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BDFL - Memuneh
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  #2406964 26-Jan-2020 09:57
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  #2406984 26-Jan-2020 12:09
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Yes, a great read, particularly about the size of the virus, smaller than mask gaps, and adding a bit of alkaline to the body. Plus many other points.


 
 
 
 


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  #2407009 26-Jan-2020 13:35
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That may be interesting but is not a reliable source.  

 

The references to a supposed protective effect by increasing body pH by drinking alkaline water or bicarbonate is bunkum.

 

It's nonsense speculating about the increased contagious nature of the Wuhan virus being due to smaller size of the virus relative to influenza virus, the coronaviruses are about the same size as influenza A, about 100nm. (0.1 um). He states 300nm for "'flu" - and that's not correct. Measles virus is on average larger - yet that's incredibly contagious. (the viruses mentioned are all pleomorphic - they vary in size and shape).

 

The assumption that it's primarly going to affect the elderly is also possibly not correct - though obviously anybody older and with other serious health conditions is more at risk of dying, it'll presumably be very bad for the very young as well as the old.  But there's more to it than that - the pneumonia is presumably resulting from "cytokine storm" as with SARS and also assumed to be the reason why the 1918-20 "Spanish 'flu" killed a disproportionately high number of fit young people (in their 20s to 40s).  Don't assume that the first deaths are skewed to the elderly because that's how the disease works - it's likely that older people were first infected (and first to start dying) because they were the ones buying live wild food in the market.

 

WHO, the US CDC, and NZ dept of Health etc should be used for information on recommended protective measures, not blogs or forums.


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  #2407011 26-Jan-2020 13:45
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Let's see how it (Numbers) climbs from here....

 

From CNN’s Steven Jiang in Beijing

 

The confirmed cases of Wuhan coronavirus has risen to 1,409 across mainland China.

 

According national and provincial health authorities, 42 deaths have been confirmed.

 

Confirmed cases in China:

 

Hubei (includes Wuhan): 761, including 40 deaths
Guangdong: 78
Zhejiang: 62
Chongqing: 57
Beijing: 51
Hunan: 43
Anhui: 39
Shanghai: 33
Henan: 32
Sichuan: 28
Shandong: 27
Guangxi: 23
Hainan: 19
Fujian: 18
Jiangsu: 18
Jiangxi: 18
Liaoning: 17
Shaanxi: 15
Yunnan: 11
Tianjin: 10
Heilongjiang: 9, including 1 death
Hebei: 8, including 1 death
Inner Mongolia: 7
Shanxi: 6
Gansu: 4
Guizhou: 4
Jilin: 4
Ningxia: 3
Xinjiang: 3
Qinghai: 1
Cases outside mainland China (38 total):

 

Hong Kong: 5
Thailand: 5
Australia: 4
Taiwan: 3
Malaysia: 3
Japan: 3
France: 3
Singapore: 3
US: 2
Macao: 2
Vietnam: 2
South Korea: 2
Nepal: 1


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  #2407017 26-Jan-2020 14:02
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I'm somewhat skeptical of the figures, I've read (social media posts originating in China - thus unreliable) that death certificates have been issued listing cause of death as "severe pneumonia" but that don't get added to the Wuhan virus toll unless there's laboratory confirmation.  On the other hand - so far nobody outside China has died.

 

Compare to SARS timeline, this is happening much faster.  

 

SARs first infection - mid-November 2002.  By 10 February - approx 2.5 months - 305 infections.

 

Whuan virus first infection -mid December 2019.  By late January - approx 1.5 months - 1700 infections.

 

This could be simply due to a single first case of an isolated farmer with SARS, yet many simultaneous infections with Wuhan virus from the market.


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  #2407019 26-Jan-2020 14:46
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Most problems are the result of previous solutions...

All comment's I make are my own personal opinion and do not in any way, shape or form reflect the views of current or former employers unless specifically stated 

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  #2407020 26-Jan-2020 14:52
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Beccara:

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

 

 

Helpful website keeping tabs on things

 

 

Going by some commentary here, everything that everyone else, or any other article sats is bunkum, or incorrect or nonsense.


 
 
 
 


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  #2407025 26-Jan-2020 14:56
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The New Zealand Government has convened the Interagency Pandemic Group and health staff will begin meeting flights from China as the deadly coronavirus sweeps across the world.

 

 

 

Waste of time if they dont include any incoming passenger whose recent travel history isnt taken into account. They already now that based on watching potential drug carriers, so they can easily do that to capture anyone whose recent travel has included Wuhan since a couple of weeks before the outbreak and every other location that is a known infection area or close to one. Check 95% of potentials not a medium fraction. 


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  #2407052 26-Jan-2020 17:03
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Now: 2019 Confirmed Infections / 56 Deaths


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  #2407074 26-Jan-2020 17:38
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tdgeek:

 

Beccara:

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

 

 

Helpful website keeping tabs on things

 

 

Going by some commentary here, everything that everyone else, or any other article sats is bunkum, or incorrect or nonsense.

 

 

Instead of taking a swipe at other posters to this forum, how about providing some citations from reputable sources to refute criticism of things you seem to be claiming are unfair accusations of "bunkum".

 

There's presumably nothing wrong with the link Beccara posted, it's probably linking official stats to a mapping app to give an interesting graphical representation - not inventing things, though it did appear to look like the confirmed cases in Aus were somewhere near Alice Springs.

 

 


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  #2407078 26-Jan-2020 17:47
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msukiwi:

 

Now: 2019 Confirmed Infections / 56 Deaths

 

 

Of the 1982 confirmed cases in China, there are 56 deaths reported, but only 49 reported to be "recovered".

 

This according to the Wikipedia page, with usual proviso about relying on Wiki as a source.

 

 


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  #2407126 26-Jan-2020 18:10
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Its pretty scary stuff. 

 

I can't get that movie Contagion out of mind.





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  #2407133 26-Jan-2020 18:34
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703:

 

Is it true NZ doesn't have the lab technology to confirm any cases?

 

 

 

 

 

 

On News tonight,  testing  being done in Australia, will be able to test in NZ labs by end of week.


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  #2407181 26-Jan-2020 21:24
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Just received:

 

 

Public health staff will begin meeting flights from China from tomorrow, to actively look for signs of the novel coronavirus and provide advice, information and reassurance to passengers.

 

Health Minister Dr David Clark says the additional measures are being taken following the arrival of the disease in Australia, via flights directly from the city of Wuhan.

 

“The Ministry of Health has been actively responding to the novel coronavirus since 6 January, when it first sent out advice to GPs and DHBs. Chinese language health advice cards have also been being provided at the border. 

 

“Despite not having had any cases in New Zealand, the Ministry has an Incident Control Team in place and we are sharing information and working closely with international partners. The government’s Interagency Pandemic Group has also been convened as a precaution, to ensure New Zealand is prepared.

 

“Our response has been based on best practice, and in line with World Health Organisation advice.

 

“I’m advised that the risk of an outbreak in New Zealand remains low, but we are increasing our health response at the border as a precaution.

 

“Health officials began preparations for placing staff at our major airports last week, and we will have that in place for all flights from China tomorrow. 

 

“This builds on the work of border staff, who have been provided information about preventing the spread of the coronavirus and have been handing out health advice cards to passengers.

 

“In addition, as previously indicated, on Tuesday I will take a paper to Cabinet which will make the novel coronavirus a notifiable disease.

 

“I want to assure the public that New Zealand is well prepared for these sorts of situations – we are active and alert, but not alarmed,” David Clark said. 

 





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  #2407228 26-Jan-2020 21:53
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rugrat:

 

703:

 

Is it true NZ doesn't have the lab technology to confirm any cases?

 

 

 

 

 

 

On News tonight,  testing  being done in Australia, will be able to test in NZ labs by end of week.

 

 

 

 

It's interesting how much information you get by just looking at the genome data. 

 

 

 

Executive summary

 

Using 27 publicly shared novel coronavirus (nCoV) genomes, we examined genetic diversity to infer date of common ancestor and rate of spread. We find:

 

  • 27 sampled genomes are very similar, differing by 0-5 mutations
  • This lack of genetic diversity has a parsimonious explanation that the outbreak descends either from a single introduction into the human population or a small number of animal-to-human transmissions of very similar viruses.
  • This event most likely occurred in November or early December 2019.
  • There has been ongoing human-to-human spread since this point resulting in observed cases.
  • Using estimates of total case count from Imperial College London of several thousand cases, we infer a reproductive number between 1.5 and 3.5 indicating rapid growth in the Nov-Jan period.

 

 

 

 

"Nextstrain is an open-source project to harness the scientific and public health potential of pathogen genome data. We provide a continually-updated view of publicly available data alongside powerful analytic and visualization tools for use by the community. Our goal is to aid epidemiological understanding and improve outbreak response"

 

https://nextstrain.org/

 

 

 

 


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