2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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856 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2415285 9-Feb-2020 19:44

This site seems reasonably up to date, or perhaps there a better source for the same data?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Last updated: February 9, 2020, 06:28 GMT

Coronavirus Cases:
37,556

severe condition
6,196

Deaths:
814

Recovered:
2,769

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alexx

856 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2415289 9-Feb-2020 20:04

Rikkitic:

Batman:

Well I really hope I'm staying on topic, as I don't want to be banned!

Here's an article from a reputable site, though it's an opinion piece.

I have travelled the world, places do not operate like it does here in New Zealand. However, places can also build a hospital in 10 days using the same culture, something that can't be done here in NZ given 10 years.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/08/chinas-culture-of-lies-has-helped-spread-the-coronavirus/

If this was from the New York Times rather than the New York Post, I would be more inclined to take it seriously. The Post seems to lean towards tabloid sensationalism. I'm not sure how credible it is as a source.

Perhaps there might be some truth in that New York Post article, but the interesting part is this:

"Steven W. Mosher is the President of the Population Research Institute"

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/population-research-institute/

"Overall, we rate the Population Research Institute Questionable based on extreme right wing bias, promotion of propaganda and pseudoscience, as well the use of poor sources, and lack of transparency with funding."

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Batman

Mad Scientist
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#2415291 9-Feb-2020 20:19

alexx:

Rikkitic:

Batman:

Well I really hope I'm staying on topic, as I don't want to be banned!

Here's an article from a reputable site, though it's an opinion piece.

I have travelled the world, places do not operate like it does here in New Zealand. However, places can also build a hospital in 10 days using the same culture, something that can't be done here in NZ given 10 years.

https://nypost.com/2020/02/08/chinas-culture-of-lies-has-helped-spread-the-coronavirus/

If this was from the New York Times rather than the New York Post, I would be more inclined to take it seriously. The Post seems to lean towards tabloid sensationalism. I'm not sure how credible it is as a source.

Perhaps there might be some truth in that New York Post article, but the interesting part is this:

"Steven W. Mosher is the President of the Population Research Institute"

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/population-research-institute/

"Overall, we rate the Population Research Institute Questionable based on extreme right wing bias, promotion of propaganda and pseudoscience, as well the use of poor sources, and lack of transparency with funding."

ouch!

wellygary

7378 posts

Uber Geek

#2415372 10-Feb-2020 09:38

alexx:

This site seems reasonably up to date, or perhaps there a better source for the same data?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Last updated: February 9, 2020, 06:28 GMT

Coronavirus Cases:
37,556

severe condition
6,196

Deaths:
814

Recovered:
2,769

I find this page run by John hopkins to be one of the best,

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It looks like we might be peaking in mainland China, ( we should know in a day or so) , also the log graphs do show a slowdown in the rates of growth,

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2415510 10-Feb-2020 11:57

wellygary:

It looks like we might be peaking in mainland China, ( we should know in a day or so) , also the log graphs do show a slowdown in the rates of growth,

There are a lot of "ifs and buts" about that. Accuracy of reporting for a start.

Hubei region report for the day is in, the daily tally for yesterday (Sunday) has increased from the day before. That's the region with the earliest cases, the most cases, and where some pretty severe measures were first implemented to reduce spread. The case mortality rate in that region is almost 3%, in Wuhan city the case mortality rate is over 4%. (871 deaths / 29,631 cases and 681 deaths / 16902 cases). There are more than 22,000 patients still in hospital in Hubei region, 4269 "serious" and 1236 "critical".

Yes - there are a lot of ifs and buts about that too. It's a developing situation.

Oblivian

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#2415534 10-Feb-2020 12:58

I can't find much to back it up, but the news ticker on the early AM programs had it that it has now exceeded SARS levels

NZHerald are now reporting it has been confirmed as aerosol capable (you may say what's the difference, previously it was thought to be surfaces or close proximity breathing.. now you could walk through it minutes later)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12307276 :(

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2415538 10-Feb-2020 13:08

Oblivian:

I can't find much to back it up, but the news ticker on the early AM programs had it that it has now exceeded SARS levels

NZHerald are now reporting it has been confirmed as aerosol capable (you may say what's the difference, previously it was thought to be surfaces or close proximity breathing.. now you could walk through it minutes later)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12307276 :(

It's easily exceeded SARS.

SARS cases / deaths 8096 / 774

nCoV cases / deaths >40,000 / >900

tdgeek

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#2415539 10-Feb-2020 13:09

https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/119386468/coronavirus-how-to-save-30-minutes-at-new-zealand-airports

Last paragraph says it all. Makes me wonder where we would be if the virus outbreak was not in China, and therefore not subject to the benefit of tens of millions being quarantined. The Chinese are also cautious as well, another factor in their favour. The article indicates that the rest of the world isnt helping the cause. Yet the country that appears to be doing everything it can, containment-wise, is getting the racial barrage and bad mouthing

tdgeek

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#2415542 10-Feb-2020 13:16

Fred99:

Oblivian:

I can't find much to back it up, but the news ticker on the early AM programs had it that it has now exceeded SARS levels

NZHerald are now reporting it has been confirmed as aerosol capable (you may say what's the difference, previously it was thought to be surfaces or close proximity breathing.. now you could walk through it minutes later)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12307276 :(

It's easily exceeded SARS.

SARS cases / deaths 8096 / 774

nCoV cases / deaths >40,000 / >900

I read somewhere recently that travel in China was not nearly as high as it is these days, that would tend to skew the comparison to SARS somewhat? Assuming that SARS had a higher R0, yet nCoV has spread further, despite the quarantine efforts

Oblivian

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#2415544 10-Feb-2020 13:18

Fred99:

It's easily exceeded SARS.

SARS cases / deaths 8096 / 774

nCoV cases / deaths >40,000 / >900

More digging, seems as of this AM figures some sources worked off were at 813 after 89 added (724 prior). So that''s where the exceeds comes from.

But yeah, the numbers/time also greater

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2415553 10-Feb-2020 13:31

Oblivian:

Fred99:

It's easily exceeded SARS.

SARS cases / deaths 8096 / 774

nCoV cases / deaths >40,000 / >900

More digging, seems as of this AM figures some sources worked off were at 813 after 89 added (724 prior). So that''s where the exceeds comes from.

But yeah, the numbers/time also greater

The figures above were latest Chinese official figures - link: http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/167a0e01b2d24274b03b2ca961107929.shtml

As of 24:00 on February 9, according to reports from 31 provinces (autonomous regions, municipalities) and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, there were 35,982 confirmed cases (of which 6,484 were severe cases), a total of 3,281 discharged cases were cured, and 908 died. A total of 40,171 confirmed cases have been reported (87 cases in Hubei, 1 case in Jiangxi and Gansu), and 23,589 suspected cases. A total of 399,487 close contacts were traced, and 187,518 close contacts were still in medical observation.
　　A total of 64 confirmed cases were reported from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan: 36 cases in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (1 death), 10 cases in the Macau Special Administrative Region (1 case was discharged from the hospital), and 18 cases in Taiwan (1 case was discharged from the hospital).

The figures for SARS are "probable" and total for the first 9 months of the epidemic. (there were a few cases after that - but not outbreaks as seen earlier). We're only 3 months down the track with nCoV.
As for the actual mortality rate of SARS in China, it's conspicuous that the mortality rate they reported was 6.6% - very very low compared to rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Canada, and Singapore - where they also had significant outbreaks.

Oblivian

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#2415558 10-Feb-2020 13:46

I'm not trying to discount the actual numbers or sources in my attempts to bring it to light despite them being thrown back at me as far exceeding.

But it doesn't discount that before the latest updates. What I was trying to pass on rings true. It was pre-sars in your update on the 8th

, and 722 have died

And since Exceeds. So in the last 24hrs. Not like it has been that way for 'ages'

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2415574 10-Feb-2020 14:17

tdgeek:

I read somewhere recently that travel in China was not nearly as high as it is these days, that would tend to skew the comparison to SARS somewhat? Assuming that SARS had a higher R0, yet nCoV has spread further, despite the quarantine efforts

I'd be certain that there's much more travel within China.

Estimated R0 isn't a very useful figure yet. One index case infected 70 on a cruise ship in a couple of weeks, maybe they'll be able to break that down and find that he infected 8, and those eight each infected 8 others - maybe not. It's not something seen elsewhere, so it's highly likely that the fact this happened a cruise ship was related to the apparently high r0 seen there. If - as seems to be the case - that people can be infectious without showing symptoms, thus can be infected asymptomatically, then how do you estimate an r0 when there's no way of knowing total cases - as many are undiagnosed? I'd take estimates of r0 for nCoV with a grain of salt until much more is known.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2415576 10-Feb-2020 14:26

Oblivian:

I'm not trying to discount the actual numbers or sources in my attempts to bring it to light despite them being thrown back at me as far exceeding.

But it doesn't discount that before the latest updates. What I was trying to pass on rings true. It was pre-sars in your update on the 8th
, and 722 have died
And since Exceeds. So in the last 24hrs. Not like it has been that way for 'ages'

There are all kinds of inconsistencies in reporting (ie some China provinces are apparently reporting asymptomatic cases with positive rRT-PCR tests as "confirmed cases" - and some aren't), and many sites are slow updating numbers.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2415578 10-Feb-2020 14:27

From the DG of WHO:

"The detection of a small number of cases may indicate more widespread transmission in other countries; in short, we may only be seeing the tip of the iceberg."

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