'self isolating', in the same way that someone traveled from overseas should go into self isolation. eg They therefore must not go to the supermarket etc? IMO if so, this is huge move, and makes having a dedicated hour for older people to shop is a moot point.

No, it is not the same. Stay at home is a recommendation for the safety of that population and is entirely voluntary.

In that case, Stuffs website red banner headline is wrong, as it states that over 70's are to 'self isolate'. They should be providing correct information.My parents are over 70 and they thought had been required to self isolate.

cshwone

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#2443040 21-Mar-2020 14:53

Info on the Wairarapa case

https://www.facebook.com/pg/cartertondistrictcouncil/posts/

Carterton District Council

Media Statement – COVID-19 UPDATE

On behalf of Carterton Mayor Greg Lang

This afternoon the Ministry of Health confirmed Wairarapa’s first case of COVID-19. Out of interest to our close-knit community, and with the permission of the affected staff members, we can now confirm that this case is a Carterton District Council staff member.

The person did everything right and went into self-isolation as soon as they started to show symptoms. That included not coming into work.

We are confident the proactive measures we had in place, including additional cleaning and physical distancing among staff, have mitigated the potential of the virus spreading.

Public Health has advised us that all close contacts have been traced. Further information on the case, including numbers of people identified as close and casual contacts and their testing, will come directly from the Ministry of Health.

Public Health has advised us there is no need to close services. However, physical distancing is an absolute priority at this stage. We are also taking the extra precautionary step to have our facilities deep-cleaned this weekend. We can assure you that our public council buildings, which include the council office, Information Centre, Events Centre and library have been and continue to be safe environments. Any changes to our services or businesses being open will be continuously reviewed and updated on our website at cdc.govt.nz/covid19 and on our Facebook page.

I want to reinforce, we have prepared for this and are enacting our plan for managing pandemic situations. This includes immediately looking at how we can deliver our services in a different way – we will immediately be putting these plans into action.

Based on the Government’s advice today, we will be initiating remote working where it is feasible immediately.

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