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  #2415580 10-Feb-2020 14:31
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Fred99:

 

tdgeek:

 

I read somewhere recently that travel in China was not nearly as high as it is these days, that would tend to skew the comparison to SARS somewhat? Assuming that SARS had a higher R0, yet nCoV has spread further, despite the quarantine efforts

 

 

I'd be certain that there's much more travel within China.

 

Estimated R0 isn't a very useful figure yet.  One index case infected 70 on a cruise ship in a couple of weeks, maybe they'll be able to break that down and find that he infected 8, and those eight each infected 8 others - maybe not.  It's not something seen elsewhere, so it's highly likely that the fact this happened a cruise ship was related to the apparently high r0 seen there.   If - as seems to be the case - that people can be infectious without showing symptoms, thus can be infected asymptomatically, then how do you estimate an r0 when there's no way of knowing total cases - as many are undiagnosed?  I'd take estimates of r0 for nCoV with a grain of salt until much more is known.

 

 

What I bolded, I meant that there is more travel now than the SARS days. Internationally thats been exploding. Internally its probably more stable but still going, as the fast trains make it more viable to travel further and more often. The point I'm feeling is that the environment is so much different now (more travel and more quarantine) plus the accuracy of data from SARS was highly volatile. I feel that of SARS happened now, it would be much more widespread than it was in 2003. Sortof aligns re the ship you mentioned, nCoV is no more contagious there, but the environment harbours it.

 

I just find it hard to draw any compariosns to SARS or MERS as Asian travel is so much more frequent (more so internationally but also nationally) than 20 years ago

 

All just my gut feel though




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  #2415586 10-Feb-2020 14:53
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tdgeek:

 

I read somewhere recently that travel in China was not nearly as high as it is these days, that would tend to skew the comparison to SARS somewhat? Assuming that SARS had a higher R0, yet nCoV has spread further, despite the quarantine efforts

 



The entire China turns into a mad migration of 1 billion people in the Chinese New year period with a lot of partying (close socialising) . That's their only holiday for the year and it lasts 15 days. Imagine Easter Christmas labour day, queens birthday thanksgiving all lumped into one.





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


 
 
 
 


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  #2415593 10-Feb-2020 15:16
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Batman:

 

The entire China turns into a mad migration of 1 billion people in the Chinese New year period with a lot of partying (close socialising) . That's their only holiday for the year and it lasts 15 days. Imagine Easter Christmas labour day, queens birthday thanksgiving all lumped into one.

 

 

I'm quite aware of that, as are probably most people. Fortunately the birth of this virus was prior to that and NY was officially skuttled, and the culture sees the citizens scurrying for protection as well. Even in NZ there is a lot of caution. My wife is Chinese and oddly, from Wuhan. A level of the community wants to keep away for now, from the local community. Not all obviously. Seems to align with age, the older, the more cautious.


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  #2415618 10-Feb-2020 16:15
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Seriously is infectious disease expert doctor Mark Thomas trying to jinx us?

It would be a very strange person who'd been in China and who was sick in Auckland with a cough and a fever who didn't go and get some medical care, so I think we would be aware if there were a significant number of cases in New Zealand.

We don't seem to have any at the moment and I think it's likely we won't have any in the next few weeks either.

It seems like a movie cliche where someone say "well it looks like we're through the worst of it"

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  #2415657 10-Feb-2020 17:26
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kingdragonfly: Seriously is infectious disease expert doctor Mark Thomas trying to jinx us?

It would be a very strange person who'd been in China and who was sick in Auckland with a cough and a fever who didn't go and get some medical care, so I think we would be aware if there were a significant number of cases in New Zealand.

We don't seem to have any at the moment and I think it's likely we won't have any in the next few weeks either.

It seems like a movie cliche where someone say "well it looks like we're through the worst of it"

 

Maybe he said that before he read the "tip of the iceberg" tweet from Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus - Director General of WHO. 

 

 




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  #2415665 10-Feb-2020 18:07
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tdgeek:

 

Batman:

 

The entire China turns into a mad migration of 1 billion people in the Chinese New year period with a lot of partying (close socialising) . That's their only holiday for the year and it lasts 15 days. Imagine Easter Christmas labour day, queens birthday thanksgiving all lumped into one.

 

 

I'm quite aware of that, as are probably most people. Fortunately the birth of this virus was prior to that and NY was officially skuttled, and the culture sees the citizens scurrying for protection as well. Even in NZ there is a lot of caution. My wife is Chinese and oddly, from Wuhan. A level of the community wants to keep away for now, from the local community. Not all obviously. Seems to align with age, the older, the more cautious.

 

 

I'm sorry to hear your wife is from Wuhan but the fact is the migration happens before the Chinese New Year. The most important event is the New Year Eve. To be a decent Chinese son/daughter you'd want to be home before NY Eve. So people would have been travelling prior to that to make it home for the eve. The Virus was spread thanks to the migration. 





Involuntary autocorrect in operation on mobile device. Apologies in advance.


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  #2415676 10-Feb-2020 18:59
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This is a pretty old story, but just in case anyone thinks drinking bleach is a good idea, don't. Just don't.

This is not the first time people have been encouraged to drink bleach.

Conspiracy theorists are telling people to drink a dangerous bleach solution to cure or prevent coronavirus

Business Insider AU, by Gabby Landsverk

...Conspiracy theorists, including proponents of QAnon and a famous YouTuber, are claiming a chlorine dioxide mixture called “miracle mineral solution” can cure or prevent coronavirus.

The solution, previously touted as a “cure” for autism, has been repeatedly debunked by the FDA as dangerous industrial bleach.

...The FDA has warned that, not only is there no known cure for the virus, but the industrial bleach solution could have grave consequences, such as liver failure and extremely low blood pressure.

The “miracle mineral solution,” as it’s known online (MMS for short), is a solution of 28% sodium chlorite in distilled water. It’s sold online for around $US28 for a 4-ounce bottle. Consumers are instructed to “activate” the product by adding citric acid like lemon or lime juice (which are sometimes sold separately for an additional fee).

...Public health officials started taking action to debunk health claims about MMS in 2010, with warnings issued in the US, the UK, and Canada.

But the internet fad has persisted.

Last year, the FDA urged Americans not to drink the dangerous chemical cocktail after receiving reports of people experiencing severe vomiting, diarrhoea, life-threateningly low blood pressure, and acute liver failure after drinking the concoction.

On January 22, however, MMS proponents emerged again, piggybacking on growing fears surrounding the coronavirus.
...

 
 
 
 


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  #2415695 10-Feb-2020 19:58
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Fred99:

 

Maybe he said that before he read the "tip of the iceberg" tweet from Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus - Director General of WHO. 

 

 

Is that the same WHO that is/was against countries imposing travel bans?  If so, not sure if I'd trust him to sit the right way around on a toilet


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  #2415715 10-Feb-2020 20:48
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kingdragonfly: Seriously is infectious disease expert doctor Mark Thomas trying to jinx us?

It would be a very strange person who'd been in China and who was sick in Auckland with a cough and a fever who didn't go and get some medical care, so I think we would be aware if there were a significant number of cases in New Zealand.

We don't seem to have any at the moment and I think it's likely we won't have any in the next few weeks either.

It seems like a movie cliche where someone say "well it looks like we're through the worst of it"


She’ll be right....





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  #2415742 10-Feb-2020 22:09
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60 more confirmed infected on the cruise ship in Japan - total now 120. (source)

 

So from one index passenger on board for 5 days a couple of weeks ago - now 120 cases.  I doubt they've tested all passengers/crew either* - so there will probably be more.  (*Edit - that's confirmed by NHK News - they only tested people known to have had contact with infected people).

 

Sure cruise ships are infection factories waiting to happen, but that makes me very much doubt figures coming out of China.  They're not testing people who aren't sick enough - they're sending them away home with cough and fever to "self-quarantine".

 

Until there's a immunoglobulin test, then there's no test to know if someone had an undiagnosed case - but recovered.  This adds to the problem of trying to determine how many there are and have been - and what's likely to happen to undiagnosed cases.  

 

 

 

 


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  #2415754 10-Feb-2020 22:47
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Fred99:

 

60 more confirmed infected on the cruise ship in Japan - total now 120. (source)

 

 

Its loose,  

 

 

 

 

 

If you have 4-5 days of transmission while patients are asymptomatic then its really hard to contain in such an enclosed environment, 

 

To be honest unless you can quickly test everyone and then seperate the un infected, its probably too late, and a large number of people will catch it,, 

 

On the positive side its a 2% fatality rate, not 10%.... but thats still not flash...

 

 

 

 


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  #2415759 10-Feb-2020 23:04
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wellygary:

 

Fred99:

 

60 more confirmed infected on the cruise ship in Japan - total now 120. (source)

 

 

Its loose,  

 

If you have 4-5 days of transmission while patients are asymptomatic then its really hard to contain in such an enclosed environment, 

 

To be honest unless you can quickly test everyone and then seperate the un infected, its probably too late, and a large number of people will catch it,, 

 

On the positive side its a 2% fatality rate, not 10%.... but thats still not flash...

 

 

The rRT-PCR test isn't accurate because of sampling (the test itself is pretty good, they run negative and positive controls in the batches).  You can sample blood, stool, nasal scrape, swab, and come up with false negative results.  This was seen in the US - someone tested positive, then next day tested negative, the day after that - positive again.  So there's no guarantee that you can separate all the uninfected and safely release them from some form of quarantine. 

 

The fatality rate can only be guessed with gradually increasing accuracy until an outbreak has all either cured or dead.  In Wuhan the ratio of confirmed cases to deaths is actually over 4% now.  It's lower in outbreaks that haven't been going so long.


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  #2415777 11-Feb-2020 06:12
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Batman:

 

tdgeek:

 

Batman:

 

The entire China turns into a mad migration of 1 billion people in the Chinese New year period with a lot of partying (close socialising) . That's their only holiday for the year and it lasts 15 days. Imagine Easter Christmas labour day, queens birthday thanksgiving all lumped into one.

 

 

I'm quite aware of that, as are probably most people. Fortunately the birth of this virus was prior to that and NY was officially skuttled, and the culture sees the citizens scurrying for protection as well. Even in NZ there is a lot of caution. My wife is Chinese and oddly, from Wuhan. A level of the community wants to keep away for now, from the local community. Not all obviously. Seems to align with age, the older, the more cautious.

 

 

I'm sorry to hear your wife is from Wuhan but the fact is the migration happens before the Chinese New Year. The most important event is the New Year Eve. To be a decent Chinese son/daughter you'd want to be home before NY Eve. So people would have been travelling prior to that to make it home for the eve. The Virus was spread thanks to the migration. 

 

 

No need to be sorry, it is what it is. Yes, the New Year migration happens a bit before New Year, the main period of celebration is the 2 weeks after Jan 25. Travels often 2 weeks prior or closer. The virus was apparent in earlier January. There was a surge prior to the quarantine, and travel was outward. They escaped the virus, that IMHO is the key. The population of most areas would not change markedly as migrators travel outwards to family and inwards to family, but Wuhan lost 5 million they report. many stayed in Hubei, which part will be normal migration, part will be escaping. Many NY travels which might normally be to Wuhan will no doubt be avoiding Wuhan so family will migrate/escape to alternative family locations. Lots of options there as families are one child based, so many have a number of Aunties and Uncles who were prior to the one child policy. That many travellers left Wuhan but remained in Hubei province would support that, as while families do disperse over time, there will be more nearby-ish than far away. It would be interesting to know the typical migration and compare that to this year. 


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  #2416029 11-Feb-2020 11:19
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Batman:

 

arcon:

 

Batman: Never believe anything China says. But you can also include Iran, Trump, FBI, CIA, Putin, Russia, nth korea, w peters, etc. Just don't fully believe anything or anyone. But especially China. All lies.

 

What are you implying? It sounds a bit immature and off topic the way you've written it.

 

 

Well I really hope I'm staying on topic, as I don't want to be banned!

 

Here's an article from a reputable site, though it's an opinion piece.

 

I have travelled the world, places do not operate like it does here in New Zealand. However, places can also build a hospital in 10 days using the same culture, something that can't be done here in NZ given 10 years.

 

https://nypost.com/2020/02/08/chinas-culture-of-lies-has-helped-spread-the-coronavirus/

 

 

Wow that's great they can build a hospital in 10 days. If only they didn't need it in the first place by not contributing to the outbreak with a massive cover up of arresting doctors and promoting public gatherings when they knew about the virus. Pretty sure we wouldn't do that in New Zealand either.


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  #2416034 11-Feb-2020 11:24
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arcon:

 

Wow that's great they can build a hospital in 10 days. If only they didn't need it in the first place by not contributing to the outbreak with a massive cover up of arresting doctors and promoting public gatherings when they knew about the virus. Pretty sure we wouldn't do that in New Zealand either.

 

 

Does the same apply to the Middle East and Australia who also had outbreaks? I guess not?

 

Did you read the article on Stuff about a traveller arriving in NZ? Sobering reading. China for all its faults has massed quarantined what it can, yet it seems its a free for all arriving here, free and easy entry it seems. We can do better. Even when that traveller went through the US it was just "have you been to China?"


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