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10414 posts

Uber Geek


  #2414192 7-Feb-2020 12:35
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Self-explanatory tweet from Flightrader24:

 


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  #2414193 7-Feb-2020 12:37
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Fred99:

 

Half of the world media seem to be reporting that Li Wenliang has died.  The other half are reporting that he's still alive.

 

 

Wikipedia says:

 

 

On 6 February, Chinese state media reported the doctor died at the age of 34.[11] According to China Newsweek (中國新聞周刊) news report, his heartbeat stopped at 21:30, and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation was used on his body. A rescue attempt was apparently made in vain.[12] According to several sources, including Li's colleagues, an ECMO was used to maintain his life 3 hours after his heartbeat stopped.[13]

 

 

So both could be right... he had died at 21:30, but was resuscitated (somewhat), to finally die at 00:30 7 Feb.

 

Or it could be the Chinese government inadvertently published the news before the assassination team had completed their work.

 

 


 
 
 
 




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  #2414194 7-Feb-2020 12:47
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I don't think the govt wants to terminate him. Doesn't help their popularity. Person did not compromise national/political security nor cause national embarrassment which is the other reason to terminate. He merely sent a text to his friends but they forwarded it and it went viral.




Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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Uber Geek


  #2414195 7-Feb-2020 13:01
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frankv:

 

So both could be right... he had died at 21:30, but was resuscitated (somewhat), to finally die at 00:30 7 Feb.

 

 

So if you put a cat and a lethal virus and a life support machine into a box....


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Master Geek


  #2414198 7-Feb-2020 13:07
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Fred99:

 

Beccara:

 

I dont think there's a country in the world that would "cope" with a new virus outbreak in a major city. Almost nobody has surge capacity, Ground zero would almost always be a lock down and recover/die at home setup once ICU's are full 

 

 

I'm not sure what the up to date NZ figure is, but ~ 6 ICU beds (incl. 4 ventilated) per 100,000 population indicates maybe 300 total.

 

 

 

 

Correct & at any one time about 3/4 are in use for other emergency's & 1/4 for the use of patients following serious elective surgery's. This means we can free up 75 free ICU spots if we cancel all elective surgery's. From what i have read, roughly 20% of patients of Coronavirus victims require ICU admission. 75 divided by .2 = 375. So 375 is the number of people that can get Coronavirus before our healthcare system capacity is exceeded.

 

Interestingly some countries (USA & Western Europe) have about 10 ICU beds per 100,000. Which puts them in a much better position that us to manage an out break. 


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Uber Geek


  #2414206 7-Feb-2020 13:13
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And the update today:

 

At 04:00 on February 6th, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 3,143 newly confirmed cases (2,447 in Hubei), and 387 newly cured cases (184 in Hubei), which were cancelled on the same day. There were 26,762 close contacts of medical observations. 962 new cases of severe cases (918 in Hubei), 73 new cases of death (69 in Hubei, 1 in Jilin, Henan, Guangdong, and Hainan), and 4833 suspected cases (2622 in Hubei) ).
  As of 24:00 on February 6, 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps had reported a total of 31,161 confirmed cases, a total of 1,540 cured and discharged, and 28,985 confirmed cases (among which 4,821 were severe cases), there are 636 cumulative deaths, and 26359 suspected cases. A total of 314,028 close contacts were traced, and 186,045 close contacts were still in medical observation.
  A total of 50 confirmed cases were reported from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan: 24 cases in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1 death), 10 cases in the Macau Special Administrative Region (1 case was discharged from the hospital), and 16 cases in Taiwan (1 case was discharged from the hospital).

 

Good and bad in that - the rate of increase continues to decline, but the "severe" case tally has increased by ~1000.  (note that the "cured and discharged" figure is cumulative not daily - that's increased by only ~400)


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  #2414209 7-Feb-2020 13:22
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dogstar001:

 

Correct & at any one time about 3/4 are in use for other emergency's & 1/4 for the use of patients following serious elective surgery's. This means we can free up 75 free ICU spots if we cancel all elective surgery's. From what i have read, roughly 20% of patients of Coronavirus victims require ICU admission. 75 divided by .2 = 375. So 375 is the number of people that can get Coronavirus before our healthcare system capacity is exceeded.

 

Interestingly some countries (USA & Western Europe) have about 10 ICU beds per 100,000. Which puts them in a much better position that us to manage an out break. 

 

 

Yes.  Various social media and news outlets trying to get out a message that this is a "storm in a teacup" or "no worse than seasonal flu" - are really not aware of the threat.  It must be stopped (if possible) - not rely on wishful thinking that even if it got to epidemic here "it wouldn't be so bad".  It surely would be very bad indeed. 40% more ICU beds per capita would only give an extra day before they were overrun - if any local outbreak progressed at the rates seen in China.


 
 
 
 


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  #2414233 7-Feb-2020 14:14
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dogstar001:

 

From what i have read, roughly 20% of patients of Coronavirus victims require ICU admission.

 

 

This can't be the percentage of infectees in the general population, given that China has 20,000+ infectees and would therefore need 4,000+ ICU beds. Even as a percentage of hospital presentations it seems outrageously high. So I'm guessing it's the percentage of patients admitted to hospital with Coronavirus who end up in ICU?  

 

So I think that 375 is the number of people that can get admitted to hospital with Coronavirus before our healthcare system capacity is exceeded.

 

On another tack, Coronavirus has a 3% mortality rate. Let's assume that they all go to ICU before they die. And, for want of a better figure, that the same number survive after going to ICU. That would mean that 6% of all Coronavirus infectees go to ICU. 75 divided by .06 = 1250 concurrent Coronavirus cases before we run out of ICU beds. But another question is how long each of those patients requires an ICU bed... if it's a relatively short time, we might be able to cope with more cases.

 

If you're going to get Coronavirus, it would probably be better earlier than later. ;)

 

 


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  #2414239 7-Feb-2020 14:23
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Fred99:

 

So if you put a cat and a lethal virus and a life support machine into a box....

 

 

Or indeed if, as seen on the news, you lock an old Wuhanese man (who may or may not be infected) in his house with some rice, he can't actually be pronounced dead until someone opens the door.

 

 


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Uber Geek


  #2414314 7-Feb-2020 16:33
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frankv:

 

This can't be the percentage of infectees in the general population, given that China has 20,000+ infectees and would therefore need 4,000+ ICU beds. Even as a percentage of hospital presentations it seems outrageously high. So I'm guessing it's the percentage of patients admitted to hospital with Coronavirus who end up in ICU?  

 

 

They've actually reported 4821 current "severe" cases.  Goodness knows how many are in ICU or some kind of improvised ICU - but presumably "many".

 

The cumulative total is only 1,540 "cured" + 637 deaths out of a cumulative total of 6,998 who are or were "serious".  So the fatality rate of "serious" cases has been about 30%, and 6998 "serious" out of 31,161 "confirmed" cases is about 22.5%.  So at the moment, fatality rate of confirmed cases is much higher than figures being bandied around.  But nobody knows the number of "suspected" cases that are infected (though they can probably guess), nor the number of undiagnosed cases that aren't reported and "suspected" because you can't know what you can't see. Nor can the fatality rate figure for severe cases be confirmed - not until a large cohort is either cured or dead - which seems to be taking weeks -  and not when you've got a situation they've got on a daily basis - 1,000 new "severe cases" coming in today, yet only 390 or so "cured" (plus about 75 dead) going out.

 

If it's like SARS or MERS, being cured/disease free doesn't mean you're necessarily "well" either.

 

The photos of closely stacked rows of beds they've got ready scares the hell out of me.  Especially as what's killing people probably includes many secondary infections. 

 

 


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Uber Geek


  #2414315 7-Feb-2020 16:37
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The number of confirmed cases on the cruise ship in Japan is now 41.

 

(Possible correction, some sites are reporting 41 new cases - so total 61)

 

Edit - confirmed as 61.

 

The index case was only on the ship for 5 days, January 20-25th.


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Uber Geek


  #2414378 7-Feb-2020 20:12
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Fred99:

The number of confirmed cases on the cruise ship in Japan is now 41.


(Possible correction, some sites are reporting 41 new cases - so total 61)


Edit - confirmed as 61.


The index case was only on the ship for 5 days, January 20-25th.



It doesn't look good. I had heard that there were rumours that this could have come out of a lab in the city that the outbreak occurred. Something doesn't add up imo including the way China are now handling it.



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  #2414383 7-Feb-2020 20:26
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Yup that virus research lab in Wuhan ... a virus escapes every 3 years. Each time the virus is stronger.

Resident evil 3.




Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2414391 7-Feb-2020 21:41
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Batman: Yup that virus research lab in Wuhan ... a virus escapes every 3 years. Each time the virus is stronger.

Resident evil 3.


If this actually occurred in a market which seems to be what they want us to believe, then what are they doing in that market for that to occur? Outbreaks in third world countries such as Africa, for things like Ebola are not uncommon and their standards of living can be very poor but they don't usually spread very far nto first world countries, because residents are too poor to travel to other country's. . But I suspect that because china has both rich and poor areas and the rich now travel the world, it means that it is mobile.

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Uber Geek


  #2414392 7-Feb-2020 21:49
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mattwnz: 
If this actually occurred in a market which seems to be what they want us to believe, then what are they doing in that market for that to occur?

 

See previous video early in thread of people eating wild animals with no idea of background source...

 

Ancient medicine still being used today. More animal choices and less known about em!


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